FIRST FISSURES IN THE HUMALISTA MOVEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002428 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PE SUBJECT: FIRST FISSURES IN THE HUMALISTA MOVEMENT Classified By: Polcouns Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Ollanta Humala's Second Vice President candidate on the Union por el Peru (UPP) ticket, Carlos Torres Caro, announced on 6/12 that he and three other congressmen-elect were breaking with Humala. Torres Caro characterized Humala as authoritarian and anti-democratic, and charged that he was allying himself with the far-left and planning to destabilize the government. Humala responded by blasting his former VP as a traitor, excommunicating him from the nationalist movement, and inviting the three other defectors to return to the fold (one accepted the offer). He then sought to undercut Torres Caro's allegations by adopting a new gentler posture vis-a-vis the new administration: accepting Garcia's offer to meet, promising a "constructive opposition," and denying having held talks with the far-left Patria Roja party. While a lessening of Humala's influence in Congress is to be welcomed, it remains to be seen what type of horse-trading might have been involved in encouraging the defectors to jump ship. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Torres Caro, accompanied by three other UPP legislators-elect (Isaac Mekler, Gustavo Espinoza and Rocio Gonzalez) held a press conference on 6/12 to announce that the four were breaking with Humala and claimed that more future UPP congressmen would follow their lead. He declared that the UPP presidential candidate had betrayed his original "nationalist" project with the post-election announcement that the Humalistas would form a Peruvian Nationalistic Democratic Front (FNDP) with elements of the far-left, such as the Peruvian Communist Party - Patria Roja, that planned to launch a "policy of radical opposition affecting governability." Torres Caro singled out the "excessive" influence of leftists in Humala's organization, including First Vice President candidate Gonzalo Garcia and Garcia's long-time friend, and now official Humala spokesperson, Carlos Tapia. He also criticized Humala's "authoritarian" and "anti-democratic" nature, pointing out that the latter had proposed the FNDP without consulting with other UPP officials. ¶3. (U) Ollanta Humala was in Bolivia when Torres Caro announced his separation from the movement, but upon returning on 6/13 blasted his former running mate, damning him as a traitor who had put himself permanently "outside the nationalist project." Humala, however, left the door open for the three congressmen-elect accompanying Torres Caro to return to the fold. Torres Caro fired back, accusing the Humalistas of threatening the members of UPP's future legislative bloc to keep them from joining Torres Caro's movement. ¶4. (U) Later that day Humala signalled that he had adopted a new gentler posture vis-a-vis the incoming administration of APRA party leader Alan Garcia: accepting Garcia's offer to meet together; promising a "constructive opposition" that would work towards lowering the cost of petroleum products, revise the Economic chapter of the 1993 Constitution, and pass legislation to prevent legislators from leaving the parties that elected them to Congress; and denying having held talks with Patria Roja. That evening he met with the UPP leadership and most of that party's legislative bloc, announcing afterwards that the remaining 41 congressmen-elect would remain loyal to his movement. That number went up to 42 on 6/15 when Isaac Mekler announced that he was rejoining the UPP bloc, explaining that Humala's latest comments meant that the feared alliance with the far left was "off the agenda." ¶5. (C) COMMENT: It is not surprising that the UPP congressional bloc has begun to shed members following Humala's defeat, given the hurried manner in which the legislative slate was assembled from myriad political forces and opportunists. We have heard from several sources that APRA representatives have been lobbying UPP legislators-elect to leave the Humalista movement, and APRA co-Secretary General Jorge del Castillo as much as admitted he was engaged in this activity during a 6/6 meeting with the Ambassador. The week before Torres Caro's announcement, UPP President (and congressman-elect) Aldo Estrada had warned he might leave the movement out of pique over Humala's failure to consult on the FNDP formation, but he retracted his threat after consultations with Humala and other UPP officials. While a lessening of the Humalistas' influence in Congress is to be welcomed, it remains to be seen what type of horse-trading was involved in encouraging the defectors to jump ship. END COMMENT. STRUBLE