SLOVENIA: LOOKAHEAD TO THE IAEA BOARD OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000576 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2016 TAGS: KNNP PARM PINR PREL ENRG SI SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: LOOKAHEAD TO THE IAEA BOARD OF GOVERNOR'S CHAIRMANSHIP REF: LJUBLJANA 563 Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: PolMilOff met with MFA Department of Security Policy Officer Bostjan Jerman to discuss the recent visit of International Atomic Energy Agency Secretary General Mohamad El Baradei to Slovenia and Slovenia's upcoming Chairmanship of the IAEA Board of Governors. Jerman said that discussions during El Baradei's visit focused on the current situations in Iran and North Korea, as well as preparations for Slovenia's IAEA Chairmanship. El Baradei appealed to the GOS for a slow, diplomatic approach with Iran. Jerman also expressed concern that Slovenia could get bogged down dealing with IAEA administrative issues rather than providing leadership on policy discussions. End Summary. -------------- El Baradei on Iran -------------- ¶2. (C) IAEA Secretary General Mohamad El Baradei visited Slovenia August 27-28 to discuss Slovenia's upcoming chairmaship of the IAEA board of governors (BOG). Bostjan Jerman, MFA Security Policy Officer, reported that El Baradei made a strong argument for a slow, diplomatic approach with Iran, saying that this would give moderates the space to negotiate, while a fast track to sanctions would play into the hands of Iranian conservatives and ensure that a negotiated settlement is not reached. Jerman said that El Baradei felt that Iran was still "five years away" from development of nuclear weapons and that while the labs are running in Iran, "they aren't enriching anything at the moment." El Baradei said that he was concerned that Iran will "become another North Korea" if diplomatic negotiations do not work. Prime Minister Janez Jansa's public statements reflected a similar viewpoint after their meeting, when he said that the response from Iran was "by no means a step back" and left the door open for continued negotiations. As stated in reftel, Slovenia's Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel supported a more cautious approach during the EU Foreign Minister's meeting September 1 and 2 in Finland. -------------- Slovenia's Chairmanship of the BOG -------------- ¶3. (C) According to Jerman, the more dominant topics of discussion during El Baradei's visit were administrative issues associated with Slovenia's IAEA BOG Chairmanship, including discussion of the organization's budget and technical assistance that Slovenia is giving IAEA. Jerman commented that there were several major administrative items that would be coming before the IAEA BOG over the next year, including a budget discussion, and suggested that these items might turn out to be the focus of Slovenia's Chairmanship, to the detriment of high profile issues with Iran or North Korea which "are ongoing, and will likely not be resolved within the next year." ¶4. (C) PM Jansa commented after El Baradei's visit that Slovenia does not have problematic relations with any of the stakeholders in the major open issues that the IAEA will face during Slovenia's Chairmanship. Slovenian Ambassador to Vienna, Ernest Petric made similar public comments, saying that the primary obligation during the Chairmanship is to "run the Board of Governors correctly and objectively," eschewing Slovenia's national interest in favor of assuring that member countries "arrive at common viewpoints." Ultimately, Jerman commented, Slovenia would strive to be a neutral broker during its time as IAEA Chairman. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: We believe Slovenia will take a cautious approach to its IAEA BOG Chairmanship, presenting itself as a neutral steward that will not shirk the administrative issues during its time of leadership. While the intentions of the GoS seem positive, we are concerned that some of the frustrations we had with the GOS while it was Chairman in Office of the OSCE in 2005 could be repeated. While CiO of the OSCE, Slovenia tended to wait for consensus to develop (or not) on issues rather than roll up its sleeves to help create the circumstances that would bring about a consensus. Post believes it would be helpful in the long run to engage with Slovenia early and often as it takes on its new responsibilities. We will need to push the GoS to take a stronger, more activist approach while it holds the Chairmanship of the IAEA in order to ensure that the organization has a strong, unified voice in the current debate around Iran and North Korea. END COMMENT. LJUBLJANA 00000576 002 OF 002 ¶6. (U) BACKGROUND: Slovenia will take the Chairmanship of the IAEA Board of Governors in late September. Ernest Petric, Slovenia's Ambassador to Vienna and its permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, will preside over the Board. Slovenia has been a member of IAEA since 1992 and has already served as Board Chairman once, in the 1998-1999 term. The IAEA will celebrate its 50th year of existence during the 2006-2007 term. ¶7. (U) Bio Note: Ambassador Ernest Petric has a long and distinguished academic and diplomatic career. He was born in 1936, is married and has three children. He received his Ph.D in law from the University of Ljubljana in 1965 and supplemented his studies attending programs in Sweden, The Netherlands, Greece, UK and Germany. From 1983-86 he was a professor of international relations and international law at the University of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. He was Yugoslavia's ambassador to India and Nepal 1989-1991 and Slovenia's first Ambassador to the U.S. and Mexico from 1991-97. From 1997-2000 he was Deputy Foreign Minister and from 2000-2002 he was Slovenia's Permanent Representative at the United Nations in New York. He has been Slovenia's Ambassador to Austria and International Organizations in Vienna since 2002 and in 2002-2003 he was dual hatted as Perm Rep at the OSCE. ¶8. (C) Bio Note/Comment: Petric's long association with the United States, first as Ambassador in Washington and later at the UN in New York, give him an almost unique experience among Slovene diplomats. Our experience indicates that he is positively inclined towards close consultations with the USG. While Ljubljana may prefer to stake out a very neutral position in Vienna, close and frequent engagement of Petric in Vienna should ensure our positions are given close and careful consideration. ROBERTSON