HUMALA'S IMAGE CONSULTANT ON DEBATE, CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002066 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PE SUBJECT: HUMALA'S IMAGE CONSULTANT ON DEBATE, CAMPAIGN STRATEGY FOR THE STRETCH RUN REF: A. LIMA 2039 ¶B. LIMA 2036 ¶C. LIMA 1974 ¶D. LIMA 1851 Classified By: Polcouns Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Alejandro Pucci, recently re-appointed image consultant for Union por el Peru (UPP) presidential candidate Ollanta Humala, told Polcouns 5/24 that: -- The Humalistas were delighted with their candidate's performance during the debate, as he held his own against the vastly more experienced Alan Garcia; -- Humala's message during the debate and for the remainder of the campaign is aimed at the poorest D and E economic sectors; -- The published poll results are skewed to favor Garcia, as the difference between the candidates is at most six percent; -- This means Humala can win if he manages to swing around more than three percent of those currently planning to vote for the APRA candidate, and the UPP campaign has several "surprises" in store; -- Humala's family continues to be his worst enemy; and -- Humala's relationship with his fbQQt'S6Ii}+QSQBQday or less). The Humala camp recognizes that appeals to the A-C sectors might win votes from those portions of the population, but would also alienate the D-E sectors and coQ/QQowever, ran into a crowd of Garcia supporters. Consequently, Humala, accompanied by his wife Nadine and Pucci, chose to walk to the Archeological Museum. While en route, Humala stopped at a shop to buy some water, and when he emerged he was engulfed by some 200 journalists and cameramen. It then took 15-20 minutes for Humala to advance through the media to the debate location even with a police escort. -- In mid-January, before Humala was beset by human rights allegations and his parents' disruptive activities, the UPP candidate's support was as high as 46 percent of eligible voters in privately commissioned polls, before falling to 30 percent on election day. If he can recapture the 16 percent he lost, it should be enough to defeat Garcia. -- The published polls, which have Garcia ahead by 12-14 percent are being manipulated to favor the APRA candidate. The difference between the two is really only about six percent. That means a swing of three percent-plus from Garcia to Humala will result in the latter's victory. -- The Humala camp is preparing several "surprises" between now and election day. APRA, of course, can be expected to have its own "surprises" in store, which the Humalistas are prepared to quickly respond to, just as they promptly rebutted the allegations by imprisoned former national security advisor Vladimiro Montesinos that Humala's October 2000 uprising was a smokescreen designed to facilitate Montesinos' escape (Ref B). -- Humala's chief enemy continues to be his own family. His father Isaac's appearance at a print shop found to be creating anti-Garcia propaganda (Ref C) definitely hurt the campaign. Humala's relationship with his parents and brothers is one of love-hate, while Nadine's relationship with her in-laws is definitely hate-hate. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: We share Pucci's assessment that the presidential race is closer than the 12-14 percent posited by the most recent Apoyo and DATUM polls (Septel) and that Garcia's lead is actually in single digits. The debate did not appear to favor either candidate, with Garcia's appeals aimed at the A-C sectors, while Humala's message went out to the D-E groups. With both candidates planning full campaign schedules over the final two weeks, the race likely will come down to whether Humala can indeed recapture lost ground in the poorest sectors while making some inroads in the working class C sector, while Garcia will need to maintain his grip on a sizable chunk of the D-E sectors while not alienating the A-C voters. END COMMENT. STRUBLE