U.S. JOURNALIST: TEHRAN MAN IN THE STREET LOVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 008372

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KISL KPRP PHUM IR UK
SUBJECT: U.S. JOURNALIST: TEHRAN MAN IN THE STREET LOVES
AMERICA BUT ALSO LIKES AHMADINEJAD'S DEFIANCE


Classified By: Political Minister Maura Connelly for reasons 1.4 (B) an
d (D)


1. Summary: (C) An American journalist just back from her
third working visit to Iran reports a paradox in popular
feeling in Tehran: the man in the street has a positive view
of America and hates the current high level of political
oppression, but at the same time takes great patriotic pride
in Ahmadinejad's apparently successful defiance of the West.
The journalist believes this feeling of patriotic pride in
Ahmadinejad's boldness, if not his economic record, is
shared by those (numerous) Iranians who disagree with
Ahmedinejad's anti-western, anti-democratic views, as well as
those (poorly educated) Iranians who embrace his hard-line
rhetoric; their president's successful defiance strikes a
common emotional chord. She found, nevertheless, a pervasive
sense of skepticism among Iranians about regime motives, and
reports that her expert contacts in Iran see, behind the
regime's condemnations of direct talks with the West, a
deep-seated desire to engage. End summary.


2. (C) Fox News journalist and AmCit Amy Kellogg (please
protect),an established Embassy contact, just back from a
two-week working visit to Iran, her third visit to Iran in
the last year, recently shared her impressions with poloff.
(Embassy comment: Kellogg has posted several stories on the
Fox News website, generally critical of human rights and
political repression in Iran, based on this latest, as well
as previous, visits to Iran. End comment).

Ahmadinejad Paradox: Critics See Him as Iran's Champion
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3. (C) Kellogg said that even Iranians who criticize
clerical control and the hard-liners' rhetoric at the same
time express admiration for, and take obvious personal
pleasure in, Ahmadinejad's boldness and his apparent success
as a defender of Iran against international isolation and
powerful foreign governments. She said Ahmadinejad is
generally seen as personally ascetic, and therefore
non-corrupt, even though the same Iranians also complain of
pervasive corruption in the government that Ahmedinejad
leads. This admiring view of Ahmedinejad as an ascetic,
defiant patriot is, according to Kellogg, held by many of the
same men in the street who stress their good will for and
sentimental attachments to America. At the same time,
according to Kellogg, Iranians' admiration for Ahmadinejad's
international assertiveness does not negate their deep
dissatisfaction with Iran's economy.

Times are Tough but Sanctions Will Not Affect the Regime
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4. (C) Most non-official Iranians Kellogg met appear to be
experiencing economic hardship - the need to hold a second or
third job is universal for middle class "Tehranis," while
severe unemployment, capital flight, and the signs of
widespread drug addiction, as well as a general daily
struggle for existence, were evident in more blighted areas
of south Tehran that Kellogg visited. She said people of all
classes have a distinct awareness of the sanctions threat
hanging over Iran. The man in the street tends to believe
multilateral sanctions will be imposed, but do not think
sanctions will affect the regime or its security apparatus,
which is seen as enjoying an insulated, affluent lifestyle.

Soccer Fans: "Nuclear Power -- Up Yours"
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5. (C) Despite these positive views of Ahmedinejad, Kellogg
also found a pervasive distrust of the regime, and cynicism
about its motives, extending to Iran's nuclear program as
well. The most vivid example came during an interview at
Tehran University, in which Kellogg's interlocutor, a
university teacher, showed her streaming live video of a
rowdy crowd at a soccer game. The teacher explained that one
team and many hundreds of its supporters, rather than echoing
the conventional halftime chants from the opposing team and
its fans of "Death to America" and "Nuclear Energy Is Our
Right," was replying with chants of "Death to You" and
"Nuclear Power up Your (Backside)."

Less fear of U.S. attack
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6. (C) Kellogg also said the sense of dread about a U.S.
military attack, which had been a common expectation during
her visit in late spring of 2006, was now gone, much to
everyone's relief. That dread had been replaced by a general
sense of being "beaten down" by the economy and by the
ceaseless drumbeat of Islamic rhetoric, not only on foreign
policy, but, more immediately, against symbols and small
daily pleasures like western music or clothing.

Regime on Talks with West - an opening ploy, not a rejection
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7. (C) Kellogg also reported that the policy experts she
interviewed believe that Ahmadinejad's recent rhetoric
condemning direct talks, though harsh to a western ear, in
fact indicates regime interest in engaging, not lack of
interest. She reports her expert sources in Tehran (Embassy
note: she named only one, Tehran political economist Saeed
Laylez (protect). End note) argue the hysterical tone and
substance of the regime's rhetoric actually indicates regime
interest in, and insecurities about, direct talks, as
distinct from outright hostility.


8. (C) Laylez reportedly argued regime rhetoric reflects
classic Iranian negotiating tactics, used most notably by
Mossadegh during oil nationalization talks in 1952-53, in
which Mossadegh relied not on linear, nominally logical
analysis aimed at eliminating ambiguity, but rather on
emotionally charged posturing, and circular arguments, aimed
at energizing a domestic Iranian audience. (Embassy Comment:
Some of Embassy London's Iranian expat contacts, while
arguing that the regime does want talks, nevertheless posit
an additional tactic in the regime's statements, involving a
near-continual "moving of the goalposts," or re-setting of
conditions, that would make direct talks difficult to convene
on an agreed, unambiguous footing. End comment).

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