VERIFICATION SUCCESSFUL, BUT CSE NOTES SOME

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001359 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU SUBJECT: VERIFICATION SUCCESSFUL, BUT CSE NOTES SOME IRREGULARITIES Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (U) Summary: With over 45 percent of eligible Nicaraguan voters estimated to have verified their status and location on the official voters list (padron),the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) proclaimed the two-weekend verification process a success. This assessment was supported by observers from the Carter Center and the Latin American Council of Electoral Experts (CEELA). CSE officials noted, however, that a suspiciously large number of voters in Jinotega, Matagalpa, and Rio San Juan registered a change of address from the North and South Atlantic Autonomous Regions (RAAN and RAAS), where regional elections took place in March. The CSE will now focus on encouraging eligible voters to apply for their voter ID card (cedula) and register before the August 6 deadline. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Despite a slow start (only about five percent of voters verified the first weekend),the CSE estimates that ultimately an estimated 46 percent of citizens (1.5 million out of 3.4 million) turned out to verify their status and voting location in the padron on June 10, 11, 17 and 18. The turnout was lower than the CSE's goal of 1.8 million, but CSE president Roberto Rivas nevertheless pronounced the process a success. Senior CSE official Rodrigo Barreto told poloff on June 20 that CSE officials are very pleased with the verification, which registered a higher turnout than previous verification efforts, and the training they received from IFES. Barreto commented, however, that CSE officials did not receive full cooperation from the Ministry of Education in opening several voting centers on time, which impeded the process of verification in some areas. The CSE will now focus on encouraging eligible voters to apply for their voter ID card (cedula) and register before the August 6 deadline. After August 6, the CSE will compile the final version of the padron for the November 5 elections, Barreto reported. SUSPICIOUS POPULATION SHIFTS NOTED IN CERTAIN AREAS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) After the verification, Rivas alerted the press that 10,000 people in the department of Matagalpa and 8,300 in Jinotega (representing over two percent of all registered voters in those departments) had registered a change of address from the RAAN and the RAAS, where regional elections had taken place only four months before. Barreto privately informed poloff that a large number of voters also registered a change of residence in Rio San Juan. He opined that this movement of voters could explain the unexpected success of the PLC in the regional elections. (Comment: A number of our non-PLC contacts alleged that the PLC had temporarily transferred a number of supporters to the RAAN and RAAS to turn the outcome of the Atlantic Coast elections in the PLC's favor. End Comment.) MOST POLITICIANS SATISFIED, EXCEPT LEWITES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) PLC and FSLN officials expressed satisfaction with the verification on July 19. PLC vice president Wilfredo Navarro commented that he had informally checked the voting location for his wife and children, which could indicate that the formal verification number does not indicate the true percentage of voters who checked on their status. ALN Presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre was not particularly concerned about the turnout and stated that "many people already know where they are supposed to vote." Local Carter Center representative David Dye reported that a CSE contact told him that the ALN covered 98 percent of the voting centers with their "fiscales" to monitor the verification process, with the FSLN covering 78 percent and the PLC only 73 percent. ¶5. (U) MRS presidential candidate Herty Lewites warned that the creation of "virtual" voting tables (JRVs) for the verification process could confuse voters and contribute to electoral fraud by discouraging voters sympathetic to minority parties. Lewites advised the CSE to locate all new JRVs in the same voting centers to minimize confusion. (Note: When any particular JRV is projected to exceed its maximum number of 400 registered voters, the CSE creates a new JRV to accommodate the overflow. End Note.) The following day, Rivas responded by implying that Lewites is ignorant of the electoral process and the public has nothing to worry about. CARTER CENTER/CEELA: VERIFICATION A QUALIFIED SUCCESS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) A team from the Carter Center observed the final weekend of the CSE's effort to verify the padron. Observers were present in 15 of Nicaragua's 17 departments and regions. The Carter Center is planning to release a statement that praises CSE officials for carrying out the verification in a professional manner. The CSE received adequate material in good condition to document the verification, although some stations ran out of "change of address" forms (especially in Matagalpa). The Carter Center statement notes that at least two, and usually three, fiscales were present from the different political parties in the different voting centers. ¶7. (SBU) The Carter Center declaration also remarks on the apparent low turnout of citizens to verify, but offers the following explanations: citizens verified informally for friends and relatives; many did not bother to verify because they are confident that they are properly registered; CSE publicity efforts in some areas were insufficient. The Carter Center urges all Nicaraguans that have not yet verified to do so at CSE branches before the August 6 deadline. ¶8. (U) Representatives of CEELA also responded favorably to the verification process. Eugenio Chicas, a magistrate of El Salvador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal, commented favorably on the Nicaraguan verification process in comparison with others in the region and noted that the CSE seemed better prepared than when it conducted the Atlantic Coast verification last February. CEELA president Nicanor Moscoso offered the following recommendations to the CSE: increase public outreach efforts on verification and cedulization and remind the public of the August 6 deadline to verify/solicit a cedula; publish the electoral regulations; and encourage political parties to seek training for their fiscales. COMMENT: KEEPING AN EYE ON THE PADRON - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) Post is supporting efforts to encourage voters to verify and apply for a cedula if necessary. After August 6, the CSE will work to complete the final padron (to be published on October 5) for use on November 5. Post will monitor this process to determine if new JRVs are located far from voters' customary voting centers. TRIVELLI