WHA PDAS SHAPIRO MEETS FLORES ADVISOR XAVIER BARRON

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002073

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM PE
SUBJECT: WHA PDAS SHAPIRO MEETS FLORES ADVISOR XAVIER BARRON

REF: 05 LIMA 658

Classified By: Political Officer David C. Brooks for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. Summary: (C) Parliamentary spokesman for Unidad Nacional
(U.N.) Xavier Barron, in a meeting with WHA PDAS Charles
Shapiro on 5/17, predicted that Alan Garcia would win Peru's
presidency, though not by margins as large as the pollsQQLjD2QTQ)He was confident that APRA would reach out to U.N.
to form a majority in Congress. He disagreed with Flores'
post-election statements that had cast doubt on the integrity
of the election. Barron predicted that Humala's
congressional bloc would fragment after his defeat, and said
that Humala's wife, Nadine, could challenge Lima Mayor (and
U.N. member) Luis Casteneda in the November municipal
elections. End Summary.


2. (C) U.N Parliamentary Spokesman Xavier Barron stated that
Alan Garcia "should win the presidency," though not by the
large margins predicted in recent polls, in a 5/17 meeting
with WHA PDAS Charles Shapiro. The final numbers would
narrow, he explained, because of the reservoir of votes
Humala enjoys high up in the sierras. The question Barron
asked, but could not answer, was how Humala's message had
penetrated so quickly into these highland areas? (Comment:
For the last four years Ollanta Humala's brother, Antauro,
has promoted Ollanta's presidential candidacy in the
highlands -- Reftel. Barron's question speaks to Unidad
Nacional's Lima-focused orientation. End Comment.)


3. (C) Barron said Lourdes Flores Nano remains bitter,
convinced that she was robbed of victory, a conclusion with
which he did not agree. From now on, he predicted, Flors
would lead U.N. "as a moral reference and not as a
candidate." If she gives the nod to a post-election
coalition with APRA, it will happen. Barron believed Alan
Garcia's APRA would reach out to UN and to Valentin
Paniagua's Frente del Centro to form a working majority in
Congress, perhaps offering the Prime Minister's job to U.N.
member Antero Flores Araoz. He added that Lourdes Flores
Nano had reacted negatively to an APRA feeler about making
Flores Araoz prime minister, but the inquiry came when she
was still feeling bitter about her loss. Barron minimized the
post-election defection of prominent U.N. coalition member
Rafael Rey. He predicted that two congressmen from Rey's
party will stick with U.N. in the Congress.


4. (C) Barron worried that, facing a likely loss at the
polls, Humala would cry fraud, charging that President Toledo
and Alan Garcia had colluded against him. Humala might then
call for violent protests by his followers. If Humala loses,
Barron said that his congressional bloc would split up, with
the 16 Congressmen from the original Union por el Peru (UPP)
party eventually voting with APRA on many issues. Barron
noted that Humala and his followers were aiming for regional
and local elections in November, where they could be expected
to do well in the south and in the sierras. He said that
Nadine Humala, the candidate's spouse, was being groomed to
challenge Luis Casteneda for Mayor of Lima.
STRUBLE