UK AGREES ON NEED FOR VIGOROUS CRITIQUE OF IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 008212 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL IR EU UK SUBJECT: UK AGREES ON NEED FOR VIGOROUS CRITIQUE OF IRAN ELECTIONS REF: A. A) STATE 194458 ¶B. B) FCO REPORTS FAXED TO NEA/FO 12-4-06 Classified By: Political Counselor Richard Mills for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office welcomes USG plans to publicly critique the undemocratic, unaccountable nature of Iran's Assembly of Experts election and the UK will be making a similar public statement, perhaps as early as December 5. The FCO noted, however, that due to continuing debates within both the UK Government and the EU, UK public statements before Iran's (December 15) elections may not be as frequent as U.S. statements and the EU is unlikely to issue any statement until after the elections. End Summary. FCO Agrees On Need to Watch the Process -------------- ¶2. (C) Poloff called on FCO Iran Team Leader Ben Fender to deliver ref (a) demarche on December 1. Fender agreed it was crucial to let Iran's regime know the December 15 election, and the vetting/disqualification process preceding it, are being closely watched. Fender also fully agreed the Iranian electoral process as now structured lacks any democratic accountability, and should be publicly criticized on that basis. Fender noted that several pre-election trends justify an aggressive public approach toward Tehran, specifically the tendency of disqualification rates for candidates in municipal elections to be higher in rural areas, where there is little opportunity for outside scrutiny, than in larger urban areas such as Tehran, where foreign monitors are clustered and more likely to object. Fender agreed that no additional amount of last minute transparency could redeem Iran's electoral process as it is now constructed. But Internal Debates Dilute EU approach -------------- ¶3. (C) Fender explained, however, that there is still ongoing debate within HMG and, even more strongly, within the EU on whether to issue public criticism of Iran's elections, or, instead, take a more low-key approach, and thereby avoid turning reform-minded candidates into targets of regime retaliation. Because internal EU/UK debates are unresolved, Fender said there will probably be no EU statement before the elections, although there may be one afterwards. UK officials will likely make public statements consistent with ref a, perhaps as soon as December 5 during a scheduled debate on the Middle East in the House of Lords. FCO Shares Its Election Analysis -------------- ¶4. (C) Fender also commented that the December 15 elections, both national and municipal, are a key test of strength within the Iranian government between "hard-liners," associated with Ahmedinejad and Mesbah-Yazdi, and what FCO analysts view as a loose three-part alliance of "reformists" associated with former President Khatami, "pragmatists-moderates" linked to Expediency Council Chairman Rafsanjani, and "pragmatic conservatives" led by Tehran's mayor, Mohammad-Bager Qalibaf (see ref B). FCO analysts note that in local elections hard-liners are fragmented, with multiple groups publishing separate candidate lists and five rival groups all claiming to represent Ahmadinejad. ¶5. (C) According to Fender, FCO analysts argue that Assembly of Experts Speaker Meshkini, to prevent a divisive melee between Mesbah-Yazdi and Rafsanjani, has chosen to stand for re-election despite his poor health; UK Embassy Tehran predicts Meshkini is likely to be re-elected, while FCO analysts expect, generally, a hard-liner victory in the Assembly of Experts. The FCO also predicts Rafsanjani's relationship with Supreme Leader Khomeini will end unless Rafsanjani is able to hold on both his seat and his deputy-chairmanship of the Assembly. Visit London's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/london/index. cfm Tuttle