ANDEAN COMMUNITY VIEWS ON VENEZUELA AND BOLIVIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001801 SIPDIS SIPDIS WHA/AND, WHA/EPSC, EB/TPP/BTA/EWH, EB/OIA USTR PASS TO BHARMAN COMMERCE FOR 4331/MAC/WH/MCAMERON E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL EINV ETRD PE SUBJECT: ANDEAN COMMUNITY VIEWS ON VENEZUELA AND BOLIVIA REF: LIMA 1612 Classified By: Ambassador J. Curtis Struble for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . ¶1. (C) Summary. Alan Wagner, Secretary General of the Andean Community, discussed with the Ambassador on May 5 his view on Andean Community dynamics. Wagner noted that Chavez is painting himself into a corner by departing the Andean Community while at the same time condemning the South American Community of Nations. Wagner also opined that Bolivia appeared to be choosing to firmly align itself with Venezuela and Cuba. End Summary. Chavez: Continuing Disruptive Behavior -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador spoke with Alan Wagner, Secretary General of the Andean Community, on May 5 about the current status of the Andean Community and the imminent Venezuela pull out. Wagner, who due to his position is normally extremely cautious about negatively characterizing Venezuela and Bolivia, implied that Venezuela's departure from the Andean Community is definitive and irreversible. He said that Chavez's approach to economic development and trade is doomed to fail when oil prices go down. Like others, Wagner compared Chavez's vision of what international commerce should be to the old Soviet/East Bloc arrangement. ¶3. (C) Wagner opined his doubts that Chavez would be able to achieve full membership in Mercosur. He also noted that Chavez had even condemned the South American Community of Nations a few days earlier, showing that he is locking himself more firmly all the time into a "my way or forget it" approach. Wagner said that he had recently shared his concerns over Chavez's disruptive behavior with Lula's advisor Marco Aurelio Garcia, who shared the view and voiced similar frustration. Bolivia a Disappointment -------------- ¶4. (C) Bolivia, Wagner said, was a real disappointment to him; it looked as though Morales has decided to align himself firmly with the Havana/Caracas bloc. Wagner felt that the loss of a market for soy in Colombia (which Wagner had raised with both us and Uribe) played a role. He stopped short of blaming us (though there was expression of regret that the U.S. could not do more) by saying that Morales' adversaries in Santa Cruz had made the serious tactical mistake of trying to embarrass Morales over the issue, leading the latter to his counterstroke agreement with Chavez. ¶5. (C) During the conversation, Wagner dismissed Bolivian Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca as a non-entity. Instead, Wagner noted that the Bolivian Vice Minister of Foreign Trade, who is a hard-line Chavista, is setting and managing the Bolivian Government's foreign and trade policy. STRUBLE