APRA CONFIDENT OF MAKING SECOND-ROUND RUN-OFF, SEEKS EMBASSY'S ASSISTANCE IN CEMENTING DEMOCRATIC COALITION AGAINST HUMALA

S E C R E T LIMA 001452



SIPDIS



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2016

TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PE

SUBJECT: APRA CONFIDENT OF MAKING SECOND-ROUND RUN-OFF,

SEEKS EMBASSY'S ASSISTANCE IN CEMENTING DEMOCRATIC

COALITION AGAINST HUMALA





Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d)

.



1. (S) SUMMARY: APRA party Co-Secretary General and

Congressman Jorge del Castillo, in a 4/12 breakfast with

Polcouns, said that the Apristas were confident that their

presidential candidate Alan Garcia would reach the run-off

against Union por el Peru's Ollanta Humala. Del Castillo

explained that APRA was looking to cement a coalition of

democratic parties to defeat Humala in the second round and

to promote governability after Garcia takes office. He

requested the Embassy's good offices in helping convince

Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores to concede once it becomes

clear that she cannot catch Garcia (Flores has vowed to

remain in the race "until the last ballot is counted") and in

establishing links to Christian evangelical candidate

Humberto Lay Sun, who captured four percent of the vote. END

SUMMARY.



2. (S) According to del Castillo:



-- APRA had legal representatives (personeros),who

witnessed and recorded the vote counts at practically all of

the 88,481 voting tables, and the reports they filed on the

results have Garcia holding off Flores, although the final

margin may be in the 50,000-70,000 vote range, rather than

the 119,698 reported by the Office of National Electoral

Processes (ONPE) in its latest vote count (Septel).



-- Flores and her Unidad Nacional (UN) team have much the

same information, and know that they have lost.



-- Nonetheless, Flores refuses to concede, vowing to remain

in the race "until the last ballot is counted."



-- On the one hand, Flores' position is understandable, as,

pushed by her spokesman, UN Congressman Xavier Barron, she

went out on a limb by proclaiming victory over Garcia on

election night and now has UN activists pressing her to hold

out until all the votes are in. (NOTE: Barron has since

criticized ONPE for not including the results from challenged

tally sheets in its vote counts, even though the law requires

ONPE to omit these results until the National Electoral Board

rules on their validity - See Septel. END NOTE.)



-- On the other hand, it could take three weeks for all of

the votes to be counted and certified. Three weeks is an

eternity in politics, and if the democratic forces remain

divided during that time, leaving the campaigning to Humala,

it will enable the latter to establish an unchallenged

momentum that will be difficult to counter later.



-- By Easter Sunday sufficient results should be in to

demonstrate clearly that Flroes has no/no chance to overtake

Garcia.



-- At that time, the Embassy could greatly assist the effort

to unite the democratic forces against Humala by using its

good offices to encourage Flores to concede and enter into

discussions with APRA on cooperating in the run-off campaign

to defeat Humala and on establishing a working relationship

and/or co-participation in the Garcia administration that

would follow.



-- The Embassy's assistance in establishing links between

APRA and Christian evangelical candidate Humberto Lay Sun

(who received over four percent of the vote) would also be

appreciated.



-- He (del Castillo) has already opened discussions with

Jose Miguel Morales, President of CONFIEP (Peru's largest

business association) on the need to prioritize cooperation

between an APRA government and the private sector in

addressing social needs in the rural sector: "We agreed that

failure to address these needs will result in Humala being

elected in the first round in 2011."



3. (S) Polcouns said that he would inform his superiors

about del Castillo's requests.

POWERS