Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LUSAKA1366
2006-10-05 05:16:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Lusaka
Cable title:
2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS: COMPARISON TO 2001
how-toVZCZCXRO0259 OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN DE RUEHLS #1366/01 2780516 ZNR UUUUU ZZH O 050516Z OCT 06 FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3277 INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001366
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: 2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS: COMPARISON TO 2001
RACES
REF: A) LUSAKA 1357; B) LUSAKA 1303; C) LUSAKA 862; D) 05 LUSAKA
643
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001366
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: 2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS: COMPARISON TO 2001
RACES
REF: A) LUSAKA 1357; B) LUSAKA 1303; C) LUSAKA 862; D) 05 LUSAKA
643
1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ)
announced on October 4 the final results to the 2006 parliamentary
elections. The ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) has
won a small majority of seats. A comparison to the 2001
parliamentary elections reveals large increases in voter turnout in
rural areas, which favored the MMD party. In comparison to the 2001
parliamentary elections, the Patriotic Front (PF) is the biggest
winner, going from 1 seat in 2001 to 42 seats in 2006. What MMD
lost to PF, it gained from parties that belong to the United
Democratic Alliance (UDA),which lost dozens of seats to MMD
candidates. End summary.
--------------
2006 Parliamentary Results Update
--------------
2. (U) On October 4, the Electoral Commission of Zambia announced
the final results for the 2006 parliamentary election and named
winning candidates for 147 constituencies. Three seats will remain
unfilled due to deaths of candidates and will be contested in
by-elections at a later date. The breakdown for the parliamentary
seats is as follows:
Province MMD PF UDA Other
-------------- --- -- --- --------------
Central 12 - 2 -
Copperbelt 4 18 - -
Eastern 15 - 4 -
Luapula 4 9 - 1
Lusaka 5 7 - -
Northern 10 9 - 1
North-Western 9 - 2 -
Southern - - 17 2
Western 13 - 1 2
--- -- --- --------------
TOTAL 72 43 26 6
3. (U) According to the Constitution, the President may nominate
eight Members of Parliament, which will give the MMD a clear
majority of 80 out of 155 seats. It is also more than likely that
MMD will emerge victorious from at least two of the three upcoming
by-elections, bringing its majority to 82 out of 158 seats.
--------------
Comparison to 2001 Results
--------------
4. (U) In comparison to 2001 results, PF is the biggest winner,
going from one seat in 2001 to 42 seats in 2006. Although PF's
victory comes at MMD's expense (PF won 34 seats that were previously
held by MDD MPs),MMD was able to win 35 seats from former UDA MPs.
MMD's total, therefore, remains mostly unchanged (69 seats in 2001
compared to 72 seats in 2006). UDA won 26 seats, whereas its member
parties, the United Party for National Development (UPND),the
United National Independence Party (UNIP) and the Forum for
Democracy and Development (FDD),won a total of 74 seats in 2001
(UPND 49, UNIP 13, FDD 12). Heritage Party (HP),which won 4 seats
in 2001, failed to win a single seat in 2006. The future for HP,
which also reportedly failed in local government elections, is
bleak.
5. (U) 2006 results show a shift in MMD's support base. MMD's
strongest support in 2001 came from the Copperbelt, Luapula and
Northern provinces. This year, PF won MMD's support base in most of
the Copperbelt and in many parts of Luapula and Northern provinces.
In 2006, no one speaks of Luapula and Northern Provinces as MMD
strongholds. Instead, they refer to Eastern, Western, North-Western
and Central Provinces, which were unambiguous victories for the MMD,
though in 2001 these provinces supported UDA alliance members UNIP,
FDD and UPND. A province-by-province review follows:
Central Province (14 seats)
--------------
In 2001, UPND and HP won 5 and 2 seats respectively; in 2006 UDP won
2 and HP did not win any. MMD went from 7 seats in 2001 to 12 seats
in 2006.
