(C) OSCE MINISTERIAL: UK EXPECTS RUSSIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 008097 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/RUS, EUR/UBI, EUR/UMB, EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2016 TAGS: PREL MARR RU UK GG MD UP SUBJECT: (C) OSCE MINISTERIAL: UK EXPECTS RUSSIAN RESISTANCE TO U.S. PROPOSALS ON FROZEN CONFLICTS REF: STATE 190264 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. David T. Johnson; reasons 1.4(b) ¶1. (C) Charge met November 24 with Stephen Pattison, International Security Director in the FCO, to discuss prospects for taking a unified approach to the Georgia/Moldova conflicts at the December 4-5 OSCE ministerial meetings in Brussels (reftel). Mr. Pattison did not expect the OSCE to reach agreement on a ministerial text on those issues. He felt that the international community cannot allow the "frozen conflicts" to remain frozen, but he predicted the U.S. proposals would not pass muster with the Russians, particularly with respect to inserting international peacekeepers into places such as Ossetia. Pattison noted also that Germany may be seeking compromise language on CFE that would call for early ratification, but he felt their formula was unacceptable since it would isolate Moldova and Georgia and gut the CFE's host-nation consent requirement. Pattison expressed concern about what Russia might do if Kosovo were to be declared independent -- thus establishing a precedent, in Russia's eyes, for independence movements in places like Ossetia -- and then Georgia were to trigger a crisis by doing something rash. He noted that similar obstacles impeded the quest for a solution in Transnistria, and that the position of Ukraine complicated matters there as well. ¶2. (C) Pattison was supportive of current U.S. ideas on confidence-building measures (CBM's),although he saw the key issue for CBM's as the lack of trust on both sides with respect to each other's alleged military buildup. Pattison suggested a general statement on CBM's and some sort of formula for military transparency, which would offer something of substance to Russia and provide a means for the presence of foreign military observers. ¶3. (C) Pattison noted that Minister for Europe Geoffrey Hoon will attend the OSCE ministerials for only a matter of hours, though he is seeking to have that extended. Hoon must return to London for the Ministerial's final day to represent the Foreign Office in the House of Commons. Visit London's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/london/index. cfm Tuttle