MONTEALEGRE WARNS A/S SHANNON, "LEWITES IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 001411 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA A/S SHANNON AND WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM NU ES SUBJECT: MONTEALEGRE WARNS A/S SHANNON, "LEWITES IS DANGEROUS" Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: ALN presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre warned A/S Shannon, Ambassador and others at a June 27 breakfast that MRS candidate Herty Lewites is corrupt, surrounded by unreformed Sandinistas, and likely to siphon votes from Montealegre. Montealegre and his advisors further discussed the influence of the Catholic Church in the elections, the role of the private sector, the youth vote, the ALN party structure, and the status of the FSLN and PLC. Montealegre made the following recommendations for further action by the USG: help convince the private sector to fully support ALN; urge the U.S. "Right" to support the ALN vs. the PLC; continue "get out the vote" and observation activities; urge Jose Rizo and Jose Antonio Alvarado to withdraw their candidacies; and, remind people that Nicaragua depends on external assistance and remittances, which could be jeopardized by a return to caudillismo. End Summary. HERTY IS AN "ENEMY OF DEMOCRACY" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Ambassador invited ALN presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre, vice presidential candidate Fabricio Cajina, and advisors Maria Eugenia Sequeira, Indalecio Rodriguez, and Enrique Gasteazoro to discuss the November 5 national elections with A/S Tom Shannon, Senior Advisor Maria Tamburri and Emboffs. During the session, Montealegre first complained that MRS presidential candidate Herty Lewites primarily draws support from independent voters who would otherwise incline towards him, and not from FSLN candidate Daniel Ortega,s "hard" base of Sandinista voters. Lewites will only capture 10-15 percent of the Sandinista vote in Montealegre,s estimation. Montealegre commented that Lewites is not a "serious" candidate since he lacks a party structure in many areas of the country, but he nevertheless has "a personality that is attractive" to the 16-25 age group. ¶3. (C) Furthermore, Lewites is "dangerous... an enemy of democracy" and corrupt -- the "Byron Jerez" for Daniel and Humberto Ortega, Montealegre called him, in reference to the erstwhile lackey of convicted ex-President Arnoldo Aleman who helped him steal millions in public funds. Montealegre claimed that Lewites, closest advisors are unreformed Sandinistas who will impose their Marxist ideology if empowered. (Comment: Although Montealegre,s personal dislike for Lewites is known to Emboffs, this was the strongest attack so far on his "Third Way" rival that we have heard. Montealegre,s remarks were likely incited by A/S Shannon,s recent referral to both Montealegre and Lewites as the candidates of Nicaragua,s future. End Comment.) VATICAN SHOULD REMIND OBANDO TO STAY OUT OF POLITICS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) A/S Shannon mentioned the role of the Catholic Church and Cardinal Miguel Obando y Bravo,s (the retired Archbishop of Managua) apparent support of the FSLN. Montealegre responded that it "would not hurt" if the Vatican reminded Obando to "stay out of politics." Montealegre remarked that Monsignor Bosco Vivas Robelo, Bishop of Leon, and Monsignor Juan Abelardo Mata, Bishop of Esteli, have been active on behalf of the PLC and FSLN. Bishop Rene Sandigo of Chontales, however, is a younger priest with whom Montealegre has good relations. He also mentioned pending guidance from the Catholic Episcopal Conference that will guide the clergy on their behavior during the election season. FINANCIERS MUST PAY UP BEFORE IT,S TO LATE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Montealegre complained that many private sector financiers still will not fully commit to supporting the ALN. He commented that many fear reprisals from the FSLN-controlled courts, and thus he is mulling over ways for contributors to make donations anonymously. Montealegre is planning a July 6 visit to El Salvador to meet with President Saca and businessmen from that country. BASEBALL DIPLOMACY: GOING AFTER YOUTH VOTE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Indalecio Rodriguez commented that the ALN must develop a strategy to attract the youth vote ) those who do not remember the Sandinista depredations during the 1980s. MANAGUA 00001411 002 OF 003 Enrique Gasteazo noted that "young Nicaraguans like sports," especially baseball. He asked about the possibility of funding to renovate baseball diamonds in rural areas. A/S Shannon inquired whether a meeting between Nicaraguan baseball players and senior USG officials would prove effective. Cajina responded that such a meeting would have a significant impact in rural areas. ALN HAS MACHINERY TO DEFEND THE VOTE, PLC WEAKENED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) A/S Shannon mentioned that many PLC supporters claim that only the PLC has the party machinery to confront the FSLN in November. Gasteazo responded that the ALN will have 100 percent coverage of the voting tables, mobilizing 15,000 party poll watchers (fiscales). He claimed that the ALN already boasts 200,000 registered affiliates with a goal of 350,000 by the end of October. The ALN is also working with the "Citizens, Crusade" NGO to provide transportation logistics for ALN voters on November 5, Gasteazo added. He commented that most ALN leaders and supporters are Liberals who defected from the PLC, leaving that party eviscerated. ¶8. (C) Maria Eugenia Sequeira followed that the PLC is not really trying to win the election, but rather simply ensure that it retains sufficient deputy positions to continue the pact with the FSLN and to protect Aleman. Montealegre commented that the PLC's "hard" vote is 12-14 percent of the electorate, but could drop lower if Jose Rizo and Jose Antonio Alvarado renounce their candidacies. Many Arnoldistas in the PLC are angry with Rizo,s bid for independence from Aleman and will not contribute to his campaign, he asserted. Montealegre admitted, however, that many voters in rural areas will still &vote for the banner8 of the PLC unless the ALN can obtain the resources to reach them. MARCHING ORDERS - - - - - - - - ¶9. (C) At the end of the meeting, Montealegre made the following recommendations for further USG action: - Help convince private sector to fully support ALN. The ALN needs $10 million to run the campaign. - Urge the U.S. "Right" to support ALN vs. PLC. There are still some people that are giving hope to the PLC that the USG will somehow eventually make amends with Aleman to avoid an Ortega victory. - Continue "get out the vote" and observation activities. - Urge Jose Rizo and Jose Antonio Alvarado to withdraw their candidacies. Their withdrawal would convince many PLC supporters that the ALN is the only viable Liberal option and increase the chance of Liberal unity after the election. - Remind people that Nicaragua depends on external assistance and remittances, which could be jeopardized by a return to caudillismo. COMMENT: A TAD TOO UPBEAT? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) Montealegre and his advisors painted a rosy picture of ALN strength by rattling off numbers of affiliates and fiscales and proclaiming the "evisceration" of the PLC. In reality, the situation is more nebulous, with prominent local Liberals switching back and forth between the parties and cannibalizing each others' support without aggressively pursuing independent and Sandinista voters. The ALN leaders seem to have a sense of "manifest destiny" regarding their eventual triumph at the polls, believing that they will win because they deserve victory. The party must work harder to secure votes, however, especially in rural areas, to ensure success. ¶11. (U) Participants: Nicaragua: Eduardo Montealegre Fabricio Cajina Maria Eugenia Sequiera Enrique Gasteazoro Indalecio Rodriguez MANAGUA 00001411 003 OF 003 U.S.: A/S Thomas Shannon Ambassador Paul Trivelli Senior Advisor Maria Tamburri DCM Peter Brennan Polcouns Victoria Alvarado Poloff Timothy Smith (notetaker) TRIVELLI