LATEST (PRE-DEBATE) POLLS SHOW GARCIA MAINTAINING

UNCLAS LIMA 002096 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PE SUBJECT: LATEST (PRE-DEBATE) POLLS SHOW GARCIA MAINTAINING HIS LEAD OVER HUMALA REF: LIMA 2039 Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The most recent (albeit pre-presidential debate) nationwide polls by the Apoyo and DATUM organizations continue to show APRA candidate Alan Garcia holding a 12-14 point lead over Union por el Peru's (UPP) Ollanta Humala. The polls differ on trends, however, with Apoyo reporting Humala slightly closing the gap between the two, while DATUM found that Garcia's vote totals are increasing at Humala's expense. While most voters do not/not appear to be enthusiastic about either candidate, Apoyo concluded that many more would never vote for Humala (47 percent) than for Garcia (six percent). The last published polls will be issued on 5/28, and it will be enlightening to see the extent to which voters' attitudes have been affected by the 5/21 debate and subsequent campaigning. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) The Apoyo poll was conducted 5/17-19 in 175 districts representing 81 percent of the population. It found the following: -- Only 74 percent of those polled cast "valid votes," while 16 percent cast blank/null ballots and 10 percent were undecided/did not respond. -- Out of the total number of those polled, Garcia received 41 percent and Humala 33 percent of the votes. -- In terms of "valid votes" (those that will be counted by the electoral authorities),Garcia received 56 percent and Humala 44 percent. -- Garcia's total vote numbers have fallen steadily since Apoyo's 5/4 poll, when he received 44 percent, and 5/11 when he received 43 percent, while his "valid vote" totals have slipped less, from 57 percent on 5/4 to 56 percent on 5/11 and in the latest poll. -- Humala's total vote numbers have also slipped (from 34 percent on 5/4 and 5/11 to 33 percent now),but by less than Garcia's, while his "valid vote" total has risen from 43 percent on 5/4, to 44 percent in the two latest surveys. -- Geographically, Garcia continues to score over 60 percent in Lima and on the northern coast, while winning in all other areas except Arequipa/southern coast (a tie),and the southern Altiplano and jungle regions, where Humala scored 63 percent and 58 percent, respectively. -- With respect to economic classes, Garcia comes out on top in the A-D sectors (over 70 percent in the A-B groups, and �0A;over 50 percent in the C-D classes),with Humala taking only the poorest E sector (55-45 percent). -- Garcia also was the leader amongst both sexes, although his support was strongest amongst females (61-39 percent) than males (51-49 percent). -- As for age groups, Garcia held his widet lead among 18-24 years olds (62-38 percent),with modest leads among 25-39 year-olds (54-46 percent) and 40-70 year-olds (55-45 percent). -- When asked who they thought would win the election, 63 percent of respondents said Garcia while only 26 percent sided with Humala. -- When asked if they would "definitely" vote for their preferred candidate, 39 percent said they would do so for Garcia, while 31 percent had the same answer regarding Humala. -- When asked which candidate they would "definitely not vote for," only six percent said Garcia, while 47 percent said Humala. ¶3. (U) The DATUM poll carried out 5/18-19 in areas representing 79.9 percent of the voting population, came up with the following results: -- 82 percent of respondents cast "valid votes," with the other 18 percent submitting blank or spoiled ballots. -- Garcia won the "valid vote" contest by 57-43 percent. -- Garcia's "valid vote" totals have been increasing since 4/19-21, when they totaled 54 percent, and 4/29-5/1 when they stood at 56 percent. -- Humala's "valid vote" totals have been falling during the same period, from 46 percent in the April poll to 44 percent in the April-May survey. ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: Apoyo and DATUM's polling has found Garcia to hold a 12-14 point lead over Humala since the two were confirmed as second-round finalists. Neither poll has shown significant shifts in support for either candidate, though the two differ on the slight trends they have detected, with Apoyo detecting a slight shift to Humala (due to his total support falling by less than Garcia's),while DATUM has seen Garcia inching up against his opponent. Perhaps the most telling statistic is Apoyo's finding that Garcia's absolute negatives have fallen to six percent (it was close to 50 percent a year ago),while 47 percent state that they "definitely will not vote" for Humala. This indicates that the UPP candidate will have a difficult task in convincing voters to switch their votes to him during the last two weeks of the campaign. The final published polls will be released on 5/28 (the Organic Law of Elections prohibits the domestic publication of polls during the week before election day) and will provide a snapshot as to how the voting public reacted to the 5/21 debate as the campaign heads into the home stretch. END COMMENT. STRUBLE