Copperbelt (22 seats)
--------------
What MMD gained in other provinces, it lost in the Copperbelt. In
2001 it won 20 seats, with the other 2 going to UNIP and HP. In
2006 it won only 3 seats, to PF's 18. UDA and HP did not win any
seats in 2006.
Eastern (19 seats)
--------------
LUSAKA 00001366 002 OF 003
What the MMD lost to PF, it gained from UDA. Eastern Province was a
huge victory for MMD, which won only 1 seat in 2001, compared to
UNIP's 12 seats, FDD's 5 seats and HP's 1 seat. In 2006, MMD took
15 seats, to UDA's 4.
Luapula (14 seats)
--------------
MMD lost 9 seats in Luapula Province (from 13 seats in 2001 to 4
seats in 2006). This may be due to PF's heavy campaign
concentration here and in the Northern Province (Ref B).
Lusaka (12 seats)
--------------
Actually a victory for MMD, considering its 2001 performance, when
the party won only 1 seat, to FDD's 6, UPND's 4 and ZRP's 1. PF's
gains (7 seats) in Lusaka came at UDA's (FDD's and UPND's) expense.
Northern (21 seats, 1 unfilled)
--------------
MMD lost ground to PF in Northern Province, having won only 10 of
the 20 constituencies (one constituency awaits by-elections). In
2001, MMD won 20 out of 21 possible seats. PF went from one seat in
2001 to 9 seats in 2006.
North-Western (12 seats, 1 unfilled)
--------------
North-Western Province was another big loss for UPND, which went
from 9 seats in 2001 to 2 (UDA) seats in 2006. UPND's seats were
captured by MMD, which went from 3 seats in 2001 to 9 seats in 2006.
Southern (19 seats)
--------------
Southern Province remained mostly unchanged. UPND's 18 seats in
2001 were mostly replaced by 17 UDA seats in 2006. The MMD lost the
only seat it won in 2001. The remaining two seats in 2006 were
picked up by ULP (Sakwiba Sikota) and an independent candidate.
Western (17 seats, 1 unfilled)
--------------
A devastating loss for UDA (UPND),which won a majority (13) of the
seats in 2001, compared to 3 MMD seats and 1 FDD seat. This year,
UDA only achieved one victory, compared to 13 MMD wins. The
remaining three seats went to UDA, ULP and an independent candidate.
6. (SBU) While UDA's candidate, Hakainde Hichilema, won more votes
than many had anticipated in the presidential race, UDA's
performance in the parliamentary elections, particularly in
comparison to its prior performance in 2001, is a momentous loss.
This is due in part to the leadership vacuum resulting from UPND
president Anderson Mazoka's untimely death earlier this year and the
divisive race for his successor that resulted in challenger Sakwiba
Sikota's leaving the UPND and taking a number of party leaders with
him to form the United Liberal Party (which allied itself to the
PF). The UDA coalition's delay in choosing a replacement and in
launching its campaign efforts made the situation worse. While many
PF presidential votes may have come at UDA's expense, the same
cannot be said for the parliamentary elections, where MMD votes came
at UDA's expense.
--------------
Voter Turnout Surges, and Makes a Difference
--------------
7. (U) Voter registration may be one of the more remarkable
differences between the 2001 and 2006 elections. In 2006, 3,941,229
Zambians registered to vote, compared to 2,604,761 in 2001, marking
a 51 percent increase. Voter turnout also improved, from 67.2
percent in 2001 to 70.8 percent in 2006. The percentage of rejected
votes decreased from 1.91 percent in 2001 to 1.75 percent in 2006.
