NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS: FIVE ALLIANCES EMERGE, APRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001057 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS: FIVE ALLIANCES EMERGE, APRE JOINS THE ALN REF: A. MANAGUA 0738 ¶B. MANAGUA 0711 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The deadline to register political alliances for Nicaragua's national elections in November came and went on May 11 without a deal to unite the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) and the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN). The big surprise of the day was APRE's decision to break negotiations with the PLC and join the ALN's alliance, while APRE's presidential candidate, Jose Antonio Alvarado, remained in the PLC fold. Previously, a large segment of Yatama renounced Brooklyn Rivera's decision to join with the FSLN and instead signed an alliance with the ALN, and the Alternativa Cristiana (AC) deserted Sandinista dissident Herty Lewites' group to register independently. Ultimately, five groups registered with the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) to compete in the national elections: the PLC, FSLN, ALN, MRS (Lewites' alliance),and the AC. End Summary. APRE SPLITS WITH ALVARADO TO JOIN ALN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) The rifts between the "Amigos de Alvarado" and the Alliance for the Republic (APRE),the party that had nominated Jose Antonio Alvarado as its presidential candidate, came to a head on May 11 when APRE split with Alvarado to join an alliance with the ALN. APRE leaders, led by party president Miguel Lopez Baldizon became increasingly frustrated with Alvarado's flirtation with PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman and lack of coordination in negotiations with the APRE directorship. Alvarado was likewise angered when APRE refused to include Ariel Granera and other close advisors in its list of departmental deputies to negotiate with the Liberal alliances. As a result, Alvarado signed on with the PLC in his "personal capacity" and with expectations for the PLC vice presidential nomination, and Lopez Baldizon signed a last-minute alliance with the ALN at 7:00 p.m. ¶3. (C) Comment: The reasons for the APRE/Alvarado split are legion. Lopez Baldizon feels, with some justification, that Alvarado usurped APRE to further his personal ambitions. He was also uncomfortable with the PLC's insistence that the APRE National Assembly deputies (Lopez Baldizon and Assembly president Eduardo Gomez) sign a letter supporting amnesty for Aleman. Poloffs kept in frequent touch with Lopez Baldizon on May 10 and 11 to remind him that Alvarado's stock has fallen precipitously since his public rapprochement with Aleman and that he would do better to negotiate a separate deal with Montealegre. Polcouns especially worked the phones on May 11 to "herd the cats" and encourage APRE to commit to the ALN. End Comment. ¶4. (C) At around 4:00 p.m. on May 11, Eduardo Montealegre registered his Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance with the Supreme Electoral Council. During a May 8 meeting with poloffs, Montealegre advisors Edmundo Leal and Pepe Matus explained that the alliance would register as "ALN" and not "ALN-PC" (Conservative Party) to avoid alienating Liberal and Resistance voters. In addition to APRE, the parties with a legal inscription (personeria jurdica) that registered with the ALN are the Conservative Party (PC),Nicaraguan Resistance Party (PRN),and the Liberal Independent Party (PLI). Montealegre did not announce his vice presidential running mate, but Leal and Matus reported to poloffs that Conservative Cristiana Chamorro is the likely choice, if she accepts. YATAMA LEADERS BREAK WITH RIVERA TO JOIN MONTEALEGRE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) A Yatama splinter group, led by Yatama Board of Directors President Adolfo Smith and Yatama Resistance leader Osorno Coleman ("Comandante Blas"),signed a political alliance with the ALN on May 10. Also joining the accord was PAMUC leader Mario Cordoba. Smith lambasted rival/pro-Sandinista Yatama leader Brooklyn Rivera for having made a "personal decision" to ally with Daniel Ortega, and announced that Yatama will hold a special assembly on May 13-14 to condemn Rivera,s actions. Coleman stated that the Miskitos will soon file a suit against Daniel Ortega and a number of his inner circle for crimes against humanity committed against the Miskitos during the Sandinista regime. (Comment: Embassy