GARCIA MAINTAINS COMFORTABLE LEAD OVER HUMALA IN

UNCLAS LIMA 001887 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PE SUBJECT: GARCIA MAINTAINS COMFORTABLE LEAD OVER HUMALA IN APOYO POLL REF: A. LIMA 1852 ¶B. LIMA 1815 ¶C. LIMA 1807 ¶D. LIMA 1799 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. SUMMARY: APRA party presidential candidate Alan Garcia maintained his double-digit lead over Union por el Peru's Ollanta Humala in the latest Apoyo consultancy poll, published 5/14. One significant finding is that the strong advantage Unidad Nacional candidate Lourdes Flores had among women has transferred to Garcia. Geographically, the APRA candidate was ahead in Lima and all areas of the country save the southern Altiplano and the Amazonian jungle, as well as in all economic sectors save the poorest "E" group. The Apoyo poll echoed a recent survey by DATUM that showed Peruvians consider the U.S. one of their country's best friends. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE POLL RESULTS -------------- ¶2. The Apoyo poll, taken 5/10-12 in 77 provinces around the country (representative of 81 percent of the electorate) found that Garcia would defeat Humala by 56-44 percent amongst those casting valid ballots (excluding the 15 percent who said they would vote in blank and the eight percent who did not name a preference). Garcia's margin was down two points from last week's Apoyo poll (which had the APRA candidate ahead 57-43 percent - Ref D),but this difference is statistically neglible as it falls well within the poll's claimed 2.2 margin of error. ¶3. Regionally, Garcia was strongest in Lima, the northern coast and the northern sierra, with over 60 percent support in each. Humala led only in the southern Altiplano and in the Amazonian jungle regions. Garcia led in all economic classes except the poorest "E" sector, with wide margins in the "A" (90-10),"B" (72-28) and "C" (60-40) sectors, and a 54-46 percent spread in the "D" sector. Humala's lead in the "E" sector was 56-44 percent, the reverse of Garcia's national advantage. Garcia also was ahead with both sexes, although his support is much stronger amongst women (61-39 percent) than men (52-48 percent). Amongst the different age groups, Garcia's lead ranged between 55 percent (over 40's who remember his first presidency) and 58 percent (the 18-24 year-old sector). ¶4. COMMENT: One of the Apoyo poll's results, however, raises questions as to its overall accuracy. The poll has Garcia ahead in Arequipa and the southern coast (52-48 percent),even though Humala carried this area by a hefty margin (with 48 percent support in Arequipa alone) in the first round. This could be an anomoly, or it could reflect the fact that Apoyo conducts its surveys primarily in urban or suburban areas, and, therefore, that its results do not/not represent the unconsulted 19 percent of the population living in isolated rural areas. Consequently, this segment of the population could well constitute a "hidden" vote for Humala. If this is the case, Garcia's actual margin over Humala would be less than reported by Apoyo, likely falling to single digits. END COMMENT. -------------- VIEWS OF THE U.S. AND THE FTA -------------- ¶5. When asked which country they considered to be Peru's best friend, respondents picked Brazil first (21 percent) and the U.S. second. When asked with which country Peru should have increased economic relations, the U.S. came out on top (41 percent),with Brazil second (15 percent). Furthermore, 68 percent of respondents said that they would emigrate if they could, with most (32 percent) saying they would head for the U.S. These favorable views of the U.S. echo the results of last week's DATUM poll, although the latter found an even greater favorable rating for Uncle Sam (Ref A). STRUBLE