Change
2001 2006 (percent)
-------------- --- --------------
Registered 3,941,229 2,604,761 51.3
Votes Cast 1,785,485 2,789,114 56.2
Voter Turnout 67.2 70.8 5.3
(percent)
Valid Votes 1,751,352 2,740,178 56.5
Rejected Votes 1.91 1.75 -8.2
(percent)
8. (U) The figures reflect the active campaigning by NGOs on voter
education and democracy participation. A representative from the
LUSAKA 00001366 003 OF 003
Foundation for Democratic Process (FODEP),a Zambian civil society
organization, told Poloff on Election Day that Zambians were showing
up in greater numbers because FODEP and other NGOs had helped them
realize that "they can make a difference and hold their leaders
accountable through voting." In addition to conducting voter
education, FODEP and the Anti-Voter Apathy Project (AVAP) actively
participated in election monitoring across the country.
9. (U) The geographic distribution of the increase in voter
registration and voting is worth examining:
Increase in Increase in
Registered Number of
Voters Votes Cast
(percent) (percent)
-------------- --------------
Central 85 96
Copperbelt 38 32
Eastern 48 54
Luapula 55 42
Lusaka 48 56
Northern 57 70
North-Western 49 51
Southern 48 55
Western 53 61
While the increase in registered voters appears to be evenly
distributed across Zambia (averaging about 50 percent),Central
Province stands out at 85 percent. Perhaps more relevant, however,
is the actual number of votes cast, which are less proportionally
spread. Central Province (an MMD powerbase) almost doubled the
number of votes cast, with a 96 percent increase. Northern Province
also showed an increase of 70 percent, and the constituencies that
showed the greatest increases in the number of votes cast, Lunte
(101 percent),Senga Hill (131 percent) and Kanchibiya (91 percent)
all elected MMD candidates. Copperbelt and Luapula Provinces,
which overwhelmingly supported PF parliamentary candidates, showed
the smallest comparative increase in voters.
10. (SBU) Comment. An increase in voter turnout (particularly in
the rural areas) may have played an important role in the elections,
particularly the presidential elections. In a tight race, the
relatively larger increase in voter turnout in MMD (rural) bases
made a significant--perhaps even decisive--difference, considering
that Mwanawasa won by 373,000 votes, but over one million additional
votes were cast in 2006. Additionally, building capacity of
democratic processes within Zambia (in this case voter education and
awareness),certainly paid off for Mwanawasa and the MMD. Their
2006 victory will hopefully encourage them to continue civic
engagement and democratic institution building, particularly in
rural areas where much of their support base now rests.
MARTINEZ
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: 2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS: COMPARISON TO 2001
RACES
REF: A) LUSAKA 1357; B) LUSAKA 1303; C) LUSAKA 862; D) 05 LUSAKA
643
1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ)
announced on October 4 the final results to the 2006 parliamentary
elections. The ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) has
won a small majority of seats. A comparison to the 2001
parliamentary elections reveals large increases in voter turnout in
rural areas, which favored the MMD party. In comparison to the 2001
parliamentary elections, the Patriotic Front (PF) is the biggest
winner, going from 1 seat in 2001 to 42 seats in 2006. What MMD
lost to PF, it gained from parties that belong to the United
Democratic Alliance (UDA),which lost dozens of seats to MMD
candidates. End summary.
--------------
2006 Parliamentary Results Update
--------------
2. (U) On October 4, the Electoral Commission of Zambia announced
the final results for the 2006 parliamentary election and named
winning candidates for 147 constituencies. Three seats will remain
unfilled due to deaths of candidates and will be contested in
by-elections at a later date. The breakdown for the parliamentary
seats is as follows:
Province MMD PF UDA Other
-------------- --- -- --- --------------
Central 12 - 2 -
Copperbelt 4 18 - -
Eastern 15 - 4 -
Luapula 4 9 - 1
Lusaka 5 7 - -
Northern 10 9 - 1
North-Western 9 - 2 -
Southern - - 17 2
Western 13 - 1 2
--- -- --- --------------
TOTAL 72 43 26 6
3. (U) According to the Constitution, the President may nominate
eight Members of Parliament, which will give the MMD a clear
majority of 80 out of 155 seats. It is also more than likely that
MMD will emerge victorious from at least two of the three upcoming
by-elections, bringing its majority to 82 out of 158 seats.
