AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH TOGOLESE NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L LOME 000889 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2011 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM EAID PINR TO SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH TOGOLESE NATIONAL DIALOGUE CHAIRMAN AGBOYIBO REF: A. LOME 800 ¶B. LOME 798 Classified By: Amb. David B. Dunn. Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (SBU) Ambassador welcomed Togolese opposition party leader and chairman of the recently concluded national political dialogue Yawovi Agboyibo at the residence September 10 for an hour long, one-on-one meeting. An attorney by profession, Agboyibo is president of the Action Committee for Renewal (CAR) party, one of the three main opposition parties in Togo. He was selected by fellow participants earlier this year to chair the national dialogue process. His patient, lawyerly approach undoubtedly contributed to the ultimate success of the dialogue, reflected in unanimous agreement on a comprehensive political agreement on August 22 (refs). We meet with Agboyibo every couple of months to review developments. Like most Togolese politicians, he is pro-American; the day after this meeting, September 11, he attended a memorial event held at the residence. ¶2. (C) The question of who would be appointed prime minister in the national union government (a key provision in the comprehensive political agreement) was uppermost on Agboyibo's mind. He clearly would be happy to have the job but recognizes that the UFC party of Gilchrist Olympio is the opposition's 700 pound gorilla. At the same time, the UFC's more radical posture, compounded by personality problems, make the issue of a prime minister coming from UFC ranks problematic. Agboyibo observed candidly that the greater the tensions between the UFC and the ruling RPT, the greater his own chances of emerging as the compromise candidate. Agboyibo deemed it unlikely that President Faure would retain the current prime minister, Edem Kodjo, who heads a party that agreed to cooperate with the RPT following Faure's disputed election in 2005. Although he did not think the nomination of Kodjo would bring opposition youth onto the street, as some have speculated, he said it was unlikely any of the three main opposition parties would agree to join a Kjo-headed government, putting at risk Faure's reform agenda (and therefore reengagement with the donor community). For these reasons, Agboyibo considered Kodgo's reappointment unlikely. ¶3. (C) Agboyibo expressed misgivings over a realignment of the magistrate corps announced the previous week by the GOT, which he said reflected Kodjo's accomodationist posture vis-a-vis RPT hardliners. The move was important because the magistrates will have an influential role in the local election committees that will organize next year's legislative elections, the second key focus of the comprehensive political agreement. He said he hoped the national union government would be able to make changes to the new line-up of magistrates. ¶4. (C) Asked about dynamics during the final stages of the dialogue, Agboyibo said that Burkina Faso president Blaise Compaore's major achievement was convincing the other two opposition parties (the UFC and Leopold Gnininvi's CDPA) to sign. After all other issues had been resolved, the final point of contention (which Agboyibo characterized as a deal-breaker) centered on legal requirements regarding residency and dual-nationality for candidates in the next presidential election. As currently written, the rules would rule out Gilchrist Olympio. The UFC and CDPA wanted new rules written into the agreement; the government and RPT wanted the new national union government to tackle the issue. Under pressure from Compaore, the UFC and CDPA caved, Agboyibo (protect) reported. ¶5. (C) Comment. Is Agboyibo the best choice to head the government of national union? Probably not. He appears tired, and his best days as a politician are probably behind him (even though, in retrospect, he was ideally suited to chair the dialogue). Because Faure chose to complete a tour of European capitals before tackling the issue of naming the new government and is seen as having dragged his feet, this has emerged as a bigger issue than it needed to be. The mini-controversy will favor Agboyibo's chances as a compromise candidate, especially given his success with the dialogue. End Comment. DUNN