ZAMBIA POLITICAL ROUNDUP

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001694

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIA POLITICAL ROUNDUP

Refs: A) Lusaka 1054 and previous; B) Lusaka 1652; C) Lusaka 1349;
D) Lusaka 702


1. (U) Topics Covered:

-- United Party for National Development VP Quits
-- Liuwa Constituency By-elections
-- Charges Against PF Leader Sata Dismissed
-- Threat to Ban Political Rallies
-- EU Election Observation Mission Final Report

Chisanga Quits UPND
--------------


2. (U) Patrick Chisanga, the Vice President of the opposition United
Party for National Development (UPND),resigned from the party on
December 12, saying that he had lost the confidence of UPND
President, Hakainde Hichilema. Chisanga recently generated
controversy when he said that Hichilema should not automatically be
named the United Democratic Alliance (UDA)'s presidential candidate
in the 2011 elections. The UPND is the most prominent member of the
UDA, which also includes the Forum for Democracy and Development
(FDD) and the United National Independence Party (UNIP). In leaving
the party, Chisanga follows other prominent UPND leaders who
resigned following the UPND General Assembly, July 13-14, 2006, (Ref
A) citing tribalism, harassment, and intolerance for leaders who do
not speak the Tonga language of Southern Province.


3. (SBU) Comment: Chisanga's departure weakens the UPND's claim that
it is a party with national appeal. Chisanga, a Bemba from Northern
Province, was the most senior remaining UPND leader from outside
Southern Province, UPND's home base. From its inception, UPND has
been accused of being a tribal party because it draws the majority
of its support and membership from Tongas in Southern Province.
Chisanga's presence in its senior ranks gave it a semblance of
national identity. Other well-known non-Tonga leaders who left the
party prior to the September 28 tripartite elections include former
UPND Vice Presidents Sakwiba Sikota and Robert Sichinga, and former
UPND Chairman Henry Mtonga, who joined to form the United Liberal
Party (ULP). End Comment.

Liuwa Constituency Parliamentary By-Election
--------------


4. (U) Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) candidate Lubinda
Imasiku won the December 7 parliamentary by-election in Liuwa
constituency in Western Province with 57 percent of the vote. The
by-election was triggered by the October 3 death of MMD Member of
Parliament (MP),David Maliwa Kashweka, who was elected in the
September 28 tripartite elections. The United Democratic Alliance
(UDA) candidate, Shuwanga Nyambe, was the runner-up in the
four-candidate race, receiving 28 percent of the vote.


5. (SBU) Local NGOs and residents in Liuwa noted a number of
campaign abuses in the predominantly rural constituency, which is
afflicted by hunger, lack of economic opportunity, and high poverty
levels. The ruling MMD capitalized on the region's poverty by
distributing food and clothing to the local population during the
year preceding the September 28 tripartite elections. During the
by-election campaign, the MMD was the only party able to cover the
entire large constituency, primarily because the party was able to
access government resources, including official vehicles. In order
to avoid rules prohibiting the use of government resources in
campaigns, sources say that the MMD disguised the vehicles by
removing official license plates and replacing them with private
number plates.


6. (SBU) The ruling party also allegedly coerced voters. At a
campaign rally in Liuwa, President Mwanawasa reportedly warned
voters that their constituency risked having no development if they
voted for any of the opposition candidates. Alternatively, he
promised voters that they would receive adequate food supplies,
fertilizers and clothing materials if they voted for the MMD
candidate.

Threat to Ban Political Rallies
--------------


7. (U) The government dedicated considerable state media resources
to damage control following a widely reported December 15 statement
by Deputy Minister of Home Affairs Chrispine Musosha that the GRZ
had requested the police to "stop issuing permits for political
meetings to all careless leaders." In comments that were reported
in local and international media, including the BBC, Mushosha said
that the decision to ban political meetings followed "the enormous
pressure that has been exerted on the President and his wife from
the opposition parties." Following the uproar generated by the
comments, Home Affairs Minister Ronnie Shikapwasha clarified that
the GRZ had not instructed the police to refuse to grant permits for
rallies. In the prepared statement quoted in front-page articles in
both government controlled newspapers on December 16, Shikapwasha

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said that that the Public Order Act (POA) would continue to govern
all public meetings and that the government would not issue
instructions to go against the law.


8. (SBU) Comment: Even if it was made without the GRZ's
endorsement, Musosha's statement reveals the ruling party's
frustration with the opposition party Patriotic Front (PF) leader
Michael Sata. The PF leader's steady stream of criticism of
President Mwanawasa, his wife Maureen, and the MMD (and the GRZ's
frequent and intemperate undiplomatic responses) has made him an
unwelcome media fixture, at least from the government's perspective.
End Comment.

