2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS: COMPARISON TO 2001

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001366 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ZA SUBJECT: 2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS: COMPARISON TO 2001 RACES REF: A) LUSAKA 1357; B) LUSAKA 1303; C) LUSAKA 862; D) 05 LUSAKA 643 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) announced on October 4 the final results to the 2006 parliamentary elections. The ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) has won a small majority of seats. A comparison to the 2001 parliamentary elections reveals large increases in voter turnout in rural areas, which favored the MMD party. In comparison to the 2001 parliamentary elections, the Patriotic Front (PF) is the biggest winner, going from 1 seat in 2001 to 42 seats in 2006. What MMD lost to PF, it gained from parties that belong to the United Democratic Alliance (UDA),which lost dozens of seats to MMD candidates. End summary. -------------- 2006 Parliamentary Results Update -------------- ¶2. (U) On October 4, the Electoral Commission of Zambia announced the final results for the 2006 parliamentary election and named winning candidates for 147 constituencies. Three seats will remain unfilled due to deaths of candidates and will be contested in by-elections at a later date. The breakdown for the parliamentary seats is as follows: Province MMD PF UDA Other -------------- --- -- --- -------------- Central 12 - 2 - Copperbelt 4 18 - - Eastern 15 - 4 - Luapula 4 9 - 1 Lusaka 5 7 - - Northern 10 9 - 1 North-Western 9 - 2 - Southern - - 17 2 Western 13 - 1 2 --- -- --- -------------- TOTAL 72 43 26 6 ¶3. (U) According to the Constitution, the President may nominate eight Members of Parliament, which will give the MMD a clear majority of 80 out of 155 seats. It is also more than likely that MMD will emerge victorious from at least two of the three upcoming by-elections, bringing its majority to 82 out of 158 seats. -------------- Comparison to 2001 Results -------------- ¶4. (U) In comparison to 2001 results, PF is the biggest winner, going from one seat in 2001 to 42 seats in 2006. Although PF's victory comes at MMD's expense (PF won 34 seats that were previously held by MDD MPs),MMD was able to win 35 seats from former UDA MPs. MMD's total, therefore, remains mostly unchanged (69 seats in 2001 compared to 72 seats in 2006). UDA won 26 seats, whereas its member parties, the United Party for National Development (UPND),the United National Independence Party (UNIP) and the Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD),won a total of 74 seats in 2001 (UPND 49, UNIP 13, FDD 12). Heritage Party (HP),which won 4 seats in 2001, failed to win a single seat in 2006. The future for HP, which also reportedly failed in local government elections, is bleak. ¶5. (U) 2006 results show a shift in MMD's support base. MMD's strongest support in 2001 came from the Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern provinces. This year, PF won MMD's support base in most of the Copperbelt and in many parts of Luapula and Northern provinces. In 2006, no one speaks of Luapula and Northern Provinces as MMD strongholds. Instead, they refer to Eastern, Western, North-Western and Central Provinces, which were unambiguous victories for the MMD, though in 2001 these provinces supported UDA alliance members UNIP, FDD and UPND. A province-by-province review follows: Central Province (14 seats) -------------- In 2001, UPND and HP won 5 and 2 seats respectively; in 2006 UDP won 2 and HP did not win any. MMD went from 7 seats in 2001 to 12 seats in 2006. Copperbelt (22 seats) -------------- What MMD gained in other provinces, it lost in the Copperbelt. In 2001 it won 20 seats, with the other 2 going to UNIP and HP. In 2006 it won only 3 seats, to PF's 18. UDA and HP did not win any seats in 2006. Eastern (19 seats) -------------- LUSAKA 00001366 002 OF 003 What the MMD lost to PF, it gained from UDA. Eastern Province was a huge victory for MMD, which won only 1 seat in 2001, compared to UNIP's 12 seats, FDD's 5 seats and HP's 1 seat. In 2006, MMD took 15 seats, to UDA's 4. Luapula (14 seats) -------------- MMD lost 9 seats in Luapula Province (from 13 seats in 2001 to 4 seats in 2006). This may be due to PF's heavy campaign concentration here and in the Northern Province (Ref B). Lusaka (12 seats) -------------- Actually a victory for MMD, considering its 2001 performance, when the party won only 1 seat, to FDD's 6, UPND's 4 and ZRP's 1. PF's gains (7 seats) in Lusaka came at UDA's (FDD's and UPND's) expense. Northern (21 seats, 1 unfilled) -------------- MMD lost ground to PF in Northern Province, having won only 10 of the 20 constituencies (one constituency awaits by-elections). In 2001, MMD won 20 out of 21 possible seats. PF went from one seat in 2001 to 9 seats in 2006. North-Western (12 seats, 1 unfilled) -------------- North-Western Province was another big loss for UPND, which went from 9 seats in 2001 to 2 (UDA) seats in 2006. UPND's seats were captured by MMD, which went from 3 seats in 2001 to 9 seats in 2006. Southern (19 seats) -------------- Southern Province remained mostly unchanged. UPND's 18 seats in 2001 were mostly replaced by 17 UDA seats in 2006. The MMD lost the only seat it won in 2001. The remaining two seats in 2006 were picked up by ULP (Sakwiba Sikota) and an independent candidate. Western (17 seats, 1 unfilled) -------------- A devastating loss for UDA (UPND),which won a majority (13) of the seats in 2001, compared to 3 MMD seats and 1 FDD seat. This year, UDA only achieved one victory, compared to 13 MMD wins. The remaining three seats went to UDA, ULP and an independent candidate. ¶6. (SBU) While UDA's candidate, Hakainde Hichilema, won more votes than many had anticipated in the presidential race, UDA's performance in the parliamentary elections, particularly in comparison to its prior performance in 2001, is a momentous loss. This is due in part to the leadership vacuum resulting from UPND president Anderson Mazoka's untimely death earlier this year and the divisive race for his successor that resulted in challenger Sakwiba Sikota's leaving the UPND and taking a number of party leaders with him to form the United Liberal Party (which allied itself to the PF). The UDA coalition's delay in choosing a replacement and in launching its campaign efforts made the situation worse. While many PF presidential votes may have come at UDA's expense, the same cannot be said for the parliamentary elections, where MMD votes came at UDA's expense. -------------- Voter Turnout Surges, and Makes a Difference -------------- ¶7. (U) Voter registration may be one of the more remarkable differences between the 2001 and 2006 elections. In 2006, 3,941,229 Zambians registered to vote, compared to 2,604,761 in 2001, marking a 51 percent increase. Voter turnout also improved, from 67.2 percent in 2001 to 70.8 percent in 2006. The percentage of rejected votes decreased from 1.91 percent in 2001 to 1.75 percent in 2006. Change 2001 2006 (percent) -------------- --- -------------- Registered 3,941,229 2,604,761 51.3 Votes Cast 1,785,485 2,789,114 56.2 Voter Turnout 67.2 70.8 5.3 (percent) Valid Votes 1,751,352 2,740,178 56.5 Rejected Votes 1.91 1.75 -8.2 (percent) ¶8. (U) The figures reflect the active campaigning by NGOs on voter education and democracy participation. A representative from the LUSAKA 00001366 003 OF 003 Foundation for Democratic Process (FODEP),a Zambian civil society organization, told Poloff on Election Day that Zambians were showing up in greater numbers because FODEP and other NGOs had helped them realize that "they can make a difference and hold their leaders accountable through voting." In addition to conducting voter education, FODEP and the Anti-Voter Apathy Project (AVAP) actively participated in election monitoring across the country. ¶9. (U) The geographic distribution of the increase in voter registration and voting is worth examining: Increase in Increase in Registered Number of Voters Votes Cast (percent) (percent) -------------- -------------- Central 85 96 Copperbelt 38 32 Eastern 48 54 Luapula 55 42 Lusaka 48 56 Northern 57 70 North-Western 49 51 Southern 48 55 Western 53 61 While the increase in registered voters appears to be evenly distributed across Zambia (averaging about 50 percent),Central Province stands out at 85 percent. Perhaps more relevant, however, is the actual number of votes cast, which are less proportionally spread. Central Province (an MMD powerbase) almost doubled the number of votes cast, with a 96 percent increase. Northern Province also showed an increase of 70 percent, and the constituencies that showed the greatest increases in the number of votes cast, Lunte (101 percent),Senga Hill (131 percent) and Kanchibiya (91 percent) all elected MMD candidates. Copperbelt and Luapula Provinces, which overwhelmingly supported PF parliamentary candidates, showed the smallest comparative increase in voters. ¶10. (SBU) Comment. An increase in voter turnout (particularly in the rural areas) may have played an important role in the elections, particularly the presidential elections. In a tight race, the relatively larger increase in voter turnout in MMD (rural) bases made a significant--perhaps even decisive--difference, considering that Mwanawasa won by 373,000 votes, but over one million additional votes were cast in 2006. Additionally, building capacity of democratic processes within Zambia (in this case voter education and awareness),certainly paid off for Mwanawasa and the MMD. Their 2006 victory will hopefully encourage them to continue civic engagement and democratic institution building, particularly in rural areas where much of their support base now rests. MARTINEZ