NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS: LIBERAL CHONTALENOS FEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001193 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS: LIBERAL CHONTALENOS FEAR DIVISION IN RANKS REF: MANAGUA 0813 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Despite the May 31 deadline to register party candidates for the November national elections and the fact that both major Liberal groups determined to run separately, we found most Liberals in Chontales still hoping for a united front to challenge the FSLN in November. Supporters of dissident Sandinista Herty Lewites claimed that Lewites, alliance is just as "democratic" as the PLC or ALN. All parties are suspicious of the pact-controlled Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) and its local affiliates, and the departmental Etica y Transparencia (ET) representative warned of irregularities with the official voters list (padron) and problems with the distribution of voter ID cards (cedulas). End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Ambassador and emboffs traveled to the central Nicaraguan department of Chontales on May 31 to meet with local business and political leaders and discuss the upcoming national elections. We saw representatives of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN),the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS),the Chontales Ranchers' Association, the mayors of different municipalities in Chontales (PLC and Conservative), and the local ET director. Ambassador also took the opportunity to address the local "Book in a Box" English training program participants, interview with a Juigalpa radio station, and meet a group of Peace Corps volunteers. ALN OFFICIAL: ALEMAN IS DRIVING THE PLC TO RUIN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Like many of the ALN,s regional officials, ALN Chontales Director Elman Urbina was formerly the departmental director for the PLC. Urbina explained that the PLC's lack of internal democracy ) epitomized by Aleman's "dedazo" selection of President Bolanos ) set the party on an inexorable downward slide. He claimed that the division of the democratic forces brought about by Aleman,s mismanagement of the party cost the PLC Juigalpa (the capital of Chontales and a largely Liberal city) and other municipalities in the department in the 2004 municipal elections. Urbina described Jose Rizo and Jose Antonio Alvarado,s PLC caravan, which came though Chontales about two weeks ago, as a "failure," noting that most of the cars were from Managua, not local. ¶4. (C) Urbina stated that ALN presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre enjoys considerable support in Chontales, though the ALN is "weaker in rural areas." According to Urbina, over 4,000 Chontalenos voted in the ALN primaries to select departmental deputy candidates. He claimed to have close, productive relations with local ALN alliance partners (notably the Conservative Party and Resistencia). ¶5. (C) Urbina complained that the ALN has been unfairly excluded from the Departmental and Municipal Electoral Councils (CEDs and CEMs),which are still dominated by the FSLN and PLC, the traditional majority parties. The "second chairs" of the voting boards, reserved for third parties, were allotted to the MRS (Herty Lewites, alliance) despite the ALN's relatively greater presence in Chontales. He noted that the ALN is working with the MRS to try to prevent fraud, but frankly described a situation that occurred during the 2004 municipal elections in which APRE won a close vote in Cuapa, but the municipality was given to the PLC by the CED during negotiations with the FSLN. (Comment: Urbina is a reliable source since he was the PLC's departmental director at the time. End Comment.) MRS LEADERS: WE ARE DEMOCRATS TOO - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Ambassador also met with leaders of Herty Lewites' alliance (MRS) Manuel Moran and Ricardo Zambrana. When asked about Lewites' strength in Chontales, Moran claimed that the MRS is organized in every municipality, though admitted communication problems with rural communities due to bad roads and lack of phone services. He stated that Chontalenos are attracted to Lewites' "participatory government" proposal, which promises to analyze and resolve the needs and problems of the people and fight corruption of all types (including the FSLN-PLC pact). ¶7. (C) Moran claimed that Lewites will claim some 20 percent of the Sandinista vote from the FSLN. He asserted that many FSLN officials in Chontales secretly support Lewites, but are afraid to switch sides publicly because of FSLN intimidation. Moran also noted that the FSLN is accusing Lewites' supporters of being "pro-gringo CIA instigators." The Supreme Electoral Council is "100 percent controlled by the FSLN," Moran remarked, and is "preparing to commit fraud each day." Hence, local and international observation for the elections is essential. ¶8. (C) Moran and Zambrana expressed some consternation that the USG and other actors have labeled the Liberals and Conservatives the "democratic forces" in