--------------
Comparison to 2001 Results
--------------
4. (U) In comparison to 2001 results, PF is the biggest winner,
going from one seat in 2001 to 42 seats in 2006. Although PF's
victory comes at MMD's expense (PF won 34 seats that were previously
held by MDD MPs),MMD was able to win 35 seats from former UDA MPs.
MMD's total, therefore, remains mostly unchanged (69 seats in 2001
compared to 72 seats in 2006). UDA won 26 seats, whereas its member
parties, the United Party for National Development (UPND),the
United National Independence Party (UNIP) and the Forum for
Democracy and Development (FDD),won a total of 74 seats in 2001
(UPND 49, UNIP 13, FDD 12). Heritage Party (HP),which won 4 seats
in 2001, failed to win a single seat in 2006. The future for HP,
which also reportedly failed in local government elections, is
bleak.
5. (U) 2006 results show a shift in MMD's support base. MMD's
strongest support in 2001 came from the Copperbelt, Luapula and
Northern provinces. This year, PF won MMD's support base in most of
the Copperbelt and in many parts of Luapula and Northern provinces.
In 2006, no one speaks of Luapula and Northern Provinces as MMD
strongholds. Instead, they refer to Eastern, Western, North-Western
and Central Provinces, which were unambiguous victories for the MMD,
though in 2001 these provinces supported UDA alliance members UNIP,
FDD and UPND. A province-by-province review follows:
Central Province (14 seats)
--------------
In 2001, UPND and HP won 5 and 2 seats respectively; in 2006 UDP won
2 and HP did not win any. MMD went from 7 seats in 2001 to 12 seats
in 2006.
Copperbelt (22 seats)
--------------
What MMD gained in other provinces, it lost in the Copperbelt. In
2001 it won 20 seats, with the other 2 going to UNIP and HP. In
2006 it won only 3 seats, to PF's 18. UDA and HP did not win any
seats in 2006.
Eastern (19 seats)
--------------
LUSAKA 00001366 002 OF 003
What the MMD lost to PF, it gained from UDA. Eastern Province was a
huge victory for MMD, which won only 1 seat in 2001, compared to
UNIP's 12 seats, FDD's 5 seats and HP's 1 seat. In 2006, MMD took
15 seats, to UDA's 4.
Luapula (14 seats)
--------------
MMD lost 9 seats in Luapula Province (from 13 seats in 2001 to 4
seats in 2006). This may be due to PF's heavy campaign
concentration here and in the Northern Province (Ref B).
Lusaka (12 seats)
--------------
Actually a victory for MMD, considering its 2001 performance, when
the party won only 1 seat, to FDD's 6, UPND's 4 and ZRP's 1. PF's
gains (7 seats) in Lusaka came at UDA's (FDD's and UPND's) expense.
Northern (21 seats, 1 unfilled)
--------------
MMD lost ground to PF in Northern Province, having won only 10 of
the 20 constituencies (one constituency awaits by-elections). In
2001, MMD won 20 out of 21 possible seats. PF went from one seat in
2001 to 9 seats in 2006.
North-Western (12 seats, 1 unfilled)
--------------
North-Western Province was another big loss for UPND, which went
from 9 seats in 2001 to 2 (UDA) seats in 2006. UPND's seats were
captured by MMD, which went from 3 seats in 2001 to 9 seats in 2006.
Southern (19 seats)
--------------
Southern Province remained mostly unchanged. UPND's 18 seats in
2001 were mostly replaced by 17 UDA seats in 2006. The MMD lost the
only seat it won in 2001. The remaining two seats in 2006 were
picked up by ULP (Sakwiba Sikota) and an independent candidate.
Western (17 seats, 1 unfilled)
--------------
A devastating loss for UDA (UPND),which won a majority (13) of the
seats in 2001, compared to 3 MMD seats and 1 FDD seat. This year,
UDA only achieved one victory, compared to 13 MMD wins. The
remaining three seats went to UDA, ULP and an independent candidate.
