FIRST GLANCE AT 2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 001357 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ZA SUBJECT: FIRST GLANCE AT 2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS REF: A) LUSAKA 1303; B) LUSAKA 862; C) 05 LUSAKA 643 ¶1. (U) Summary. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) and local media have announced the results of 107 of the 150 parliamentary races that were held on September 28, in conjunction with presidential and local government elections. As expected, the results show strong rural support for the ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD),in contrast to solid Patriotic Front (PF) support in urban areas. The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) won most seats in Southern Province, as well as several seats in Eastern and Western Provinces. With over two-thirds of the outcomes announced, it is now possible to look ahead at contenders for cabinet and senior government positions. End summary. -------------- GENERAL TRENDS -------------- ¶2. (U) As of October 2, 2006, the ECZ has announced results to 95 of the 150 parliamentary races that were held in conjunction with presidential and local government elections on September 28. Local media have reported results to another 12 races, bringing the total to 107. Results from 41 constituencies are outstanding, and another two seats will be decided in by-elections to be held at a later date, due to deaths of candidates in September. While the presidential elections are expected to be concluded at 18:00 local time on September 28, it is likely that the parliamentary elections will continue through October 3. ¶3. (U) As expected (Ref A),rural voters remained loyal to the MMD, while urban voters rallied to support PF candidates. The UDA drew its support mostly from the Southern Province. The breakdown is as follows: Province MMD PF UDA Other Pending -------------- --- -- --- -------------- -------------- Central 10 - - - 4 Copperbelt 3 15 - - 4 Eastern 10 - 3 - 6 Luapula 5 2 - 1 6 Lusaka 5 5 - - 2 Northern 8 4 - - 9 North-Western 7 - 1 - 4 Southern - - 16 2 1 Western 8 - 1 1 7 --- -- --- -------------- -------------- TOTAL 56 26 21 4 43 ¶4. (U) The results clearly contradict pronouncements in the media that the PF had gained ground in the Central Province. They do show strong PF support in the urban constituencies of Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces. MMD held its ground in the rural Copperbelt provinces, perhaps owing in part to President Mwanawasa's heritage (his mother is from the matrilineal Lamba tribe, from the southern Copperbelt region) as well the region's long-standing ties to the MMD party. ¶5. (SBU) Of the 107 winning candidates, only 31 are returning parliamentarians (29 were elected in the 2001 National Assembly elections and 2 were nominated to parliament by Mwanawasa). Of these, 4 switched parties in the run-up to the elections: former MMD MP Willie Nsanda and former UPND MP Henry Mtonga defected to the PF, former Zambian Republican party (ZRP) MP Sylvia Masebo switched to MMD, and former UPND MP Sakwiba Sikota represented the United Liberal Party (ULP). The failure of more MP's to be re-elected reflects a general discontent with the current administration and re-enforces the "call for change" that ignited presidential candidate Michael Sata's campaign in order to accelerate the rate of development and poverty alleviation through more jobs, housing and worker entitlements. -------------- LOOKING AHEAD -------------- ¶6. (U) With over two-thirds of the parliamentary candidate races already resolved, it is now possible to begin looking ahead to who might sit in the new cabinet, as well as who might not. ¶7. (U) The following influential ruling MMD party candidates were not elected: --Former Vice President Lupando Mwape was not re-elected. After results were announced in the Lukashya constituency, where he ran, PF cadres were reported to have chanted "Katoloshi, itoloshi yalepuka a shala fye na bombasa" (meaning, the trousers have been torn and he has only remained with underwear). According to the Constitution, having lost a parliamentary race he may not be re-appointed to serve as Vice-President or to hold any cabinet position. Some speculate that he will be given some form of LUSAKA 00001357 002 OF 002 responsibility, such as an Ambassadorial position, given his campaign support to the president. --Austin Chewe, the MMD candidate in the urban Munali constituency in Lusaka (vacated by Forum for Democracy and Development President Edith Nawakwi),a successful businessman who unsuccessfully contested the MMD vice presidency in 2005 (Ref C),lost to PF candidate Josephine Chilufya Mumbi, a university lecturer and local businesswoman, who benefited from Sata's strong popularity in urban Lusaka. --Eugene Appel, MMD, a former Deputy Minister of Trade, Commerce and Industry --Patricia Nawa, who ran on an independent ticket, was a former Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) MP and Deputy Minister of Defense ¶8. (U) The following senior MMD MPs who served as Ministers in the first Mwanawasa presidency were reelected: --Lt. Gen. Ronnie Shikapwasha, former Foreign Minister as well as Home Affairs --Gladys Nyirongo, a former Minister of Lands as well as Sport, Youth and Child Development --George Mpombo, a former Minister of Energy and Copperbelt Province --Kennedy Sakeni, former Minister of Luapala Province --Sylvia Masebo, former Health Minister --Clever Silavwe, former Minister of Northern Province --Gaston Sichilima, a former Deputy Minister of Information and Broadcasting --Kapembwa Simbao, a former Deputy Minister of Health --Felix Mutati, former Energy Minister --Brian Chituwo, former Minister of Education, and of Health --Ng'andu Peter Mangande, former Minister of Finance and National Planning --Benny Tetamashimba, former Deputy Minister of Information and Broadcasting --Kabinga Pande, former Tourism Minister ¶9. (SBU) Although former Minister of Trade, Commerce and Industry Dipak Patel did not seek re-election, he was actively involved in MMD campaigning, and is rumored to be a front-runner for a cabinet-level position. Many expect Mwanawasa to nominate him to Parliament. Patel has told many that his "dream job is to be Minister of Finance." Patel's vacant seat in the densely-populated Lusaka Central constituency had the largest number of candidates of any constituency in the country: 12. The victor was Guy Scott, Secretary General of PF party, who defeated UDA's Nigenda Sipalo, a SIPDIS respected lawyer and human rights activist, MMD's Rose Zimba and 9 other contenders. -------------- QUESTIONABLE CHOICES -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The MMD slate was notable for three of its candidates who are under investigation for corruption (Ref B): Michael Mabenga, MMD National Chairman and former Defense Minister; Katele Kalumba, MMD National Secretary and former Treasury Minister; and David Diangamo, former Deputy Secretary to the Cabinet responsible for Finance and Economic Development. Both Mabenga and Kalumba were re-elected, in spite of their tarnished reputations. ¶11. (SBU) COMMENT: Although many of the same faces in the first Mwanawasa presidency may reappear in the new Cabinet, we expect to see some shuffling of portfolios as well as several new faces. MARTINEZ