CABINET VOTE COULD SPLIT HUMALA COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 003349

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM PE
SUBJECT: CABINET VOTE COULD SPLIT HUMALA COALITION


Classified By: A/POL David C. Brooks, for Reasons 1.4 (c,d)


1. (C) Summary: Supporters of anti-system presidential
candidate Ollanta Humala are divided over whether to endorse
President Garcia's new cabinet on Thursday, August 24.
Humala has said his party would vote against the Garcia
Cabinet, but UPP congressional representatives including
spokesman Alvaro Gutierrez have said they had not yet decided
how to vote. The appearance of an early rift illustrates how
Humala's authoritarian, top-down leadership style may not
work in the post-electoral environment. End Summary.


2. (U) The Union por el Peru (UPP) and Peruvian Nationalist
Party (PNP) coalition that supported former presidential
candidate Ollanta Humala during Peru's April and June
elections is divided over whether to endorse President
Garcia's new cabinet on Thursday, August 24. Humala
spokesman Carlos Tapia indicated that PNP members would vote
against the Garcia cabinet and press reports have said that
Humala has so instructed PNP Congress representatives. In
contrast, PNP Congressman Alvaro Gutierrez and UPP Congress
members are taking a wait and see attitude, rather that
peremporily rejecting the Garcia Cabinet. Gutierrez told
the Ambassador on 8/21 that voting against Garcia's cabinet
appointments without even considering their merits would be
irresponsible.


3. (U) The appearance of an early rift points to deeper
divisions within Humala's fractious congressional coalition.
Gutierrez distanced himself from Humala two weeks ago,
appearing with President Garcia on August 11 to endorse an
APRA proposal to require that 20% of all city council
representatives be reserved for persons 29 or younger.
Later, as new revelations broke about Humala's possible
involvement in human rights violations in the early 90s,
Gutierrez publicly declared that he would not "put his hand
in the fire" for the former candidate.


4. (U) Gutierrez' actions sparked criticism from Humala's
personal spokesman, Carlos Tapia, who announced that
Gutierrez had been relieved of his responsibilities last
week. UPP President Aldo Estrada contradicted this, telling
the press August 19 that Gutierrez would remain UPP-PNP
spokesperson until the entire group took a decision on the
matter. Estrada also indicated that some UPP-PNP coalition
representatives might endorse the Garcia cabinet. On the eve
of the congressional vote of confidence, both the UPP and the
PNP are internally divided. PNP members, with the likely
exception of Gutierrez, will probably vote against the
cabinet. UPP members are free to vote their own conscience,
and will likely endorse President Garcia's choice of
ministers.

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Comment:
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5. (C) This early friction underscores deeper fissures in
Humala's movement and highlights his likely inability to
contain them. While Humala was able personally to "impose
order" on his coalition during the campaign, the heavy-handed
approach appears not to be working in the post-election
environment. In this sense, Humala's lack of political and
congressional experience is likely to undermine his ability
to operate effectively as an opposition leader. In addition,
we suspect that pro-Humala Congress representatives like
Gutierrez do not want to burn their bridges with the Garcia
administration, since it is NOW Garcia, and not Humala, who
can offer them concrete benefits for the regions they
represent.
STRUBLE