ZAMBIAN ELECTIONS--MWANAWASA LEADS, BUT SATA GAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LUSAKA 001264 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV ZA SUBJECT: ZAMBIAN ELECTIONS--MWANAWASA LEADS, BUT SATA GAINS REF: A. LUSAKA 1054 ¶B. LUSAKA 702 ¶C. LUSAKA 693 ¶D. 05 LUSAKA 1098 Classified By: CDA ANDREW PASSEN, SECTION 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: With less than two weeks until September 28 national elections, the second-runner, Michael Sata, appears to be gaining ground on President Levy Mwanawasa, who nonetheless still enjoys a comfortable lead. Results from voter opinion polls vary, and one poll that gives Sata a decisive margin appears to lack credibility. Two other polls, based on surveys conducted in August, show Sata gaining popularity, including in areas outside the poor urban settings where he has always enjoyed strong support. Complicating matters, the Electoral Commission of Zambia on September 13 validated and referred to the Director of Public Prosecutions a complaint against Sata for making false statements when filing his nomination. It is not clear what, if any, follow up action against Sata will be possible before the election, but it is likely that any action the GRZ takes will be perceived as politically motivated, to the possible detriment of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy and the President. End summary. POLLS SHOW MWANAWASA RETAINS LEAD, WITH SATA GAINING ¶2. (SBU) The Steadman Group, which has experience with polling in Kenya, an affiliation with Gallup International, and a credible reputation, announced results of an election poll on September 4, 2006. The poll covered all nine provinces, had a sample size of 2,000 nation-wide respondents, with a 40:60 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error reported was plus/minus 2 percent with a 95 percent confidence level. The poll was carried out between August 11 and 19, 2006, using face-to-face interviews. The Embassy does not know how the Steadman poll was funded. ¶3. (U) Respondents viewed poverty and unemployment as the "most pressing problems facing Zambia today," followed by HIV/AIDS and corruption. Ninety-four percent of registered voters indicated they plan to vote on September 28. Regarding "qualities they considered most important for person vying for the presidency in Zambia" respondents cited leadership ability, education, "what they promise to deliver," track record, and wealth as the most important factors. ¶4. (U) Respondents' preferences for presidential candidates 
were: 33 percent for Levy Mwanawasa (ruling MMD party); 24 percent for Michael Sata (Patriotic Front); 15 percent for Hakainde Hichilema (United Democratic Alliance); 7 percent for other candidates; 6 percent "don't know;" and 14 percent "refused to answer." Based on the reported responses, if Sata received votes from those who refused to answer, he would come out ahead of Mwanawasa in the September 28 polls. ¶5. (SBU) In provincial breakdowns, Mwanawasa had the strongest showing in Northwestern (52 percent),Northern (38 percent),Western (33 percent),and Copperbelt (34 percent, just ahead of Sata's 33 percent) Provinces, while Hichilema was strong in his home-base, Southern Province. Sata enjoyed his strongest support in Luapula (48 percent),Lusaka (33 percent to Mwanawasa's 26 percent) and Northern (29 percent) Provinces, but was extremely weak in Southern, Western and Northwestern Provinces. Some local observers believe that Sata's Patriotic Front party's limited presence in several provinces may be a key factor in keeping Sata from winning the presidential race. ¶6. (U) Unnamed individuals from the University of Zambia (UNZA) reportedly announced on September 8 results of a poll conducted "during August 2006" with 3,800 Zambian adults in all nine provinces, asking simply who they would vote for in the September 28 presidential election. According to media reports, 52 percent of respondents said they would vote for Michael Sata, 27 percent for Levy Mwanawasa, and 20 percent for Hakainde Hichilema. Results by province were not available. No margin of error was reported with the results. Embassy has been unable to track down a copy of the poll or the names of individuals responsible for the poll. As a result, we have serious doubts about the poll's credibility. ¶7. (U) On September 9, political science professor at UNZA, Neo Simutanyi, reported results of a second poll of 3,000 respondents conducted by his firm, Pangolin Consulting, between August 24-28, 2006. The poll was funded by the Zambian Elections Fund, which receives its support from several donor governments, including the UK, the Netherlands and Norway. The second survey expanded coverage from six to all nine provinces, and dropped two questions relating to health. One-third of respondents said the greatest area of LUSAKA 00001264 002 OF 004 concern to them was "agriculture" while 22 percent said education was their greatest concern. The constitution and election-related issues were of concern to less than one percent of respondents. Key questions and responses