(SBU) BLAIR, BROWN BOTH STRONGER AFTER LABOUR

UNCLAS LONDON 007078 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UBI, INR/EU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR UK SUBJECT: (SBU) BLAIR, BROWN BOTH STRONGER AFTER LABOUR CONFERENCE REF: LONDON 6491 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown both emerged stronger from the Labour Party's annual conference (September 24-28) in Manchester. It was Blair's last as Prime Minister and party leader and his speech was a "magnificent valedictory," as guest-speaker former President Clinton called it. Brown gave a solid - if not particularly inspiring - speech that consolidated his position as front-runner to succeed Blair but did not preclude his facing a serious challenge for the top job. His performance was overshadowed by press reports that the PM's wife Cherie Blair had been overheard saying he lied when he characterized working for Blair as a "privilege." She denied it, and her husband defused that issue with an effective joke. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY CONTINUED: By the end of the conference, Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott had endorsed Brown for leader, as had Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett and the Blairite Environment Secretary David Miliband. Prescott also made clear he will stand down when his boss does. Three candidates have announced their intention to run for Deputy Leader: Northern Ireland and Wales Secretary Peter Hain, Constitutional Affairs Minister Harriet Harman, and Jon Cruddas MP. The only declared challenger to Brown for the top job is John McDonnell MP, a left-winger who may be able to garner the necessary support of at least 44 MPs in order to run, but is seen as having no chance of winning. If a Cabinet heavyweight decides to take on Brown, current thinking is that it will most likely be Home Secretary John Reid or Education Secretary Alan Johnson. Controversial issues not addressed at the conference include replacement of the Trident nuclear deterrent and a specific date for the departure of Blair, who has said he will go by early September 2007 at the latest (reftel). END SUMMARY. (U) Blair Leaves Them Wanting More -------------- ¶3. (U) Prime Minister Tony Blair gave a brilliant performance September 26 in his final speech to the annual Labour Party conference. He thanked the party, recalling its achievements in power since 1997 which, he said, had made "progressive" politics the norm in the UK. He stressed that Labour must focus on the priorities of all the British people, even those who are already prosperous. Above all, he urged the party to show it has the courage to govern and not go back to the "ridiculous dilemma between principle and power" that led it to "revel in its irrelevance" in the 1980's. The only legacy he ever cared about was for Labour to win the next general election. He wanted to be the "first" Labour leader to win three elections in a row, not the only one. While leadership is difficult, he said the British people will sometimes forgive wrong decisions but they will not forgive failing to decide. "They will lose faith in us only if we lose faith in ourselves." Blair urged the party to "get after" the opposition Conservatives, drawing a roar when he said "if we can't take this lot apart" we do not belong in politics. ¶4. (U) The PM sought "to heal" the divisions in the party sparked by last month's attempt to force him to set a date for departure from office, saying New Labour and the three successive terms would not have been possible without Gordon Brown, "a remarkable man and a remarkable servant of this country." But he stopped short of endorsing Brown as his successor. Blair warned that today's challenges of globalization "dwarf" the problems of 1997. The goal must be to reconcile openness and liberty with security. Praising British troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, he said withdrawing them would be a "craven surrender" that would "put our future in deepest peril." Accusations that terrorism is a result of faulty foreign policy are a "wretched capitulation to the enemy." The war on terror cannot be won by force alone, Blair acknowledged, and he pledged to dedicate himself until he leaves office to "advancing peace between Israel and Palestine." He said it can be "hard to be America's strongest ally" and Europe can be a "headache," but big problems cannot be solved without America and Europe. He also said the crisis in Sudan cannot stand. His parting words: "You're the future now, make the most of it." (SBU) Brown Helps Himself -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Gordon Brown helped himself with a solid speech September 25 that ticked a lot of boxes even if it failed to inspire. He praised Tony Blair, expressed regret for the differences they have had, mentioned virtually all his Cabinet colleagues by name, highlighted his record of devolving governmental authority, and said Parliament should have the final say on such issues as war and peace. He denounced anti-Americanism, affirmed the need for global cooperation against terrorism, indicated willingness to consider extending the period of detention without charge for terrorism suspects "if necessary," and stressed individual responsibility and the need to obey the rules. He pledged to raise the minimum wage and enforce it, double investment in public housing and raise spending on students in state schools. He urged creation of a GBS20 billion global fund to help developing countries implement cleaner energy. Knowing that he needed to give the public a clearer sense of who he is, the Chancellor spoke of