ALAN GARCIA ELECTED PERU'S NEXT PRESIDENT

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SUBJECT: ALAN GARCIA ELECTED PERU'S NEXT PRESIDENT

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1. (U) With 91 percent of the voting tables counted as of
09:00 on 6/5, APRA presidential candidate Alan Garcia has a
virtually insurmountable 53.5-46.5 percent lead over Union
por el Peru's (UPP) Ollanta Humala. Garcia's advantage in
votes is 859,507 (6,518-446 to 5,558,939). Humala can be
expected to narrow Garcia's lead somewhat, perhaps to around
six percentage points, as most of the votes to be counted are
in pro-Humala areas, but the APRA candidate appears set as
President-elect.


2. (U) Garcia's victory was based on his taking Lima and
the coastal region from Ica north to Tumbes; i.e., the areas
that have taken advantage of Peru's export-led growth and
have the most direct ties with the world economy. Humala, on
the other hand, took the southern coast, the Altiplano (with
the exception of the mining-export region of Pasco) and the
Amazonian jungle (with the possible exception of Ucayali),
all of which are regions that have felt themselves ignored by
the Toledo Government and excluded from the country's
economic growth. Humala scored highest in the most depressed
regions: Ayacucho (82 percent),Huancavelica (77 percent),
Apurimac (73 percent),and Cusco (71 percent).


3. (U) Garcia made a conciliatory victory speech before a
roaring crowd in front of APRA party headquarters in downtown
Lima the evening of 6/4. The President-elect recognized that
his victory was due to votes "borrowed" from other democratic
parties; vowed to preside over an inclusive government that
welcomed other political forces and technocrats; noted the
need to address promptly the demands of marginalized regions
in the southern Altiplano that voted for his opponent;
promised to avoid the errors of his 1985-90 administration;
and warned "opportunists" that an APRA party card would
not/not be a ticket to obtaining a government job.


4. (U) Humala has not explicitly conceded, insisting that
he will wait until all votes are counted before making a
final pronouncement on the election results. In a speech to
his supporters the evening of 6/4, the UPP standard-bearer
stated that his candidacy had achieved a "social and
political victory," raised the nationalist banner, won a
plurality in Congress, changed the campaign's discourse,
focused attention on Peru's marginalized majority, and
triumphed in a majority of the regions (the latest figures
show Humala ahead in 15 of Peru's 25 regions). No matter who
won the popular vote, Humala declared, the following day
would witness the start of the country's "great
transformation," and he called on his followers, leftist
parties, regional movements, social organizations, and
domestic business interests to join with him in creating a
"Nationalist Front."


5. (SBU) COMMENT: The election results show a clear
fracturing of the vote between those areas that benefit from
international commerce and those that have thus far been
excluded from meaningful contact with the global economy.
With regional/municipal elections coming up in November,
Garcia and his fellow APRA leaders will need to begin
addressing the demands from marginalized areas now, rather
than wait until they take office on 7/28. Failure to do so
would run the risk of ceding control to the Humalistas of 60
percent of the regional authorities. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE