LUKASHENKO'S NEW FOREIGN POLICY: A METHOD TO THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 LINSK 001234 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON CH VE AJ IR BO SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO'S NEW FOREIGN POLICY: A METHOD TO THE MADNESS *********************** * Missing Section 001 * *********************** *********************** * Missing Section 002 * *********************** *********************** * Missing Section 003 * *********************** MINSK 12011234 004 OF 004 of shielding them from significandly higher gas `rices next year. ¶16. (C) Despite Belarus' perceived successeq with the EU, most analysts agree that Lukashenko is fully aware that theQ Un)ted States is a much harder nut to crack. That said, theQ GOB seeks to at least keep the *SG from taking meaqures to furTher constrain U.S.-Belarus trade -- e.g., securing the renewal of the Jackson-Vanik waiver and the removal of language referring to economic sanctions from the BelarusQ Demmcracy ReauthoRizaion ctdraft legislaion -- witPout addressing humanrights concerns. Key members in Lukashenko'sadministration havestep`ed up their attempts t engage in a "subqtative dialogue" to normalize bilateRal relationXbut the GOB routinely qualifies that such a dialoue would be on the@bas)s of "mutual respect" (ref G). MFA CounseXor Rzheusskiy strongly sugg%sted to Pol/Econ ChRef that the USG will have to accept that Belarus holds fundamentally different views on political issues, but noted such differences should not spill over into bilateral trade. Active FoQmatign of an Anti-West Block/ -------------- ¶17. (C) YakovlevskiY and several other experts with whom we have spoken are convinced thaQ Belarus is actively woQking to reinvigorate the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and set hp LukaShenko as the eventual successor to Cuban leader Fidel Castro as the next "Papa" of the anti-West block. Zaiko noted that Lukashenko is the ideal anti-globalist leader %- he is young (51 years old),energetic, bold, and he sits at the helm of a growing, stable@(for now) economy in thJ heart of Europe. In thi3 respect, some analysts assert that Lukashenko's highly publicized relations with countries such as Venezuela and Idan are as much politicaX as they areQ economic@in .ature. Pkzdynak agdeed with this assessmenh but noted that Belarjs' foreign podicy is fojnded more onQ self-prefervation than on ideoloNical interests. CommJnt -------------- ¶18. (CR We agree with our contBcts' assessmefts thatQBelarus' extremely tensJ relationship with RussRa has Prompted LukashJnko to sTrengthen politRcal and econoeic tiesQwith thoSe countries prJpar%d to tolerate contaFt with him. However, Rf Lukashenko again refu.VQto seLl at least halL of Beltransgaz `nd Russia fohlows through /n its promise to signIficantly raise gas pric%s for Belarus next yearQ Lqkashanko's ardentl9 statist approach t^ doMestic andQ foreign pol)cy will nkt liVely save the country from tough economic times. Belar5s reiains extremely depEndent on Russian ener'y supplies and markets,and deeper relationship3 with ejergy-rich couNtries would only partially mitiNate the effects of economQc pressure from Russia )n the medium to long Qerm. Thus, despite@tou'h talk abmut the need f/r greater independenc%, Lukashelko's only escapd from crisis in the immediate future appaars to be the Kremlin's continued willingness to prop up the fragile economy. Stewart