MWANAWASA LEADS IN PRESIDENTIAL RACE, BUT SLOW AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 001350 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDING CAPTION) SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC ZA SUBJECT: MWANAWASA LEADS IN PRESIDENTIAL RACE, BUT SLOW AND UNEVEN RELEASE OF RESULTS LESSENS VOTER CONFIDENCE REF: A. LUSAKA 1349 ¶B. LUSAKA 1340 ¶C. LUSAKA 1303 ¶D. LUSAKA 1302 Classified By: DCM Andrew Passen, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Based on results reported from 80 percent of the constituencies around the country, President Mwanawasa of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) enjoys a healthy lead over Patriotic Front (PF) and United Democratic Alliance (UDA) opponents. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) garnered praise from international observers (Ref A) and local civil society organizations for its handling of the election, but its management of the election results reporting process has been less efficient and less transparent, enabling opposition parties to raise doubts and reduce voter confidence in the vote counting and tabulation process. These doubts fueled sometimes-violent protests by angry political party supporters, who alleged foul play by the ECZ. The Embassy does not believe that the ECZ has engaged in any improper activity, but the Commission's failure to act quickly to address noted discrepancies and its uneven announcement of election results fuels the (mis)perception of wrongdoing and provides an opportunity that opposition leaders like Michael Sata are happy to exploit. End summary. INITIAL RESULTS -- OPPOSITION AHEAD ¶2. (SBU) Following national elections on September 28, the ECZ began to release official election results at a 20:00 briefing on Friday September 29 for media, political party representatives, domestic monitors and international observers. This and all subsequent ECZ briefings were broadcast live on local electronic media. However, the Elections Results Center at Mulungushi Conference Center had no signboards listing results, nor did it make available written copies of results from constituencies. The ECZ held a second briefing at 23:00 on September 29, and by this time had reported presidential race results from 26 of Zambia's 150 constituencies. The early results, predominantly from densely-populated urban Lusaka and Copperbelt Provinces, gave a strong lead to Patriotic Front (PF) candidate Michael Sata (who received close to 50 percent of reported votes in these constituencies, against 28 percent for President Mwanawasa of the MMD and 20 percent for the UDA's Hakainde Hichilema), raising the hopes of Sata's supporters. These results were in line with Sata's strong base of support in urban Lusaka and the main cities and towns in the Copperbelt. INDEPENDENT PAPER - "RULING PARTY POISED TO WIN" ¶3. (SBU) The September 30 edition of the independent daily The Post newspaper (Ref D) ran the banner headline "Levy Headed for Victory," and based its report on "MMD sources" who said that the party would win seats in at least 75 National Assembly constituencies around the country. The article also quoted Sata as saying he would not accept any results short of a PF victory and, "Tell Levy that if they play some monkey tricks, the consequences will be too ghastly for them to contemplate." In the afternoon, angry PF supporters marched on the newspaper's downtown office to protest the story, but a strong police presence helped keep the crowds peaceful and in check. The Post's front page also carried an article reporting that Sata asked the country's highest ranking civil servant, Secretary to the Cabinet Joshua Kanganja, to change the inauguration venue to a local stadium to enable more guests to be invited, and demanded that former president of Malawi Bakili Muluzi, the President of Taiwan, and Taiwan's Ambassador to Malawi be invited to the ceremony. Sata also allegedly requested that Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe be invited to be the guest speaker. RESULTS REPORTING SLOWS, QUESTION RAISED ABOUT COUNTS ¶4. (SBU) At the 10:00 ECZ results briefing on Saturday, September 30, the ECZ reported results from only 6 more constituencies, including 4 from the Southern Province where Sata is very weak. Sata's strong lead in the presidential race slipped slightly. At this session, the ECZ began to provide ONE representative of each political party copies of the presidential race results by constituency. Others from the media, civil society and international observer groups did not receive the written results, nor was any information posted for viewing at the Results Center. Judge Mambilima announced that, due to concerns expressed by "stakeholders," the ECZ was basing its results reports on manually-transmitted counts rather than using the electronic results reporting system. As a result, the reporting process would be much slower. A representative from the MMD noted during a subsequent question and answer session that the PF representative at the stakeholders meeting was the only ONE who insisted on relying on the manual system, and other UNEVEN RELEASE OF RESULTS LESSENS VOTER CONFIDENCE political party representatives agreed to the demand. ¶5. (SBU) Mumba Kapumba, a self-proclaimed "independent monitor" and local lawyer who represents at least ONE PF-affiliated politician (former ZANACO Managing Director Samuel Musonda) in a pending corruption case, raised a question about a significant discrepancy (of 20,000 votes) between the total number of votes cast for the President and for the National Assembly candidate in Munali, a heavily populated constituency in urban Lusaka. Judge Mambilima appeared surprised to hear of such a large discrepancy, and told Kapumba that the only information she had was