6. (SBU) While UDA's candidate, Hakainde Hichilema, won more votes
than many had anticipated in the presidential race, UDA's
performance in the parliamentary elections, particularly in
comparison to its prior performance in 2001, is a momentous loss.
This is due in part to the leadership vacuum resulting from UPND
president Anderson Mazoka's untimely death earlier this year and the
divisive race for his successor that resulted in challenger Sakwiba
Sikota's leaving the UPND and taking a number of party leaders with
him to form the United Liberal Party (which allied itself to the
PF). The UDA coalition's delay in choosing a replacement and in
launching its campaign efforts made the situation worse. While many
PF presidential votes may have come at UDA's expense, the same
cannot be said for the parliamentary elections, where MMD votes came
at UDA's expense.
--------------
Voter Turnout Surges, and Makes a Difference
--------------
7. (U) Voter registration may be one of the more remarkable
differences between the 2001 and 2006 elections. In 2006, 3,941,229
Zambians registered to vote, compared to 2,604,761 in 2001, marking
a 51 percent increase. Voter turnout also improved, from 67.2
percent in 2001 to 70.8 percent in 2006. The percentage of rejected
votes decreased from 1.91 percent in 2001 to 1.75 percent in 2006.
Change
2001 2006 (percent)
-------------- --- --------------
Registered 3,941,229 2,604,761 51.3
Votes Cast 1,785,485 2,789,114 56.2
Voter Turnout 67.2 70.8 5.3
(percent)
Valid Votes 1,751,352 2,740,178 56.5
Rejected Votes 1.91 1.75 -8.2
(percent)
8. (U) The figures reflect the active campaigning by NGOs on voter
education and democracy participation. A representative from the
LUSAKA 00001366 003 OF 003
Foundation for Democratic Process (FODEP),a Zambian civil society
organization, told Poloff on Election Day that Zambians were showing
up in greater numbers because FODEP and other NGOs had helped them
realize that "they can make a difference and hold their leaders
accountable through voting." In addition to conducting voter
education, FODEP and the Anti-Voter Apathy Project (AVAP) actively
participated in election monitoring across the country.
9. (U) The geographic distribution of the increase in voter
registration and voting is worth examining:
Increase in Increase in
Registered Number of
Voters Votes Cast
(percent) (percent)
-------------- --------------
Central 85 96
Copperbelt 38 32
Eastern 48 54
Luapula 55 42
Lusaka 48 56
Northern 57 70
North-Western 49 51
Southern 48 55
Western 53 61
While the increase in registered voters appears to be evenly
distributed across Zambia (averaging about 50 percent),Central
Province stands out at 85 percent. Perhaps more relevant, however,
is the actual number of votes cast, which are less proportionally
spread. Central Province (an MMD powerbase) almost doubled the
number of votes cast, with a 96 percent increase. Northern Province
also showed an increase of 70 percent, and the constituencies that
showed the greatest increases in the number of votes cast, Lunte
(101 percent),Senga Hill (131 percent) and Kanchibiya (91 percent)
all elected MMD candidates. Copperbelt and Luapula Provinces,
which overwhelmingly supported PF parliamentary candidates, showed
the smallest comparative increase in voters.
10. (SBU) Comment. An increase in voter turnout (particularly in
the rural areas) may have played an important role in the elections,
particularly the presidential elections. In a tight race, the
relatively larger increase in voter turnout in MMD (rural) bases
made a significant--perhaps even decisive--difference, considering
that Mwanawasa won by 373,000 votes, but over one million additional
votes were cast in 2006. Additionally, building capacity of
democratic processes within Zambia (in this case voter education and
awareness),certainly paid off for Mwanawasa and the MMD. Their
2006 victory will hopefully encourage them to continue civic
engagement and democratic institution building, particularly in
rural areas where much of their support base now rests.
MARTINEZ