from the poll are summarized below. A) Are you satisfied with the performance of the government in the last five years? Yes: 58 percent; No: 38 percent; Don't know/no answer: 4 percent. B) If elections were to be held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? MMD: 50 percent; PF: 19 percent; UDA: 16 percent; other/none: 3 percent; undecided: 12 percent. C) If elections were to be held tomorrow, which party leader would you vote for? Mwanawasa: 51 percent; Sata: 19 percent; Hichilema: 16 percent; other/none: 3 percent; undecided: 11 percent. ¶8. (U) The Pangolin poll also provided provincial breakdowns. President Mwanawasa had clear majorities in five provinces: Western (81 percent); Northern (66 percent); Central (64 percent); Northwestern (56 percent); and Eastern (44 percent). The President's support in Lusaka (36 percent), Copperbelt (41 percent) and Luapula (40 percent) Provinces represents a slim lead over the PF's Michael Sata, who garnered 32 percent in Lusaka, 31 percent in Copperbelt, and30 percent in Luapula Provinces. The UDA candidate Hakainde Hichilema had the greatest support in the Southern Province (45 percent, to Mwanawasa's 36 percent) and also had 24 percent in Northwestern Province, 19 percent in Eastern, and 15 percent in Copperbelt. Undecided respondents accounted for 24 percent in Luapula, 20 percent in Eastern, 17 percent in Lusaka and 16 percent in Northwestern. The summary of the poll notes that the overall percentage of undecided voters fell from 23 percent from the first poll, in July 2006, to 12 percent in the s econd poll in August. According to the August poll results, even if Michael Sata gained the support of all remaining undecided voters, he would not catch up to President Mwanawasa. PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK FOR PRESIDENTIAL SUPPORT ¶9. (SBU) The poll results are generally consistent with what we understand to have been the campaign strategies of the three leading parties, based in most cases on existing ties and relationships around the country. President Mwanawasa has focused primarily on appealing to voters in Central Province--where Mwanawasa's father hails from, and where the Provincial Minister, Kennedy Shepande, has done extensive grassroots organizing on the MMD's behalf--and in more remote, rural parts of the country. The Litunga, the Chief of the Lozi people in Western Province, is a Mwanawasa supporter, and members of prominent Lozi families are part of the ruling MMD government, including Ambassador to Washington, Inonge Mbikusita-Lewanika. Opposition parties have not gained much popularity in the Western Province. The expansion of mining activity and related road-building projects in North Western Province have resulted in an economic boom that is credited to Mwanwasa's regime and has earned him popularity. Due to conne ctions through his mother and his wife, Mwanawasa enjoys some support in the Copperbelt as well. Mwanawasa has long conceded that his party's showing in densely populated urban areas will not be as strong as in most rural areas. ¶10. (SBU) The UDA coalition's strongest support base by far is the Southern Province, home of the United Party for National Development (UPND),but Hichilema continues to try to broaden his appeal elsewhere in Zambia. He has been campaigning actively in Lusaka and the Copperbelt and trying to woo traditional leaders in the Northern and Northwestern Provinces. Some political observers note that both Hichilema and his party are still viewed by many as having strong tribal linkages, which turns off some prospective voters. Some pockets of support exist in and around Livingstone for the former contender for the UPND party presidency, Sakwiba Sikota, who now heads the United Liberal Party, which is allied with the Patriotic Front. The United National Independence Party and Forum for Democracy and Development, member parties of the UDA coalition, may help deliver more of the undecided voters in Eastern Province to Hichilema, but the MMD also enjoys support in Eastern Province, thanks to some prominent defections such as that of the popular Rosemary Banda, from Milanzi. ¶11. (SBU) PF leader Michael Sata's targeted audience has consistently been unemployed or underemployed urban dwellers in Lusaka and the Copperbelt. Sata enjoys significant support in the urban sectors of Lusaka Province, and LUSAKA 00001264 003 OF 004 anecdotal evidence reported by Embassy's local staff underscores this popularity: reportedly, local minibus conductors are asking prospective passengers if they are for "the boat" (the symbol of Sata's Patriotic Front) or "the clock" (the ruling MMD party's symbol)--and only allow PF supporters on board. One reported remark by a potential Sata voter was: In the last election we voted for the candidate with the "right" credentials (Mwanawasa is a lawyer) but what did that get us? Now we think it may be time for a change, even to someone not so "right." ¶12. (SBU) In recent weeks, Sata has expanded his campaigning to Luapula--where he already enjoys support, thanks to his close ties with former President Chiluba, who