GARCIA MAINTAINS COMFORTABLE LEAD OVER HUMALA IN

UNCLAS LIMA 001887

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PE
SUBJECT: GARCIA MAINTAINS COMFORTABLE LEAD OVER HUMALA IN
APOYO POLL

REF: A. LIMA 1852


B. LIMA 1815

C. LIMA 1807

D. LIMA 1799

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SUMMARY
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1. SUMMARY: APRA party presidential candidate Alan Garcia
maintained his double-digit lead over Union por el Peru's
Ollanta Humala in the latest Apoyo consultancy poll,
published 5/14. One significant finding is that the strong
advantage Unidad Nacional candidate Lourdes Flores had among
women has transferred to Garcia. Geographically, the APRA
candidate was ahead in Lima and all areas of the country save
the southern Altiplano and the Amazonian jungle, as well as
in all economic sectors save the poorest "E" group. The
Apoyo poll echoed a recent survey by DATUM that showed
Peruvians consider the U.S. one of their country's best
friends. END SUMMARY.

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THE POLL RESULTS
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2. The Apoyo poll, taken 5/10-12 in 77 provinces around the
country (representative of 81 percent of the electorate)
found that Garcia would defeat Humala by 56-44 percent
amongst those casting valid ballots (excluding the 15 percent
who said they would vote in blank and the eight percent who
did not name a preference). Garcia's margin was down two
points from last week's Apoyo poll (which had the APRA
candidate ahead 57-43 percent - Ref D),but this difference
is statistically neglible as it falls well within the poll's
claimed 2.2 margin of error.


3. Regionally, Garcia was strongest in Lima, the northern
coast and the northern sierra, with over 60 percent support
in each. Humala led only in the southern Altiplano and in
the Amazonian jungle regions. Garcia led in all economic
classes except the poorest "E" sector, with wide margins in
the "A" (90-10),"B" (72-28) and "C" (60-40) sectors, and a
54-46 percent spread in the "D" sector. Humala's lead in the
"E" sector was 56-44 percent, the reverse of Garcia's
national advantage. Garcia also was ahead with both sexes,
although his support is much stronger amongst women (61-39
percent) than men (52-48 percent). Amongst the different age
groups, Garcia's lead ranged between 55 percent (over 40's
who remember his first presidency) and 58 percent (the 18-24
year-old sector).


4. COMMENT: One of the Apoyo poll's results, however,
raises questions as to its overall accuracy. The poll has
Garcia ahead in Arequipa and the southern coast (52-48
percent),even though Humala carried this area by a hefty
margin (with 48 percent support in Arequipa alone) in the
first round. This could be an anomoly, or it could reflect
the fact that Apoyo conducts its surveys primarily in urban
or suburban areas, and, therefore, that its results do
not/not represent the unconsulted 19 percent of the
population living in isolated rural areas. Consequently,
this segment of the population could well constitute a
"hidden" vote for Humala. If this is the case, Garcia's
actual margin over Humala would be less than reported by
Apoyo, likely falling to single digits. END COMMENT.

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VIEWS OF THE U.S. AND THE FTA
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5. When asked which country they considered to be Peru's
best friend, respondents picked Brazil first (21 percent) and
the U.S. second. When asked with which country Peru should
have increased economic relations, the U.S. came out on top
(41 percent),with Brazil second (15 percent). Furthermore,
68 percent of respondents said that they would emigrate if
they could, with most (32 percent) saying they would head for
the U.S. These favorable views of the U.S. echo the results
of last week's DATUM poll, although the latter found an even
greater favorable rating for Uncle Sam (Ref A).
STRUBLE