REGIONAL ELECTIONS: FRAGMENTED FIELD FAVORS LOCAL

UNCLAS LIMA 003693 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV INR PE SUBJECT: REGIONAL ELECTIONS: FRAGMENTED FIELD FAVORS LOCAL CANDIDATES AND APRA REF: A. LIMA 3579 ¶B. LIMA 2927 Sensitive but Unclassified. Please handle accordingly. Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) A fragmented field of multiple contenders -- an average of nine candidates for each regional presidency -- favors both independent local candidates and the established APRA party in Peru's upcoming regional and municipal elections. Schisms and other problems in the Ollanta Humala camp (refs) have diminished the prospect of a Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) sweep in the south and the sierra. (The PNP has not presented a candidate in Cuzco, where Humala took 73 percent in June.) The APRA Government's targeted programs and promises to distribute more authority and resources to the regions are likely to help APRA candidates. Such electoral fragmentation could undermine long-term governability even as it leaves Humala weakened and APRA alone as a party with nation-wide reach. End Summary. Plethora of Weak Parties -------------- ¶2. (U) Peruvian voters will elect regional presidents, mayors, and city council members ("regidores") on November ¶19. There is an average of nine candidates for each of the 25 regional presidencies, and 16 regions have more than nine candidates -- with Huancavelica topping the list at 13. The municipal races have similarly large numbers of candidates. (Note: The numbers may drop if candidates are ruled ineligible by the National Elections Board (JNE). End Note.) ¶3. (U) While national parties represent two-thirds of the candidates, they have a weak penetration in the provinces. Only four are competing in 12 or more regional campaigns: APRA and Ollanta Humala's Nationalist Party (PNP) in 23 regions; Humala's former ally the Union por el Peru (UPP) in 19; and the Si Cumple (Fujimorista) party in 16. (Note: The Fujimoristas have reclaimed the popular party name of "Si Cumple" (He Delivers) from former President Fujimori's past campaigns. End Note.) The Unidad Nacional alliance (under which Lourdes Flores ran for president) is only running candidates in 9 regions and forming alliances in 3 others, underscoring the weakness of national parties. ¶4. (U) This leaves a vacuum which local candidates representing regional groupings focused on regional issues are filling. The proliferation of parties, local organizations and candidates has fragmented the political landscape. If past patterns hold, these local candidates will get significant support, but few if any will gain a majority. For example, in 2002, two-thirds of the winning candidates for regional president scored less than 30 percent of the vote. At that time, the fragmentation helped APRA secure 12 (of 25) regional presidencies. Even if APRA does less well this time, it should still emerge as the only party with significant nation-wide representation. ¶5. (SBU) The probable scenario of regional presidencies elected without majority backing could pose governability problems. This challenge could be further complicated by the election of many unaligned regional movements that win regional presidencies. The APRA government would be hard-pressed to generate a coherent global plan to deal with this challenge, but rather find itself addressing an explosion of narrow regional and local demands on myriad fronts. Humala's Party Vulnerable -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Despite Humala's dominance in the sierras and the south in Peru's presidential race, the PNP is vulnerable in these same areas. (Note: In the presidential run-off Humala won the popular vote in 15 regions, in 10 of those with more than 60 percent. End Note.) Humala's candidates will split some of the vote with those of his former UPP party, which has registered a separate list of candidates for the local and regional elections. In addition, his own party (PNP) is divided in Congress, Humala faces a human rights trial that limits his travel, and he has little to offer his party's candidates by way of material inducements or support. Consequently, many regional and local candidates that rallied behind Humala in the presidential elections are going on their own for the November elections (Ref B). Cuzco presents the most graphic example of Humala's political ineffectiveness. Although he won 73 percent of the vote in June, infighting has resulted in his PNP party failing even to register a candidate this time around. Lima elections -------------- ¶7. (U) In spite of his high popularity, Lima mayor Luis Castaneda of the Unidad Nacional alliance faces a similar situation, i.e., 10 competitors representing a range of groups. And most observers acknowledge that it is Castaneda's personal appeal rather than UN party affiliation that explain his popular support. Humberto Lay, the (embattled) evangelical leader of the Restauracion Nacional party currently places a distant second in polls. Other candidates are Benedicto Jimenez of APRA, a retired colonel and former chief of the anti-terrorism police, and Gino Costa of the Somos Peru party, a former Minister of Interior. Humala's former Vice Presidential candidate, Gonzalo Garcia Nunez, is running on the PNP ticket. Government Largesse to Regions -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The APRA Government's targeted programs (Sierra Exportadora) and promises to distribute more authority and resources from Lima (decentralize) are likely to help APRA candidates. While the Garcia Administration has made decentralization and targeted assistance programs a first-tier priority, some observers believe this also has a clear political dimension, and could be used to encourage favor-seeking voters to choose APRA candidates who are seen as better able to leverage central government resources for the benefit of their regions or localities. Comment: Proliferation Breeds Ingovernability -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The proliferation of parties, local organizations and candidates fragments the political landscape, and will make it difficult for an elected leader to obtain a clear mandate. This could undermine long-term governability even as it leaves Humala weakened and APRA alone as the party with nation-wide reach. At the moment, the scenario suggests a heightening of 2002 trends, when local candidates and APRA dominated, but most victors won without an absolute majority. STRUBLE