ELECTION UPDATE: CENTER-RIGHT CANDIDATE LOURDES

UNCLAS LIMA 000453

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SNAR PREL ECON PE
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: CENTER-RIGHT CANDIDATE LOURDES
FLORES OPENS UP EIGHT POINT LEAD OVER ANTI-SYSTEM CANDIDATE
OLLANTA HUMALA

REF: A. LIMA 382


B. LIMA 351

C. LIMA 346

Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) Center-right presidential candidate Lourdes Flores
(Unidad Nacional alliance) has opened up an eight point lead
(30-22 percent) over ultra-nationalist anti-system candidate
Ollanta Humala (Union por el Peru - UPP) in the latest Apoyo
consultancy poll. Ex-President Alan Garcia (APRA) is a
further nine points back, former Interim President Valentin
Paniagua (Centrist Front) has descended into single digits,
and Fujimorista candidate Martha Chavez (Alliance for the
Future) is starting to move up from the also-rans. Poll
respondents continue to indicate that Flores would beat any
of the other contenders in a run-off. With some 50 percent
of the electorate still uncertain who they will actually vote
for, however, it remains far too early to tell how this
election is likely to come out. END SUMMARY.

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THE LATEST POLL RESULTS
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2. (U) The latest Apoyo poll, taken 1/25-27 in 30 urban
centers (5000-plus population) around the country, asked
interviewees who they would vote for if the election were
held that day. The response was:

Lourdes Flores 30 percent (up five percent from
two weeks before)
Ollanta Humala 22 percent (down six percent)
Alan Garcia 13 percent (down two percent)
Valentin Paniagua 8 percent (down two percent)
Martha Chavez 4 percent (up two percent)
Others 5 percent (down three percent)
None/Blank/Don't Know 18 percent (up six percent)

Should the election go to a second-round run-off, as seems
likely since no/no candidate is anywhere near winning a
first-round majority, the Apoyo poll indicated that Flores
would easily defeat each one of her three main challengers by
margins of 18 percent or more; Humala would defeat Garcia
(40-30 percent); and Paniagua would beat Humala (45-36
percent) and Garcia (47-28 percent).


3. (U) While Flores is pulling ahead, her support does
not/not seem to be firm. Only 13 percent of poll respondents
said that they were committed to her candidacy, while another
38 percent said that she was among their favored
alternatives; Humala's numbers were 11 percent and 25
percent, respectively. Furthermore, the Apoyo survey found
that the electorate remains highly volatile, with only 50
percent of those polled saying that they have made up their
minds, 34 percent answering that they are mulling over
two-three candidates, and 16 percent replying that they are
undecided or uninformed.


4. (U) With respect to congressional preferences, the poll
respondents indicated that the following parties would
surpass the minimum threshold for winning a legislative seat
of four percent of the national vote (our calculations of the
approximate proportional number of congressional slots that
each party would take are in brackets):

Unidad Nacional 18 percent (41 seats)
APRA 13 percent (30 seats)
UPP 11 percent (25 seats)
Fujimorista parties 5 percent (12 seats)
Centrist Front 5 percent (12 seats)

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CAMPAIGN DETAILS
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5. (U) Flores spent the past week campaigning outside of
Lima, first in the most populous northern department, Piura,
then in the most populous southern one, Arequipa. She
continued to concentrate on social issues such as health and
education, while pledging austerity and increased funding for
port development (without Chilean involvement). The other
parties took potshots at her campaign, concentrating their
fire on her First Vice President running mate Arturo Woodman.
Victor Garcia, President of Paniagua's Accion Popular party
(and a congressional candidate for the Centrist Front)
claimed that businessmen connected to Woodman had attempted
to press Paniagua to quit the race and support Flores. APRA
Congressman and party Co-Secretary General Jorge del Castillo
accused an unidentified "international financial entity" with
offering to reimburse Justicia Nacional candidate Jaime
Salinas for his campaign expenses if he were to retire and
transfer his support to Flores, a charge Salinas angrily
denied. Meanwhile, the media, particularly leftist daily "La
Republica," suggested that Woodman committed improprieties
when acting as middleman in the 1999 concession to the Romero
Group (which Woodman represented) of the port of Matarani in
Arequipa; Woodman replied that he has twice been exonerated
by investigating congressional committees. "La Republica"
has also led the charge against Unidad Nacional congressional
pre-candidate Horacio Canepa, claiming that the latter's
acquittal on charges he helped orchestrate electoral fraud in
1995 had been arranged by Fujimori's national security
advisor Vladimiro Montesinos.


6. (U) Ollanta Humala's campaign contined to be on the
defensive. Human rights organizations presented increased
evidence linking him to human rights violations connected to
his 1992 service with an anti-terrorist unit in the Huallaga
Valley, although none of the evidence is as yet conclusive
(Septel). Independent Moralizing Front Congressman Gustavo
Pacheco filed six criminal charges against Humala in
connection with these incidents, as well as with the 2005
Andahuaylas uprising led by Humala's brother Antauro, and the
Attorney General's Office has commenced an official
investigation. Humala's First Vice Presdent running mate
Carlos Torres was accused of sexual harassment by two former
students; Torres denies the charges and Humala says he will
stand by Torres unless the charges are proved. Meanwhile,
turmoil remains the rule within Humala's Peruvian Nationalist
Party (PNP),many of whose members are upset at Humala's
decision to only present candidates on the UPP list (the PNP
will have 60 percent of those slots),as well as at their
exclusion from the UPP slate. Finally, Humala and his top
advisors are furiously trying to complete the UPP
congressional list in time to meet the 2/8 registration
deadline, their task complicated by media investigations
showing that at least 18 of the pre-candidates are facing
criminal charges or have previous convictions.


7. (U) Alan Garcia spent the week campaigning in Lima,
Ancash and Piura, sounding populist themes (defense of the
eight hour work-day, opposition to service contracts designed
to circumvent labor protections, austerity in government
salaries and publicity expenses, increased issuance of
property titles). Valentin Paniagua also hit the campaign
trail, visiting Ica and taking walking tours of markets and
low-rent districts in Lima, where he told small textile
producers that, if elected, he would look into reducing the
Value Added Tax from 19 to 17 percent. Martha Chavez,
accompanied by ex-President Fujimori's brother Santiago (her
First Vice President running mate) and daughter Keiko (likely
heading the Fujimorista congressional list in Piura),
jump-started her campaign with some success, doubling her
national poll preference and rising to six percent in Lima.
President Alejandro Toledo's Peru Posible party was left
without a presidential ticket after its candidate, Rafael
Belaunde, formally withdrew from the race, ostensibly over
disagreements concerning the party's congressional list.

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COMMENT
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8. (SBU) The eight-point gap opening up between Flores and
Humala is a tenuous one. The shift in support to the Unidad


Nacional candidate may well be the result of a momentary
polarization of the race between Flores and Humala following
the latter's surge into a virtual tie for first in the polls
two weeks ago. Quite simply, many supporters of Paniagua and
other minor centrist canidates seem to have shifted their
support to Flores as they saw her as the only candidate in a
position to halt Humala. With Humala starting to fall in the
polls, however, these voters could well move back to
Paniagua, to a minor candidate, or to the ranks of the
undecided. The candidate who now seems poised to make a move
is Martha Chavez, who doubled her poll numbers and could soon
overtake Paniagua, should the latter continue his steady
descent. With Alberto Fujimori definitively disqualified
from running, his followers appear to be getting their act
together and uniting behind Chavez. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE