PORTUGAL PERMITS FREE ENTRY TO THE LEAST LIKELY

UNCLAS LISBON 000951 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ELAB PREL PGOV PO SUBJECT: PORTUGAL PERMITS FREE ENTRY TO THE LEAST LIKELY IMMIGRANTS ¶1. (U) Summary: On May 1, Portugal followed through with its March 10 commitment to allow the free movement of students and workers from the eight of the ten new EU members (excluding Cyprus and Malta). The announcement enjoyed significant press coverage, especially in light of the high-profile U.S. immigration debate, but the move is viewed by interlocutors as having little impact on Portugal's market since it is unlikely to affect nationals from the country's top seven immigrant populations. End summary. Doors Open but... -------------- ¶2. (U) On May 12, Pol-Econ Officer spoke with Alexandra Briliero and Nuno Marquez from the Foreign Ministry about the government's motivation to open Portugal's borders to new EU members. Briliero said the Portuguese government had researched the possible effects of the new immigration and had concluded in a February 8 report that liberalization would have little to no impact on Portugal's labor market. She commented that Portugal's geographic distance, distinct culture and language, and lackluster economy would likely deter immigration. Nevertheless, the GOP believes its decision demonstrates solidarity with the new member states and shows Portugal's interest in establishing a broader Europe. Briliero remarked that the GOP's concern about immigration stems both from Portugal's own emigrant community's experience and the hope of avoiding mistakes made by other European nations, like France. ¶3. (U) Per a recent Eurostat study, immigrants make up almost 10% of the aging Portuguese workforce. That number is steadily increasing as legal and illegal immigrants come from Brazil (14.9%),the Ukraine (14.7%),Cape Verde (14.3%), Angola (7.9%),Guinea-Bissau (5.6%),Moldova (3%),and Romania (2.7%),according to Portugal's Immigration and Border Service March 2006 statistics. Almost half of Portugal's immigrants live in Lisbon, with the next largest concentration in Faro in the Algarve. Since none of the leading immigrant nations are included in the free movement policy, Marquez predicted that any immigrants from the newly permitted nations would probably go unnoticed given the size of the immigrant population from the other nations. Labor Not Concerned -------------- ¶4. (SBU) General Workers' Union (UGT) Executive Secretary Luis Lopes told Pol-Econ officer on May 9 that the measure was more likely to affect other immigrants rather than Portuguese workers. He reported that immigrants took similar jobs -- heavy labor, unskilled labor, and other positions unfilled by Portuguese citizens -- regardless of their skills or backgrounds. He added that unemployment numbers among the Portuguese have not changed despite increasing immigration. "The newest arrivals just put more established immigrants out of business," remarked Lopes. He mentioned that immigration issues were becoming more important to Portugal given ongoing debates in the United States and France. Comment: Preparing for the Future -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Comment: Although Portugal has yet to face a significant immigration wave, the government has already begun to consider the message it wants to convey to would-be immigrants. Discussions with legal and illegal immigrants confirm Lopes's statement that newer immigrants could cause greater unemployment among the most established immigrant groups and thereby create conditions for social unrest. For now, however, Portugal remains fully open to EU members (with the exception of Cyprus and Malta) and relatively welcoming to eastern European and Lusophone community citizens. End comment. Hoffman