Charges Against Sata Dismissed
--------------


9. (U) On December 14, the Lusaka Magistrate's Court granted a
defense motion to quash the indictment charging Patriotic Front
leader Michael Sata with over-declaring his net worth and filing a
false declaration of assets in connection with his presidential
nomination. (Ref B) The government alleged that Sata falsely
claimed 350 million Kwacha (USD 87,500) in assets resulting from a
judgment in a defamation case he had brought against former Minister
of Sport, Youth and Child Development George Chulumanda, although
the judgment had been set aside on appeal. In quashing the
indictment, the Magistrate's Court held that the Electoral Act
requires that candidates swear to their citizenship and parentage
but does not require the declaration of assets and liabilities to be
made under oath. Although the false declaration of assets could be
an offense under the penal code, the court ruled that because Sata
was charged under the Electoral Act, the indictment was defective.
The GRZ said that it would appeal the court's decision.

EU Election Observers Report
--------------


10. (U) The recently released final report of the European Union
Election Observation Mission to Zambia's September 28 tripartite
elections concluded that the presidential, parliamentary and local
government elections were "generally well-administered, largely
peaceful and offered voters a wide range of candidates to choose
from in a genuinely competitive process." (See Ref C for summary of
EU interim report). In a briefing for donors, EU Chief Election
Observer Annemie Neyts said that the 2006 elections were a "marked
improvement" over the elections in 2001. She singled out the high
voter turnout and the transparency of the Electoral Commission for
Zambia (ECZ) as particularly bright spots. Neyts also said the
voter education campaign conducted prior to the elections was
"generally successful," although she noted that voter education
efforts did not reach some of Zambia's more remote areas. (Ref A).
The EU report is available on the internet at
http://ec.europa.eu/comm/external_relations
/human_rights/eu_election_ass_observ/zambia/i ndex.htm

--Electoral Law Reform


11. (U) The EU report said that the Electoral Act of 2006, together
with other legislation, provided an adequate framework for the
conduct of democratic elections, but noted that the new law did not
incorporate many key reforms recommended in the report of the
Electoral Reform Technical Committee (ERTC) (Ref D). Of particular
concern was the GRZ's failure to reform campaign financing rules.
The report concluded that "together with the advantages of
incumbency, the absence of regulations governing campaign finance
resulted in an uneven playing field for contestants."


12. (U) To strengthen the electoral process, the EU observers
recommended that Zambia undertake a number of steps, beginning with
the reform of the electoral law and related legislation. To promote
compliance and enhance enforcement, electoral laws should be
simplified and consolidated into one statutory instrument. The
report recommended that the government and other stakeholders should
consider introducing a majority requirement for presidential
elections when formulating the new electoral law and that the law
should also provide for the establishment of a permanent independent
election tribunal for the resolution of election disputes.


13. (SBU) Neyts emphasized the need to introduce legislation that
would increase the independence of political parties. Legislation
to limit campaign spending and regulate party financing would create
a more level political playing field. The introduction of public
funding for political parties would also advance this goal. She
added that political parties also require internal reform, noting
that a democracy is only as strong as its parties

--Media Access and Coverage


14. (U) With respect to media access and coverage, the EU observers
reported that freedom of expression and the right to publish were
respected during the campaign period and that the media coverage of
the elections was better than in the past. Although candidates

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gained access to the state-owned media as a result of a series of
programs sponsored by the ECZ, the EU nevertheless concluded that
"in both its television and radio services ZNBC (the national
broadcaster) failed to provide balance between candidates in key
areas such as news bulletins, and there was a strong bias in favor
of the MMD." The report concluded the Independent Broadcast
Authority (IBA) Act should be implemented as a step towards
transforming ZNBC into an independent public broadcaster.

--Problems with Vote Count and Results Management


15. (U) The EU report also noted problems that occurred with the
counting, tabulation and reconciliation of votes, which undermined
confidence in the results of the elections. The report attributed
the problems, in part, to inadequate training for election
officials, compounded by poorly designed and unnecessarily
complicated return forms. In addition, the presiding officer
handbook developed by the ECZ was incomplete and difficult to use,
leaving many officials unable to find answers to procedural
questions.


16. (U) Worse than the problems with the count were the
complications with the tabulation and electronic transmission of
results, which the report described as the "weakest step in the
whole election process." Although the system for transmitting the
results electronically was sound, the optical-marked recognition
(OMR) forms were too difficult to use and minor input errors
frequently caused the system to reject forms. In the end, the ECZ
was forced to abandon the electronic system in favor of faxing or
physically delivering results to Lusaka.

--Report's Long-term Impact


17. (SBU) Beyond its observations and recommendations, the EU
Observer Mission report is important because it provides a baseline
against which to judge the success of preparations for future
presidential and parliamentary elections. When compared to the EU
Observer Mission report on Zambia's 2001 elections, which concluded
that the "Electoral Commission of Zambia has failed to fulfill its
mandate on behalf of the electors of Zambia," the 2006 report
reveals substantial progress. The government clearly took the
earlier report's criticism of the ECZ's performance seriously in
preparing for the 2006 elections, appointing a strong and competent
leader in Justice Irene Mambilima to lead the Commission. Donor
representatives also referred to the report's recommendations in
their consultations with the GRZ and the ECZ in the run-up to 2006
elections. The 2006 report could have a similar significant impact
on 2011 election preparations.

MARTINEZ