has encouraged both Smith/Coleman and Montealegre,s advisors to negotiate an alliance to break Ortega,s influence over Yatama. Also, Coleman is one of the Embassy's main contacts for CPDH,s project to reveal Sandinista Era abuses against the Miskito population. End Comment.) PLC LEFT WITH CAMINO CRISTIANO AND MICROPARTIES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) Despite the public displays of camaraderie between PLC presidential candidate Jose Rizo and Jose Antonio Alvarado, the defection of APRE to the ALN took the wind out of the PLC's sails. Alvarado continued to repeat his mantra of "Liberal unity," disregarding the evident failure of the PLC and ALN to reach an accord, and commented that his friends in APRE would follow him to the PLC. The always-petulant Maria Dolores Aleman (Arnoldo's oldest daughter and PLC Assembly deputy) complained that the Embassy had pressured Alvarado to desert the PLC and pledged that the party would work "tooth and nail" to win the elections. The only legally inscribed parties left with the PLC are the Camino Cristiano (those that did not leave with Delia Arellano to join Montealegre -- see ref B) and the tiny Multiethnic Indigenous Party (PIM). FSLN REGISTERS EARLY - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (U) The FSLN was the first party to inscribe its electoral alliance with the CSE. On May 8, FSLN leader Daniel Ortega formally registered the alliance under the name "Nicaragua Triumphs" ("Nicaragua Triunfa"). Ortega announced that the alliance would announce the nomination of its vice presidential candidate on May 28. A number of small parties registered under the alliance including, notably, Yatama, the principal party representing the indigenous peoples of the Atlantic Coast. Splinter groups of Liberals, Conservatives, evangelicals, and Resistance (ex-contras) also joined the alliance. THE "TIGER" IS READY TO FIGHT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (SBU) Sandinista dissident Herty Lewites registered his Movement to Rescue Sandinismo (MRS) alliance on May 10, quipping that he, the "tiger" (he sometimes calls himself the "Jewish Tiger," in memory of his Jewish father),is now ready to "hunt ducks (Rizo),rats (Montealegre),and roosters (Ortega)" -- referring to the animal caricatures popularly associated with those candidates. Despite rumors that Lewites, health has deteriorated, according to most reports, he appeared to be his spry, energetic self during Costa Rican President Arias, inauguration. According to Montealegre, who was on the same turbulent return flight home, Lewites half joked that they should not fly together, because if the plane were to go down with the two of them aboard, Nicaragua would loose its chance to reform. ¶9. (U) Lewites ran into trouble at the last minute when the CSE insisted that the MRS had to formally dissolve its previous alliance with Alternativa Cristiana (AC) in order to inscribe its new alliance. Lewites frantically called MRS president Dora Maria Tellez and AC leader Orlando Tardencilla to sign the dissolution documents at the CSE on May 11. ALTERNATIVA CRISTIANA ENTERS THE FRAY ALONE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (U) Orlando Tardencilla's Alternativa Cristiana (AC) decided to register independently after a public break with Lewites over campaign strategy following the March 5 regional Atlantic Coast elections. AC chose flamboyant former Sandinista and Contra commander Eden Pastora as its candidate. (Note: Pastora was the Managua mayoral candidate for the PLI in the 2004 municipal elections and won less than five percent of the vote. The Nicaraguan public now seems to view him more as a wacky celebrity than a leader. End Note.) COMMENT: ALVARADO'S STAR HAS FALLEN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (C) After emerging a year ago as a prominent "Third Way" Liberal candidate, Jose Antonio Alvarado has finally -- following innumerable meetings with all Liberal factions -- decided to return to the PLC fold. Montealegre, though frustrated with Alvarado's incessant bed hopping, was open to a deal until the end, but ultimately was unwilling to sweeten the pot enough to entice Alvarado away from the PLC. The loss to Montealegre may not be great, however, as Alvarado's poll numbers have slipped from around five percent to less than one percent following his rapprochement with the PLC. At this point, many anti-pact voters appear to be fed up with Alvarado, who would probably prove more a liability to Montealegre's campaign than an asset. TRIVELLI