SLOVENIA: CENTER LEFT LEADER POSITIONS FOR VICTORY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000613

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: CENTER LEFT LEADER POSITIONS FOR VICTORY


Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Borut Pahor, leader of Slovenia's Social
Democratic Party (SD) and member of the European Parliament,
has embarked on a program to raise the profile and broaden
the appeal of his party. COM hosted Pahor for lunch in late
August to sound him out on his future plans and vision for
Slovenia's political future. Pahor's short-term goal is to
take over leadership of the center left from the Liberal
Democracy Party (LDS),and in the medium term he believes SD
could lead the government. Pahor also has personal ambitions
(about which he is still a bit cagey) to run for President of
Slovenia in 2008. Borut Pahor is by far Slovenia's most
telegenic and polished politician. He has made several
strategic moves over the course of the last 12 months, which
should give his party a boost in upcoming local elections
(October 22) and help build momentum for either a
presidential bid in 2007 or a role in the government in 2008.
End Summary.

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Slovenia On Top of The World
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2. (U) A year ago, during the SD annual meeting, Pahor
easily won the consent of the party to change its name from
the United List of Social Democrats to simply Social
Democrats. This put his party more clearly in the camp of
the European social democratic tradition. In July 2006 at
the Party Congress, the Social Democrats adopted a new,
development-oriented, party program and titled it "Slovenia
on Top of the World." In his lunch with COM, Pahor, assuming
the posture of elder statesman (he is only 43),said he'd
given the task to draft the new party credo to "young
intellectuals" in his party. As heir to the Slovenian
Communist Party, Pahor and the SD leadership had to walk a
fine line in order not to alienate the party faithful. He
appears to be mostly successful in striking a balance between
social welfare and economic development which he terms (but
hasn't completely defined) as "socially acceptable reforms."
With this new program, Pahor wants to project himself and his
party as strong leaders in opposition, and capable potential
future leaders of government.


3. (U) In addition to putting Slovenia on top of the world,
Pahor and SD have more concrete, near-term goals: success in
local elections, continuing cooperation with the ruling
coalition on Slovenia's Development Partnership, and
preparing the SD platform for 2008 parliamentary elections.

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Gaining Ground in Local Elections
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4. (U) SD currently holds 19 mayoral seats including in
Ljbljana, Maribor, and Nova Gorica, the proposed sit of the
potential HIT-Harrah's gaming/resort megadeal. Pahor
stressed, however, that SD will meaure success more by the
number of seats his part gains on municipal councils. Pahor
is hoping t reverse the declining trend SD has experienced
n the last three sets of elections (in 2002 SD won nly 11%
of seats) by fielding candidates for coucil seats in 90% of
Slovenia's municipalities.

5. (C) When COM queried Pahor on his hopes for th Ljubljana
mayoral race where SD member Darija Smcic currently holds
office, he shook his head an acknowledged she probably
didn't have a chance,but they would support her nonetheless.

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Cooperation in Inerest of Common Good
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6. (U) From the moment ballots were tallied in the 2004
elections which brought PM Janez Jansa and his Slovenian
Democratic Party (SDS) to power, there has been rumor and
speculation that Pahor and SD would join the coalition.
Until thi point, however, the strong Communist roots of SD
have been serious obstacles to realizing this potntial.
Pahor has sought other, more gradual, waysto move SD closer
to the center (and power) that would be less offensive than
outright membership in a coalition led by the center right.
In the spirit of doing what is best for Slovenia, its economy
and social safety net, Pahor joined the "Development
Partnership" established by the ruling coalition in April

2006. The SD has been active and can even claim success. It
lobbied strongly and vocally against introducing a flat tax
in Slovenia, which ultimately succumbed to public and
political pressure.


7. (C) Comment: This was a brilliant move on Pahor's part, as
he is seen to be cooperating with the political right in
Slovenia's best interests, but with this significant "win"
retains his opposition bona fides. Pahor had also implied in
an earlier interview that a minister (Finance) could "fall"
if the idea of a flat tax did not "fall" first. Pahor was
coy on this issue during lunch, but it is clear that he needs
to continue to balance his cooperation with SDS with
assertions of his party's differing views on other issues of
importance.

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Shedding Communist Associations
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8. (U) In prepping his party for a serious run at Parliament
in 2008, Pahor has recognized the need to make a clean break
with SD's Communist past. This has not been, thus far, an
easy sell. By pulling in the younger members of the party to
draft the new platform, he is laying the groundwork for
refashioning the SD into a modern, European, center-left,
social democratic party. The author of the "Slovenia at the
Top of the World" document, Igor Luksic, a professor at
Ljubljana's Faculty of Social Sciences, said in a press
interview that SD needed to reach for the summit of Slovenian
politics. He acknowledged it would be a difficult task
because some party members did not embrace the new program.
Luksic called on "these 'comrades' to move aside and make
room for those who believe and who have energy and will."
Pahor also offended the SD old guard by saying to the press,
that while he recognized the Communist party as part of the
"tradition of the left," he and SD "reject the values and
political strategies of the left that can nowadays be
regarded as communist."

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COMMENT: Mature Opposition, Ready for Greater Responsibility
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9. (C) During lunch, Pahor was relaxed and relatively open
about his ambitions both for the party and his own prospects.
With LDS in disarray and decline since 2004, Pahor has
easily grabbed the stage to represent the left. He needs,
now, to consolidate his position, and that clearly requires
showing political maturity and shedding the negative
connotations of SD's Communist past. Pahor credits his time
in Brussels with his evolution as a more substantive and more
European politician. Despite his cooperation on the
Development Partnership, Pahor remains adamant that he has no
designs on the current coalition. He did not say never;
however, "not now" was the clear message. Pahor also
expressed his personal interest in running for President in
2007, and leaving the party to the "younger generation"
(Pahor is only 43). If SD does well in the October 22
elections, however, Pahor is sure his party will ask him to
stay on in order to secure the best outcome in 2008. Pahor
said he was amenable to that, but it was clear his first
choice would be the presidency. Whichever way the next
elections go, we should expect to see Borut Pahor at the top
of Slovenian politics sooner rather than later.
ROBERTSON