the profound influence his parents had on him, depicting himself as "quite a private person" committed to performance rather than image. He was "proud to be Scottish and British" and "would relish the opportunity to take on David Cameron and the Conservative Party." Brown's solid but not particularly inspiring performance may not preclude a leadership challenge by a party heavyweight, because many in the Labour rank and file and the UK public would welcome a mature airing of competing visions for the post-Blair future. As of now, Brown is the clear favorite even if challenged. ¶6. (SBU) The Chancellor's address was upstaged by a reporter's claim to have overheard Cherie Blair remark "that's a lie" when Brown said in his speech that it had been a "privilege" to work with her husband. She flatly denied making the remark, but the media made hay of it given her poor relations with Brown over the years. The Prime Minister cleverly defused this issue in his speech the next day by joking "at least I don't have to worry about her running off with the bloke next door." (NOTE: The Browns live next door to the Blairs on Downing Street. END NOTE.) (U) Clinton Praises Blair and Brown -------------- ¶7. (U) Former President Bill Clinton was the featured guest speaker at the conference. In his September 27 address, he said the Labour government had been a "stunning success" for Britain and the world. As expected, he had warm words for Blair, whose moving speech he called a "magnificent valedictory." He also praised Gordon Brown's "brilliant economic leadership." He noted that the UK has shown it is possible to implement Kyoto environmental commitments in a way that does not damage the economy but actually creates new sources of employment. The former President urged his audience to be proud of Labour's achievements in office, not allow them to be taken for granted, and always embrace change, making clear to the British public that the "progressive" party is the natural "agent of change" in the UK. (U) Support for Brown Grows -------------- ¶8. (U) Closing the conference, Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Party Leader John Prescott endorsed Brown as the next leader. Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett had done so earlier in the week. Environment Secretary David Miliband - a staunch Blairite who calls himself part of the "second generation of New Labour" and is seen as a potential future Prime Minister - came out for Brown even before the conference. Prescott also made clear he intends to stand down when Blair resigns, so the party will hold elections for both Leader and Deputy Leader. (U) Candidates, Actual and Potential -------------- ¶9. (SBU) So far, only Brown and John McDonnell MP have declared their intention to run for the leadership when Blair steps down. When there is a vacancy, a valid nomination requires the support of 12.5 percent of Labour MPs; that currently puts the magic number at either 44 or 45, depending on rounding. McDonnell, a left-winger, may be able to muster that many signatures but is given no chance of actually winning. A more serious challenge to Brown could come from a Cabinet heavyweight. The most mentioned possibilities are Home Secretary John Reid, a staunch Blairite, and Education Secretary Alan Johnson, a rising star with strong union SIPDIS roots. Both are keeping their options open. ¶10. (SBU) The field contending for Deputy Leader is more crowded: Secretary of State for Northern Ireland and for Wales Peter Hain has announced he will stand; so have Constitutional Affairs minister Harriet Harman and Jon Cruddas MP. Cruddas, a former Blair aide, wants to abolish the post of Deputy Prime Minister and combine the jobs of Deputy Leader and Party Chairman. Johnson said earlier this year that he intended to run for Deputy Leader when the job became vacant. Leader of the House of Commons Jack Straw is also believed to be interested. (U) Controversies Avoided -------------- ¶11. (U) Some in the party were irked that the Conference Arrangements Committee rejected attempts to place on the agenda debates about the timing of Blair's departure and about whether or not to replace the UK's Trident nuclear deterrent. On Trident, Blair has promised a decision by the end of this year. The committee ruled that the matter was not suitable for the conference agenda because it had already been discussed fully by the national policy forum. Three senior figures, Hain, Harman and Secretary of State for International Development Hilary Benn, however, all said there still needs to be a full public debate - in the country, if not at the conference. ¶12. (SBU) COMMENT: We assess that Blair's masterful speech will help him retain authority despite the knowledge that his days in office are numbered. Some find it hard to imagine him reprising this performance at the spring conference in February, but we do not find that argument compelling: as long as he remains Prime Minister, he will be prominently in the public eye and will continue to make eloquent speeches; his final farewell may be even more emotional than this one. Blair has said he will go by early September 2007, but May is seen as a key time: he will reach the ten-year mark in office on May 2; elections will be held in Scotland and Wales on May 3 for devolved legislatures and in England for local councils. Labour is likely to get hammered no matter who leads the party; there is much to be said for letting the outgoing leader remain in power until after the elections to take the blame rather than spoiling his successor's start. Visit London's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/london/index. cfm Tuttle