ALAN GARCIA ELECTED PERU'S NEXT PRESIDENT

UNCLAS LIMA 002222 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PE SUBJECT: ALAN GARCIA ELECTED PERU'S NEXT PRESIDENT Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (U) With 91 percent of the voting tables counted as of 09:00 on 6/5, APRA presidential candidate Alan Garcia has a virtually insurmountable 53.5-46.5 percent lead over Union por el Peru's (UPP) Ollanta Humala. Garcia's advantage in votes is 859,507 (6,518-446 to 5,558,939). Humala can be expected to narrow Garcia's lead somewhat, perhaps to around six percentage points, as most of the votes to be counted are in pro-Humala areas, but the APRA candidate appears set as President-elect. ¶2. (U) Garcia's victory was based on his taking Lima and the coastal region from Ica north to Tumbes; i.e., the areas that have taken advantage of Peru's export-led growth and have the most direct ties with the world economy. Humala, on the other hand, took the southern coast, the Altiplano (with the exception of the mining-export region of Pasco) and the Amazonian jungle (with the possible exception of Ucayali), all of which are regions that have felt themselves ignored by the Toledo Government and excluded from the country's economic growth. Humala scored highest in the most depressed regions: Ayacucho (82 percent),Huancavelica (77 percent), Apurimac (73 percent),and Cusco (71 percent). ¶3. (U) Garcia made a conciliatory victory speech before a roaring crowd in front of APRA party headquarters in downtown Lima the evening of 6/4. The President-elect recognized that his victory was due to votes "borrowed" from other democratic parties; vowed to preside over an inclusive government that welcomed other political forces and technocrats; noted the need to address promptly the demands of marginalized regions in the southern Altiplano that voted for his opponent; promised to avoid the errors of his 1985-90 administration; and warned "opportunists" that an APRA party card would not/not be a ticket to obtaining a government job. ¶4. (U) Humala has not explicitly conceded, insisting that he will wait until all votes are counted before making a final pronouncement on the election results. In a speech to his supporters the evening of 6/4, the UPP standard-bearer stated that his candidacy had achieved a "social and political victory," raised the nationalist banner, won a plurality in Congress, changed the campaign's discourse, focused attention on Peru's marginalized majority, and triumphed in a majority of the regions (the latest figures show Humala ahead in 15 of Peru's 25 regions). No matter who won the popular vote, Humala declared, the following day would witness the start of the country's "great transformation," and he called on his followers, leftist parties, regional movements, social organizations, and domestic business interests to join with him in creating a "Nationalist Front." ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: The election results show a clear fracturing of the vote between those areas that benefit from international commerce and those that have thus far been excluded from meaningful contact with the global economy. With regional/municipal elections coming up in November, Garcia and his fellow APRA leaders will need to begin addressing the demands from marginalized areas now, rather than wait until they take office on 7/28. Failure to do so would run the risk of ceding control to the Humalistas of 60 percent of the regional authorities. END COMMENT. STRUBLE