the final tallies provided by the local election officials who prepared the tally. She said that the ECZ would follow up with those officials to clarify the reported problem. OPPOSITION LEAD SLIPS, AND SUPPORTERS CRY FOUL ¶6. (SBU) At the 16:00 briefing on September 30, Judge Mambilima announced results from 16 additional constituencies, including in Eastern and Southern provinces, and Sata's lead was cut again. During the question and answer session after the briefing, Judge Mambilima did not yet have an answer to the Munali discrepancy query. Agitated Patriotic Front representatives cried foul play and accused an Electoral Commissioner, Noah Kalala, of being biased in favor of the ruling MMD party because he was related to "someone at State House." Kalala denied this and the question and answer session began to spin out of control. Shouting PF representatives were escorted out of the briefing room by security guards and ECZ officials quickly called an end to the briefing. Following this outburst, the ECZ set up "Query Liaison Desks" at the Results Center to receive and respond to questions and complaints, and Q&A sessions were discontinued at subsequent ECZ briefings. Later on September 30, Sata met with media representatives and alleged that the discrepancies between presidential and parliamentary counts at the constituency level were occurring on a wide scale, and that 400,000 votes for him had "been suppressed" or in some cases "swapped." Based on this, he said he will demand a nationwide verification of votes before final election results are officially announced. MWANAWASA TAKES LEAD, PF SUPPORTERS PROTEST ¶7. (U) The final results announcements on September 30 came at 22:00. Judge Mambilima provided presidential vote tallies from 21 more constituencies. Many of the constituencies were from Central Province, considered an MMD stronghold, and the cumulative tallies propelled Mwanawasa ahead of Sata and Hichilema. ¶8. (SBU) The first ECZ briefing at 10:00 on Sunday October 1 provided results from 25 more constituencies, primarily in areas where the PF is not strong, and the UDA's Hichilema moved into second place ahead of Sata, while Mwanawasa's lead grew larger. However, the ECZ did not release official results of any National Assembly races and did not yet have a clarification of the Munali constituency results, further fueling PF supporters' suspicions of foul play. PF political activists had gathered in large numbers in the area of Mulungushi Conference Center, and the police presence was beefed up accordingly. After the morning briefing, the PF protestors clashed with police, who fired tear gas to disperse the crowds. Crowds of PF supporters in Lusaka's downtown area and in high-density low-income residential areas also became violent and unruly. ECZ PROVIDES MORE RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS ¶9. (SBU) During the day on October 1, the ECZ published the presidential race tallies from 95 constituencies on its website. However, at its election results briefings, it continued to provide written results only to political party representatives. At the 16:00 briefing on October 1, Judge Mambilima announced results from an additional 26 constituencies from outlying areas, improving President Mwanawasa's lead. The cumulative results from 120 of 150 constituencies, which represent 3,267,045 registered voters, stood as follows: of 2,300,407 votes cast (70 percent voter turnout),2,261,308 were valid; 39,099 (1.7 percent) were rejected. MMD candidate President Mwanawasa was in the lead with 952,650 votes (42.13 percent),followed by UDA candidate Hichilema with 641,109 votes (28.35 percent) and PF candidate Michael Sata with 615,429 votes (27.22 percent). ¶10. (SBU) Judge Mambilima also referred to the outstanding question on discrepancies in Munali and said that the election officials at the constituency level had been checking through the tabulations and were almost finished. She said the ECZ hoped to provide clarifications soon, and also informed the audience that both the PF and UDA had already sent formal requests for the verification of election results to the ECZ. She stated that the ECZ's policy was UNEVEN RELEASE OF RESULTS LESSENS VOTER CONFIDENCE that if parties came forward with specific questions and allegations, the ECZ would be pleased to follow up by asking officials at the constituency level to recheck the vote tabulation paperwork. Judge Mambilima emphasized that the requests for clarification must be specific. Due to the security problems experienced earlier on October 1, the ECZ decided not to hold another late-night briefing. The next briefing is scheduled for 10:00 on October 2. COMMENT ¶11. (C) The ECZ's preparations for and management of election results reporting was very weak, in contrast to its excellent handling of the voting process on election day. Its failure to publish results online in a timely manner or post them at the Results Center for all accredited representatives to see and access easily did little to inspire confidence. Further, the ECZ's failure to respond quickly to a report of a significant anomaly in the results gave the Patriotic Front an opportunity to cast doubts over the entire tabulation process, and to fuel existing skepticism about possible vote-rigging. The Embassy does not believe that the ECZ has engaged in any wrongdoing and suspects the delays and unevenness in providing information and answers stems from taking time to follow up carefully and comprehensively. The ECZ's relatively poor performance in reporting results has created an impression of possible interference in a well-managed election process, and--because impressions often matter more than facts or reality--caused the ECZ and the election to lose credibility among some Zambian voters. MARTINEZ