C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001370

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM KDEM NU
SUBJECT: NUNCIO: CARDINAL OBANDO Y BRAVO WILL EXERT LITTLE
INFLUENCE ON NICARAGUAN VOTERS

REF: 2005 MANAGUA 2738

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Nuncio Jean Paul Gobel shares our concerns over
Cardinal Obando y Bravo's apparent support for Sandinista
(FSLN) presidential candidate Daniel Ortega, but he believes
Obando y Bravo will hold little sway over Nicaraguan voters.
Gobel, who on June 20 advised Ambassador he is perplexed over
Obando y Bravo's public proximity with Ortega, insisted that
privately Obando y Bravo does not/not support Ortega and is
more closely aligned with the Liberal Constitutional party
(PLC) and leader Arnoldo Aleman. In Gobel's view, Ortega
clearly maintains some sort of hold over Obando y Bravo.
(NOTE: Rumors have long suggested that Ortega is blackmailing
Obando y Bravo with information proving that the Cardinal
fathered children with his secretary and that he has engaged
in corrupt practices in his management of the private
Catholic University (UNICA). END NOTE.)


2. (C) According to Gobel, at this point the Vatican can do
little to stem Obando y Bravo's actions. However, Gobel
ventured that Obando y Bravo would cross the Vatican's "red
line" if he unequivocally endorsed Ortega's candidacy.
Faulting the media for "adding fuel to the fire" by according
Obando y Bravo's undue attention, Gobel commented that he/the
Vatican believe that Nicaraguans will respond more to
Archbishop Leopoldo Brenes' measured messages and the
Bishops' Conference election statement (possibly to be
released in August) than to Obando y Bravo's declarations.
The Bishops' Conference will urge Nicaraguans "to exercise
their right (to vote) and to use it well," explained Gobel,
who added that the message will urge voters to vote their
conscience, examine the candidates' platforms, and study the
past of each party.


3. (C) On the subject of presidential candidates, Gobel
asserted that the majority of Nicaraguans still regard the
FSLN and the PLC as the only viable parties. He recounted
how Aleman recently visited him and announced his decision to
withdraw from politics; not convinced, the Nuncio had laughed
off the news. As for Eduardo Montealegre, Gobel acknowledged
that he appeals to youth, Nicaragua's intellectual class, and
urbanites who appreciate his forward-leaning agenda.
However, uneducated Nicaraguans and rural voters are less
likely to grasp Montealegre's message. To succeed,
Montealegre must endeavor to reach these groups, especially
in anti-Sandinista areas, suggested Gobel.


4. (C) Gobel sought clarification regarding the recent
reported detentions of Nicaraguan bishops Jorge Solorzano and
Abelardo Matta upon their entry into the United States.
Ambassador explained that, to our knowledge, nothing out of
the ordinary had occurred, that Solorzano was fingerprinted,
as are many other foreign visitors. He added that the
Embassy is still awaiting clarification on Matta's case.
(NOTE: We found out subsequently that Matta was delayed for
20 minutes during his last entry due to a fingerprinting
anomaly. END NOTE.)


5. (C) COMMENT: We believe Obando y Bravo is close to
crossing the Vatican's "red line." We also expect Gobel will
report our concerns to the Vatican and he may draw on our
message to press the church to consider taking measures
against Obando y Bravo if he goes further in his public
support of Ortega. END COMMENT.

TRIVELLI