C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 001989

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2016
TAGS: YI BO LE PREL PGOV PO
SUBJECT: PORUTUGUESE VIEWS ON THE SEPTEMBER 15 GAERC

REF: SECSTATE 151189

Classified By: Dana M. Brown, Pol/Econ Officer, State Department
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) P/E officer paid a call on MFA Deputy European
Correspondent, Ana Filomena Rocha on September 14, to discuss
the policy areas listed in reftel before the September 15
GAERC. Rocha stressed that the EU's policy response to the
situation in Sudan would be given the most consideration
during the meeting. Nevertheless she commented on the other
reftel policy areas and offered insight into the current EU
interaction with Iran:

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Balkans
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2. (SBU) Kosovo: Discussion on Kosovo will be brief in view
of the successful election last Sunday. The EU plans to
begin negotiation with civil society institutions soon.
Rocha commented that it is a shame to see the growing
disparity between Kosovo and Serbia. She added that total
independence for Kosovo would be a significant mistake. "How
far will you push Serbia before you have a situation like
with Germany before WWII?" she asked.

-- (SBU) Serbia: The EU's meeting with the Serbs on September
29 is unlikely to reinvigorate the process especially since
the GOS has limited options in dealing with Mladic, according
to Rocha. She said the GAERC would discuss strategies to
engage through scholarly exchanges and public diplomacy
efforts but Rocha remarked that it seemed that the process
had stalled.

-- (C) Bosnia: The GAERC will press Bosnia to tone down its
rhetoric especially with regards to the Srspka region. Rocha
stressed that the current rumblings are especially troubling
to Portugal in light of the GOP's recent discussion about
redeploying troops serving in Bosnia to other areas
(including Lebanon) by the end of the year. The GOP will
monitor the situation very closely and might reconsider its
plans if the situation deteriorates further.

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Africa
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3. (C) Sudan and Darfur: Rocha said the GAERC would focus

carefully on Sudan during this month's meeting to find
constructive ways to respond to the increasing violence. In
particular, EU members will be watching whether the African
Union (AU) decides to extend its mission during its September
18 meeting. Currently, EU member states want to display
public support for an extension to the AU mission, according
to Rocha, in order to avoid future blame from the AU for a
deteriorating situation. Rocha underscored that it is
critical to avoid creating a vacuum in which neither the AU
nor the UN have a mission in country. The EU Secretariat
plans to request that European representatives demarche
Moscow, Tripoli, and in Arab League nations to attempt to win
support for a UN mandate and urge that all military attacks
stop immediately. Rocha suggested that the EU was likely to
attempt to approach select nations while in New York for UNGA.

-- (C) Democratic Republic of Congo: Javier Solana will brief
the group on his September 12 and 13 visit. Rocha commented
that she also saw the situation deteriorating fast in the
Democratic Republic of Congo and indicated that their
decision to postpone elections is a bad omen.

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Middle East
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4. (C) Middle East: Rocha noted that the informal Gymnich
meeting was a useful discussion but had been overcome by
events since the situation had changed significantly over the
last two weeks. Rather than discuss the crisis in "big
picture" terms, Rocha anticipated that the GAERC would focus
on practical mission and specific policy concerns.

-- (C) Israeli-Palestinian Issues: Rocha commented that the
EU will need to decide as a group whether to compromise on
issues with the Palestinian government. For example, would
the EU be willing to accept two of the three principles as
"good enough" from the Palestinians? Rocha said she
suspected it would be a tough discussion since it will be the
first time member states discuss the EU's policy limits.

-- (U) Lebanon: UNIFIL contributions, reconstruction efforts,
and coordination plans will be the primary agenda items,

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according to Rocha.

-- (C) Iran: Solana will brief the attendees on his meetings
with the Iranians this week. Rocha noted that the Iranians
had met with some EU members but not with Portugal. She
raised the possibility that the Iranians were attempting to
divide and conquer the Europeans with such visits. Rocha
further reported that Portugal considers Iran a threat but
would be more interested in UN sanctions than in pursuing
bilateral sanctions.

-- (C) Iraq: The GAERC plans to discuss Iraq very briefly and
recap the Abu Dhabi meeting outcomes. Rocha said Portugal
will need further details on the International Compact for
Iraq before deciding whether to support it.
O'Neal