comes from Luapula, and the support of other senior politicians who defected from the MMD to the PF earlier in the year (Ref A)--and to Northern Province, where he poses a more direct threat to a support base of the MMD. Sata comes from Northern Province, but so does MMD Vice President Lupando Mwape. The province's vote may be split between PF and MMD as a result. ¶13. (C) The British High Commissioner told us that he recently encountered Sata during a trip to Luapula Province. He noted that Sata is maintaining a grueling pace, appearing at two big rallies every day -- something that Mwanawasa, still recovering from the effects of an April stroke, cannot manage. While campaigning in Luapula, Sata promised to drop corruption charges against native son Chiluba. In Northern Province, Sata has promised to allow former Director of Intelligence Xavier Chungu to return to Zambia without fear of facing corruption charges. It is widely rumored that Chungu, who hails from Northern Province, provides financial support to Sata's campaign. A NEW TWIST-POTENTIAL CASE AGAINST SATA ¶14. (SBU) Former Minister of Youth, Sports and Child Development (and MMD national election vice chairman),George Chulumanda brought a complaint against Michael Sata regarding claims Sata made in his required financial disclosure statements when he formally filed as a presidential candidate in mid-August. Sata claimed assets that included Kwachas 350 million (about $80,000) owed to him by Chulumanda as a result of a judgment in a defamation case in 2004. ECZ Chairperson Justice Irene Mambilima told donor representatives on September 14 that the ECZ carefully checked court records and determined that the judgment in the defamation case had been set aside in March 2005, and no money was owed to Sata by Chulumanda. The case is continuing and is scheduled to go to trial in 2007. Mambilima commented that if Sata were to be elected President, and then the case against him proceeded and he was found guilty, the election results should then be nullified. ¶15. (U) As a result of the documented false declaration by Sata, the ECZ, which lacks authority to take action on the complaint under the current Electoral Law, referred the case to the Director of Public Prosecutions for further action. The DPP has made no comment, nor has the ruling MMD government, about the referral. PF Secretary General Guy Scott told the press on September 14 that Michael Sata would remain the party's presidential candidate and "nobody had the power to remove him from the ballot." Lawyers representing the PF reportedly accused the ECZ of exceeding its powers and threatened possible legal action against the ECZ. ¶16. (C) Former Chairperson of the Electoral Reform Technical Committee and respected attorney, Mwangala Zaloumis, commented to P/E Officers on September 14 that the ERTC had recommended that the ECZ be given authority to disqualify candidates who make false declarations, but this recommendation was not included in the new Electoral Act passed into law earlier in 2006 (Ref B). She also noted that if Sata were to win the Presidency, he could not be charged until after he stepped down from office, as the President enjoys immunity from prosecution. (Note: The Zambian constitution provides immunity for acts undertaken by a President while in office. End note.) Zaloumis and several thoughtful colleagues from the Energy Regulation Board expressed concerns to P/E Officers over Sata's winning the election and said they believed Sata would take measures that strengthen the power of the executive, and would not be above imposing martial law to ensure he had "absolute" power. Other contacts consider Sata to be Zambia's equivalent to Robert Mugabe, while some think his campaign comments are just talk, and that he would not be particularly different from Mwanawasa as a leader-though perhaps somewhat more overtly corrupt. ¶17. (C) COMMENT: Although the DPP is theoretically independent, in the past he has allowed himself to be heavily influenced by State House. Guy Scott's reported comments LUSAKA 00001264 004 OF 004 appear intended to provoke the MMD to make an effort to disqualify Sata from running. Any action by the DPP on the Sata case before the election will be perceived to be the result of State House pressure and will be viewed as a purely political move, which may cost the MMD support at the polls. For quite some time, the Embassy has considered the Presidential race to be the MMD's to lose-though Mwanawasa's April stroke (Ref C) raised serious questions about his health and ability to carry on as a candidate. The President's doctors in the UK and Zambia allowed him to continue his campaign, and he has maintained a steady pace of public campaign appearances. Mwanawasa has never been a captivating speaker and he has also shown himself to be very thin-skinned when it comes to dealing with critics, Sata included (Ref D). With ten days remaining before the election, it is still possible that the President could say or do something ill-advised that costs him voter support, and possibly--though a long shot--the election. PASSEN