AMBASSADOR ENCOURAGES MONTEALEGRE TO FOCUS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001507 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NU SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR ENCOURAGES MONTEALEGRE TO FOCUS ON CAMPAIGN AND PARTY ORGANIZATION REF: MANAGUA 1482 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador, emboffs, and local IRI Director Gilberto Valdez met with ALN presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre on July 7 to express concern that ALN officials are not sufficiently focused on the campaign and encourage him to organize the senior leadership of the party. Montealegre agreed, informing us that the ALN will announce its leadership slate on July 17. He also discussed the party's financial situation, claiming that the Nicaraguan private sector is still not supporting him fully, despite its promises. Montealegre sought Ambassador's help in convincing PLC presidential candidate Jose Rizo to resign his position and join the ALN to unite the Liberal bloc. Montealegre believes that the new MRS formula may attract additional core Sandinista votes, even though MRS presidential candidate Edmundo Jarquin is not as charismatic as Herty Lewites because the new VP candidate Carlos Mejia Godoy is very popular. End Summary. MONTEALEGRE WILL WORK ON ALN UNITY - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) ALN presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre admitted to Ambassador on July 7 that the ALN is not as unified as it should be. He explained that juggling the aspirations of multiple parties has been very difficult, and many ALN activists are still disappointed with the final selection of Assembly deputy candidates. Local IRI Director Gilberto Valdez pointed out that the ALN had a greater percentage of candidates selected via primaries than any other party (the FSLN was the only other party to use primaries). However, many ALN politicos still believe they can secure a position on the candidates' list and are hence not focused on the campaign, Valdez continued. ¶3. (C) The ALN will announce the heads of the party campaign structure on July 17, Montealegre stated. The deputy candidates will be tapped to help Montealegre on the campaign trail, and party members will be given "jobs" to keep them focused on the campaign instead of jockeying for position within the party. He recounted that FSLN Assembly deputy Edwin Castro recently congratulated ALN campaign organizer Eliseo Nunez on the ALN's progress in developing its party structure. Montealegre also announced the ALN's "9 for Eduardo" initiative, in which each Eduardo supporter to recruit nine others to support his candidacy and ensure they have transport to the polls on Election Day (the "9" will also reinforce the need to mark Montealegre's box 9 on the ballot.) ¶4. (C) While Montealegre acknowledged that his numbers had dropped in the latest Borge poll, Valdez clarified that the questions in the Channel 8-sponsored Borge poll had been crafted in such a way to favor the two traditional party candidates -- Rizo and Ortega. Montealegre observed that popular support for the ALN as a party actually increased in the poll, from 6% to 18%, while support for the PLC declined from 32% to 24%. Valdez added that a new M&R poll, to be released on July 10, will present results in line with earlier polls showing Montealegre in close second behind Ortega and Rizo trailing. (Note: In the Borge poll, Ortega leads with 29.2%, followed by Montealegre with 22.4%. Rizo is a close third with 20.0%, and Lewites fourth with 14.9%. In earlier polls, Rizo trailed with 12% to 15% support. End Note.) NICARAGUAN PRIVATE SECTOR STILL HOLDING BACK - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Montealegre confided that he received $1.2 million in campaign contributions from Salvadoran businessmen during his July 6 trip to El Salvador, thanks to President Saca, who also promised to send advisors from ARENA to help the ALN with logistics and organization. Nicaraguan financiers, however, are still "playing games" and vacillating between the two Liberal camps. The ALN has only spent $850,000 so far on the national campaign, not including the Atlantic Coast regional elections. Montealegre claimed that PLC candidate Jose Rizo currently has $1.7 million at his disposal, but he does not know the source of the PLC funds. LOW HANGING FRUIT - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Poloff mentioned that several PLC mayors and other local officials are unhappy with PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman's management of the party and may be willing to support the ALN. Valdez agreed that the ALN must design a strategy to pursue and capture disaffected PLC leaders and voters. Montealegre responded that ALN National Assembly Jamileth Bonilla is working on such a project, but he will consider formalizing her role. Montealegre confided that the PLC leadership in Granada will publicly defect to the ALN on July 11 -- the date of the Liberal Revolution of Jose Santos Zelaya. MONTEALEGRE: PLEASE CONVINCE RIZO TO LEAVE PLC - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Montealegre asked the Ambassador to help convince Jose Rizo to renounce his candidacy and leave the PLC. The goal is to create one Liberal party after the elections, so if the PLC loses its legal identity, Liberal continuity is still assured, he explained. Montealegre stated that he could assure Rizo a deputy position and support him to run for National Assembly president. He does not have a plan to accommodate PLC vice presidential candidate Jose Antonio Alvarado, but noted that "not even Rizo trusts him." (Comment: We believe it is still too early to approach Rizo on this issue.) MEJIA GODOY MAY ATTRACT MORE SANDINISTA VOTES TO MRS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) Montealegre was confident that the new MRS presidential (Edmundo Jarquin) and vice presidential (Carlos Mejia Godoy) candidates named after the unexpected death of Herty Lewites (reftel) will draw additional Sandinista core voters away from the FSLN. He believes that Mejia Godoy will attract younger left-wing voters and the "nostalgic vote" of older Sandinistas disappointed with Ortega's betrayal of revolutionary ideals. Montealegre agreed with Ambassador, however, that Jarquin is too conservative to appeal to "the masses" the way Lewites did. COMMENT - - - - ¶9. (C) Montealegre was open to our comments and suggestions, agreeing that the ALN needs more unity and coordination to compete effectively in the elections. Emboffs will continue to work with ALN officials and others to identify PLC leaders unhappy with Aleman's meddling in the party. Convincing PLC members to support Montealegre is key to convincing Rizo that his candidacy is not viable and creating momentum for the ALN to present itself as the principal Liberal entity in Nicaragua. TRIVELLI