Nicaragua. Lewites' alliance also supports democracy, they argued, and is completely opposed to caudillo-style government and the PLC-FSLN pact. RANCHERS' ASSOCIATION BEMOANS LIBERAL DIVISIONS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (C) The members of the Chontales Ranchers' Association expressed their collective fear that the divided Liberal forces could permit an FSLN victory. One rancher observed that the Embassy's primary proposal was an "excellent idea" to unify the democratic forces, but was torpedoed by PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman, who did not want to surrender control of the party. They commented that the FSLN and PLC will use their influence over the CSE to commit fraud in the elections, so a strong observation effort is necessary. Notably, the two (visibly) younger members of the Association seemed more enthusiastic about the opportunity to select new political leaders and not quite so concerned about Liberal divisions. PLC MAYORS: EDUARDO IS A GOOD PERSON, BUT ONLY PLC CAN WIN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) The Ambassador's lunch with the mayors of Chontales was dominated by outspoken PLC representatives. The FSLN vice-mayor of Juigalpa confirmed his attendance, but did not appear. The PLC mayors echoed the positions of their counterparts in other departments: Montealegre is a good candidate, but only the PLC has the party structure to win elections; the polls are not reliable because they are manipulated by Montealegre,s allies; and Lewites, candidacy is a Trojan Horse ) he will withdraw before the elections. The mayors were not strong defenders of Aleman, but did back the party and supported the candidacy of Jose Rizo. Marina del Carmen Lorio, the outspoken PLC mayor of La Libertad, criticized Montealegre as an "elitist" and claimed that only 45 people in La Libertad voted in the ALN primaries. Turning to Conservative mayor of San Pedro Jose Ignacio Gonzalez, Lorio commented that even though he defeated the PLC candidate in the municipal elections, his constituents would vote for the PLC in the national elections. Gonzalez did not contradict her. ¶11. (C) The Director of the Liberal Association of Patriotic Mayors (ASALPAT),Novis Rosales, also attended the lunch. Rosales claimed that FSLN mayors and other officials are receiving advice from over 160 &electoral experts8 from Venezuela as well as paying bribes to rural voters to &clean the image8 of Daniel Ortega before the elections. Before the lunch, Rosales confided to poloff that four PLC mayors ignored the ASALPAT prohibition to cooperate with the Sandinistas in the Venezuelan program to provide discounted oil and urea directly to participating municipalities. He warned that the Venezuelans are planning to set up &Community Development Councils8 in the municipalities, which would presumably promote Bolivarian values and support the FSLN politically. Rosales shared a copy of an ASALPAT statement condemning the FSLN deal with Venezuela as illegal and an example of Venezuelan interference in Nicaraguan politics. He identified the renegade Liberals as the mayors of Rivas (Rene Martinez),El Crucero (Carlos Antonio Hernandez Garcia),San Rafael del Sur (Santiago Jose Ruiz Molina),and La Trinidad (Luis Jarquin Laguna). LOCAL ETICA REP WARNS OF PADRON IRREGULARITIES AND CEDULA PROBLEMS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶12. (C) The Ambassador later met with the local Director of Etica y Transparencia (ET),Melba Rosa Suarez, to discuss ET's efforts to review the local voters' list (padron) and distribution of national/voter ID cards (cedulas). Suarez commented that the local padron suffers from the same deficiencies at the local level as at the national level ) it contains a high percentage of deceased citizens and omits significant numbers of eligible voters. On the issue of cedulas, Suarez claimed that the CSE and CED are not serious about producing and distributing the cards. She commented that she has encountered several would-be voters who have waited years to receive a cedula and then sent on a wild goose chase by CSE officials trying to locate their cedula. The CED in Juigalpa has 1,800 unclaimed cedulas, she remarked. Suarez did allow, however, that the opening of the CEMs in June will presumably make cedulas much more accessible to the rural population. ¶13. (C) Regarding the elections in general, Suarez commented that the campaign in Chontales has not "heated up" yet. In her opinion, however, the people are tired of the traditional parties and ready to consider alternatives. COMMENT: WHAT NOW? - - - - - - - - - - ¶14. (C) The separate registration of party alliances and candidates in March (septel) for the ALN and PLC has thwarted the hopes of provincial Liberals for unity. Despite the PLC leaders' shrill assertions that only the PLC has the "structure" to defeat the FSLN, they also fear that the party will fare poorly in competition with the ALN. If young anti-pact Liberals and independents like the two cattlemen in the Ranchers' Association turn out to vote in large numbers, Nicaragua could witness a true political reformation. TRIVELLI