LATEST POLL: CENTER-RIGHT CANDIDATE LOURDES FLORES

UNCLAS LIMA 000633 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SNAR PREL ECON PE SUBJECT: LATEST POLL: CENTER-RIGHT CANDIDATE LOURDES FLORES MAINTAINS LEAD OVER ANTI-SYSTEM CANDIDATE OLLANTA HUMALA; FUJIMORISTA MARTHA CHAVEZ IN FIFTH PLACE REF: A. LIMA 494 ¶B. LIMA 453 ¶C. LIMA 382 ¶D. LIMA 351 ¶E. LIMA 346 Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) Center-right presidential candidate Lourdes Flores (Unidad Nacional alliance) has maintained her lead (35-25 percent) over ultra-nationalist anti-system candidate Ollanta Humala (Union por el Peru - UPP) in the latest Apoyo poll. Ex-President Alan Garcia (APRA) is a further eight points back, former interim President Valentin Paniagua (Centrist Front) has dropped further to eight percent, and Fujimorista candidate Martha Chavez (Alliance for the Future) continues her climb up, though still in single digits. The recent national Apoyo poll does not show a significant change from the poll two weeks ago. With only 53 percent of those polled having definitively made up their minds, it remains an open race with just over seven weeks until the election. -------------- THE LATEST POLL RESULTS -------------- ¶2. (U) The latest Apoyo poll, taken 2/8-10 in 78 provinces around the country representing 81 percent of Peru's electoral population, asked respondents who they would vote for if the election were held that day. The response was: Lourdes Flores 35 percent (down 2 percent from two weeks before) Ollanta Humala 25 percent (down 2 percent) Alan Garcia 17 percent (up 1 percent) Valentin Paniagua 8 percent (down 2 percent) Martha Chavez 6 percent (up 1 percent) Other candidates 9 percent Should the election go to a second-round run-off, as seems likely since no/no candidate is near winning a first round majority, the Apoyo poll indicated that Flores would easily defeat her principal challengers, Humala by 22 percent and Garcia by 34 percent. In a second-round between Humala and Garcia, the poll showed a statistical tie with Humala at 51 percent and Garcia at 49 percent. Unlike previous polls (Ref B),Apoyo based their analysis on the 78 percent of respondents that represented valid votes, and left aside the 15 percent of respondents who would vote blank, and 7 percent 
who did not/not know who they would vote for. This 22 percent of respondents who did not select a candidate is up four percent from two weeks ago. The valid vote count is what the National Elections Board (JNE) will use to determine the presidential and congressional results. ¶3. (U) While Flores remains in the lead, only 53 percent of those polled said they have made up their minds on who they would vote for, with 30 percent still deciding between two or three candidates, 13 percent responding that no candidate is convincing, and four percent replying they are uninformed or do not care. Despite Chavez's slow, but steady climb, 67 percent of those polled said they would definitely not/not vote for her, followed by 55 percent responding they would definitely not/not vote for Garcia and 53 percent responding in kind against Humala. When asked if they knew the date for the next elections (4/9),only 49 percent knew the correct answer. ¶4. (U) With respect to congressional preferences, the poll results indicated that the following parties would surpass the minimum threshold of four percent of the national vote for winning legislative seats (our calculations of the approximate proportional number of congressional slots that each party would take are in parentheses): Unidad Nacional (UN) 27 percent (41 seats) APRA 21 percent (32 seats) Union por el Peru (UPP) 15 percent (23 seats) Centrist Front 10 percent (14 seats) Alliance for the Future 7 percent (10 seats) Alliance for the Future is Chavez's Fujimorista party. The poll indicates that President Toledo's Peru Posible party would fall short of the threshold with three percent, as would Jaime Salinas' Justicia Nacional party. The congressional polling numbers are based on the 66 percent of the respondents who represented valid votes; 34 percent of respondents opted to vote blank or not specify their vote. This reflects the electorate's continued disenchantment with Congress which maintained an eight percent approval rating in the poll. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The two leading candidates were both battered in the press by accusations of the quality of candidates on their congressional tickets. However the impact on the polls was minimal. The ten point gap between Flores and Humala represents no change since the last poll two weeks ago. (Note: the previous poll showed an eight percent gap but also included the null/blank votes; the spread between the two weeks is mathematically unchanged. End Note.) Though a majority of those polled believed the human rights violations against Humala and the sexual harassment accusations against his second vice presidential candidate, Carlos Torres Caro, are true, the result was a minor drop for Humala. Martha Chavez continues to rally the support of Fujimoristas and may soon overtake Paniagua in the polls if current trends continue. End Comment. POWERS