DEMARCHE DELIVERED: EU FOREIGN MINISTERS AND IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000563 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2016 TAGS: KNNP PARM PGOV PREL IR SI SUBJECT: DEMARCHE DELIVERED: EU FOREIGN MINISTERS AND IRAN REF: SECSTATE 143323 Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) PolMilOff delivered reftel points urging Slovenia to support a strong EU message on Iran to MFA Department of Security Policy Officer Bostjan Jerman on August 31. Jerman thanked PolMilOff for the points, said that he had received something similar from the EU Troika on August 30, and promised to relay them to the Head of the Security Policy Department and on to the Foreign Minister in preparation for the EU Ministerial September 1-2 in Lapeenranta, Finland. ¶2. (C) Jerman commented that he expected the European perspective to be less strong than that of the U.S. In the context of the discussion, Jerman discussed the August 27-28 visit of International Atomic Energy Agency Secretary General Mohamad El Baradei to Slovenia. He said that during the visit El Baradei made the argument that a slow, diplomatic approach is the correct path to take with Iran, to give moderates the space to negotiate. In contrast, a fast track to sanctions would play into the hands of Iranian conservatives and ensure that a negotiated settlement is not reached. Jerman said that El Baradei is concerned that Iran will "become another North Korea" if diplomatic negotiations do not work. After his meeting with El Baradei, Prime Minister Janez Jansa's public statements reflected this viewpoint. He said that the response from Iran was "by no means a step back" and left the door open for continued negotiations. ¶3. (C) COMMENT. While Jerman clearly understood and agreed with the substance of the reftel points, it is clear that Slovenia will come to the EU Ministerial with a cautious approach that continues to focus on "carrots" with only the threat of "sticks." The GoS position is likely to reflect that of the EU Troika; it is unlikely that the GoS will forcefully advocate for a fast or strong message to Iran at the September 1-2 ministerial. END COMMENT. ROBERTSON