WHA PDAS SHAPIRO MEETS WITH COMMENTATORS/MEDIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002070 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM PE SUBJECT: WHA PDAS SHAPIRO MEETS WITH COMMENTATORS/MEDIA PERSONALITIES Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies; Reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. Summary: (C) Visiting WHA PDAS Shapiro met with Peruvian news media figures in an off-the-record encounter at the Ambassador's Residence on 5/16. Participants described the appeal that Union Por el Peru (UPP) candidate Ollanta Humala's plainspoken authoritarian style had for rural inhabitants and how Lourdes Flores' indecisiveness and propensity to listen to bad advice had doomed her campaign. They also noted the continued tendency for fragmentation in Peruvian politics with new divisions appearing on the right in the wake of Flores' defeat, and the profound splits in Humala's base areas in the sierras and the south. Public disillusionment with politicians could be a plus, they noted, since this would ensure that any government resulting from the present election would be subject to keen oversight. End Summary. ¶2. (C) PDAS Shapiro met with Peruvian news media figures in an off-the-record encounter at the Ambassador's Residence on 5/16. Those in attendance were: sociologist and commentator Julio Cotler, "La Republica" publisher Gustavo Mohme, "El Comercio" Director Alejandro Miro Quesada, RPP Radio News Director Raul Vargas, and the host of the "Free Press" TV news show Rosa Maria Palacios. ¶3. (C) The participants respected the appeal of Ollanta Humala's presidential candidacy. Though Humala frightens journalists and intellectuals like themselves, they recognized that he possesses a clear appeal for the large percentage of Peruvians who live in poverty and have little to lose. As Raul Vargas put it, "Who is scared of Humala? Fewer people than you may think." ¶4. (C) Sociologist Cotler spoke directly to Humala's drawing power. Humala, he said, speaks to his audiences in direct, military fashion, "just like an army officer addressing villagers in the emergency zones (during the war against Sendero Luminoso)." Cotler argued that this "common sense" discourse of the tough guy/order-bringer resonated with many Peruvians and was rooted in events that pre-date the conflicts of the 1980s and 90s. Cotler in particular cited Peru's educational system, which requires primary school students to take dictation from teachers, as one key institution that lays the groundwork for authoritarianism among rural folk. ¶5. (C) Just as the participants noted Humala's strengths as a candidate, they also noted Lourdes Flores' weak points. In a post-mortem on her second failed presidential bid, all agreed that Lourdes Flores "lacked leadership." They noted that she had a poor campaign, bad advisors, and a weak running mate in Arturo Woodman, a banker who was all-too-easily tagged by Flores' opponents as a representative of the rich. Rosa Maria Palacios specifically brought up an incident during the campaign, which she believed emblematic of Flores inability to make even simple decisions. ¶6. (C) In discussing the post-election troubles of Flores' Unidad Nacional alliance, including one party's abandonment, Miro Quesada offered the sad diagnosis that now "the Peruvian Right is becoming just as fragmented as the Peruvian Left." This dual fragmentation will continue, they said, as Humala's own Congressional group fractures after his likely electoral loss. Furthermore, most of the rural regions that are helping Humala -- areas high in the sierras and in the south -- are themselves deeply split, governed by provincial leaders or local "caciques." These are not factors that bode well, he observed, for a coherent national politics following the election. ¶7. (C) In closing, Julio Cotler offered the idea that the disillusionment and cynicism one finds in many voters -- dismayed with the seemingly poor choice between Alan Garcia and Ollanta Humala -- is perhaps a good thing. Cotler offered that, "We need less glorious, epic demands, and more such skepticism." Vargas added that this skeptical attitude guaranteed that the next Peruvian government would be subject to keen oversight, which would be positive. STRUBLE