ELECTION UPDATE: HUMALA GAINS STRENGTH AS FLORES

UNCLAS LIMA 000979

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: HUMALA GAINS STRENGTH AS FLORES
CONTINUES HER STEADY DECLINE

REF: LIMA 759

Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) The latest national poll by the Apoyo consultancy,
taken 3/8-10, showed center-right Unidad Nacional candidate
Lourdes Flores holding on to first place amongst the "valid
votes," although her support fell two points to 31 percent;
ultra-nationalist Union por el Peru (UPP) candidate Ollanta
Humala threatening to pass her after advancing four points to
30 percent, while APRA party candidate (and former President)
Alan Garcia held steady at 22 percent. Given that this poll
does not/not reflect the views of 20 percent of the
electorate living in isolated rural areas, who are more
likely to vote for Humala or Garcia than for Flores, it is
quite possible that Humala is in the lead, with Flores and
Garcia in a close battle for the second run-off slot. In the
congressional race, APRA and Unidad Nacional remained in
front, although both lost some support while UPP gained two
points. With 41 percent of those polled still somewhat
uncertain who they will vote for (down from 58 percent two
weeks ago),the race to qualify for the presidential run-off
remains too close to call. END SUMMARY.

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THE LATEST POLL RESULTS
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2. (U) The Apoyo poll interviewed 2000 people in 79
provinces around the country, representing 81 percent of the
Peruvian population. When asked which candidate they would
vote for if the election were held that day, the response was:

Lourdes Flores 31 percent (down two percent from two
weeks earlier)
Ollanta Humala 30 percent (up four percent)
Alan Garcia 22 percent (unchanged)
Valentin Paniagua 5 percent (down two percent)
Martha Chavez 5 percent (up one percent)
Others 7 percent (down one percent)

The results are based on the "valid vote" count, which
excludes votes cast in blank or respondents who did not name
a candidate. In the Apoyo poll, 74 percent of respondents
provided "valid votes," which are the ballots that the
election authorities will use to determine the final results.
Even these "valid votes" are not firm, as 41 percent of
those polled said they were still uncertain who they will
actually vote for (though this is down from 58 percent two
weeks ago - Reftel). In terms of the total vote (including
blank ballots or refusals to respond),Flores fell from 24 to
22.9 percent, Humala rose from 19 to 22.2 percent, while
Garcia edged up from 16 to 16.3 percent. (COMMENT: It
appears that the trend is for the former undecideds to choose
Humala over the other two main candidates. END COMMENT).



3. (U) With none of the candidates in line to win a
majority of the vote, the election will likely be decided by
a second round run-off between the two candidates receiving
the most votes in the first round. According to the poll
results, in a run-off Flores would defeat Humala by 54-46
percent (down from 60-40 percent two weeks ago),and would
defeat Garcia by 59-41 percent (down from 62-38 percent),
while Humala would defeat Garcia 53-47 percent (two weeks ago
they were tied).


4. (U) In the congressional race, the Apoyo poll indicated
that APRA and Unidad Nacional remain the top two
vote-getters, though each lost support over the past two
weeks, while UPP strengthened its hold on third place by
gaining two points. The Fujimorista Alliance for the Future
picked-up three points, while Paniagua's Centrist Front fell
one point and President Alejandro Toledo's Peru Posible party
did the same, thereby falling to 3 percent, below the four
percent minimum threshold for winning a congressional seat.
The following table lists each party's support, while our

calculations of the approximate proportional number of
legislative slots that each party would take are in
parenthesis:

APRA 23 percent (36 seats)
Unidad Nacional 20 percent (31 seats)
Union por el Peru 17 percent (27 seats)
Alliance for the Future 9 percent (14 seats)
Centrist Front 8 percent (12 seats)


(NOTE: The congressional races will be decided on a
proportional basis in each of Peru's 25 electoral districts
(the 24 departments and Callao, with metropolitan Lima
grouped-in with Lima Department),rather than nationwide.
Thus it is possible that the final distribution of seats will
differ substantially from our rough calculations on a
nationwide basis. In addition, while the law provides for a
four percent minimum threshold for a party to place a
legislator in Congress, there is an exception for those
parties who manage to elect at least five representatives in
two or more electoral districts. Consequently, it remains
possible that a party with less than four percent of the
national vote could obtain representation in Congress. END
NOTE).

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COMMENT
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5. (SBU) Continuing our horse-race comparison from the last
election update (Reftel),the three front runners are
entering the home stretch with Flores still in front but
flagging, Humala commencing his kick and Garcia maintaining
his pace. If we factor in the likely preferences of the
isolated rural vote, the result could well be Humala ahead
and pulling away, with Flores and Garcia at most a length
apart, the latter being in a more favorable position for the
stretch run. Flores is trying to re-energize her campaign
with populist proposals (promising to create 650,000 jobs
annually, provide health insurance for eight million people,
vastly increase education spending, double police on the
streets, support USD two billion in lending for
micro-enterprises and USD one billion for farm lending),but
these initiatives do not/not seem to be registering with the
voters. Her opponents have criticized her for making
unrealistic commitments and suggested that this evidences
Flores' desperation at her falling poll numbers (she has
steadily dropped a point a week since her late-January high
of 37 percent). Meanwhile, Humala's campaign is
concentrating on solidifying his base in the southern
highlands and coast, while making inroads in the poor
suburban belt around Lima. Garcia is doing the same in Lima,
while also focusing on reconstituting APRA's historical
"solid north" in the northern coastal belt. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE