WHA PDAS SHAPIRO MEETS FLORES ADVISOR XAVIER BARRON

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002073 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM PE SUBJECT: WHA PDAS SHAPIRO MEETS FLORES ADVISOR XAVIER BARRON REF: 05 LIMA 658 Classified By: Political Officer David C. Brooks for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. Summary: (C) Parliamentary spokesman for Unidad Nacional (U.N.) Xavier Barron, in a meeting with WHA PDAS Charles Shapiro on 5/17, predicted that Alan Garcia would win Peru's presidency, though not by margins as large as the pollsQQLjD2QTQ)He was confident that APRA would reach out to U.N. to form a majority in Congress. He disagreed with Flores' post-election statements that had cast doubt on the integrity of the election. Barron predicted that Humala's congressional bloc would fragment after his defeat, and said that Humala's wife, Nadine, could challenge Lima Mayor (and U.N. member) Luis Casteneda in the November municipal elections. End Summary. ¶2. (C) U.N Parliamentary Spokesman Xavier Barron stated that Alan Garcia "should win the presidency," though not by the large margins predicted in recent polls, in a 5/17 meeting with WHA PDAS Charles Shapiro. The final numbers would narrow, he explained, because of the reservoir of votes Humala enjoys high up in the sierras. The question Barron asked, but could not answer, was how Humala's message had penetrated so quickly into these highland areas? (Comment: For the last four years Ollanta Humala's brother, Antauro, has promoted Ollanta's presidential candidacy in the highlands -- Reftel. Barron's question speaks to Unidad Nacional's Lima-focused orientation. End Comment.) ¶3. (C) Barron said Lourdes Flores Nano remains bitter, convinced that she was robbed of victory, a conclusion with which he did not agree. From now on, he predicted, Flors would lead U.N. "as a moral reference and not as a candidate." If she gives the nod to a post-election coalition with APRA, it will happen. Barron believed Alan Garcia's APRA would reach out to UN and to Valentin Paniagua's Frente del Centro to form a working majority in Congress, perhaps offering the Prime Minister's job to U.N. member Antero Flores Araoz. He added that Lourdes Flores Nano had reacted negatively to an APRA feeler about making Flores Araoz prime minister, but the inquiry came when she was still feeling bitter about her loss. Barron minimized the post-election defection of prominent U.N. coalition member Rafael Rey. He predicted that two congressmen from Rey's party will stick with U.N. in the Congress. ¶4. (C) Barron worried that, facing a likely loss at the polls, Humala would cry fraud, charging that President Toledo and Alan Garcia had colluded against him. Humala might then call for violent protests by his followers. If Humala loses, Barron said that his congressional bloc would split up, with the 16 Congressmen from the original Union por el Peru (UPP) party eventually voting with APRA on many issues. Barron noted that Humala and his followers were aiming for regional and local elections in November, where they could be expected to do well in the south and in the sierras. He said that Nadine Humala, the candidate's spouse, was being groomed to challenge Luis Casteneda for Mayor of Lima. STRUBLE