ELECTION UPDATE: FINAL POLL HAS HUMALA A SHOO-IN

UNCLAS LIMA 001277 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PE SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: FINAL POLL HAS HUMALA A SHOO-IN FOR THE SECOND-ROUND, WHILE GARCIA LOOKS INCREASINGLY CAPABLE OF EDGING FLORES AT THE FINISH LINE REF: A. LIMA 1199 ¶B. LIMA 1197 Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) Ultra-nationalist "outsider" Union por el Peru (UPP) candidate Ollanta Humala maintained his substantial lead over Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores in the latest Apoyo poll, released 4/2, although his support fell for the first time in nearly two months, from 33 to 31 percent. Flores continued her weekly decline of one point to 26 percent, while APRA's Alan Garcia gained a point for the second week running to 23 percent. Given that this poll does not/not reflect the views of approximately 20 percent of the electorate living in isolated rural areas, who are more likely to vote for Humala or Garcia than for Flores, Humala's actual support is probably higher, while Garcia's stretch run looks increasingly capable of edging Flores at the finish line. In the congressional race, APRA remained in front, Unidad Nacional fell into a tie with UPP, Fujimorista Martha Chavez's Alliance for the Future party surged into a close fourth, while former Interim-President Valentin Paniagua's Centrist Front and President Toledo's Peru Posible party are the other parties that should surpass the four percent nationwise threshold to place candidates in Congress. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE LATEST POLL RESULTS -------------- ¶2. (U) The Apoyo poll, published on 4/2, interviewed 2000 registered voters in 77 provinces around the country, representing 81 percent of the Peruvian population, on 3/29-31. This is the last such poll that will be published prior to the election, as Peruvian law prohibits the public release of polls during the week prior to voting day. When asked which candidate they would vote for if the election were held that day, the response was: Ollanta Humala 31 percent (down two percent since last week - see Ref B) Lourdes Flores 26 percent (down one percent) Alan Garcia 23 percent (up one percent) Martha Chavez 7 percent (no change) Valentin Paniagua 6 percent (no change) Others 7 percent (down one percent) The results are based on the "valid vote" count, which excludes votes cast in blank or respondents who did not name a candidate. In the Apoyo poll, 84 percent of respondents provided "valid votes," which are the ballots that the election authorities will use to determine the final results. This is up from 82 percent last week. ¶3. (U) The Apoyo poll indicates that none of the candidates are likely to win a majority of the vote. If this holds true on election day, there will be a second-round run-off between the two candidates receiving the most votes in the first round. According to the poll results, in a run-off Flores would beat Humala 55-45 percent (a two-percent gain for Flores over the previous week),while Humala would narrowly defeat Garcia 51-49 percent (half the margin of the previous week). ¶4. (U) APRA continued to lead in the congressional race, with 19 percent support (down two percent from last week). Unidad Nacional dropped one point to 16 percent, thereby falling into a tie with UPP. The Fujimorista Alliance for the Future party rose four points to 15 percent, the Centrist Front advanced two points to nine percent, while Peru Posible held steady at six percent. The Christian evangelical National Restoration party, the centrist Alliance for Progress party and the centrist Independent Moralizing Front (FIM) party are at 2-3 percent, within striking distance of the four percent threshold for electing a candidate to Congress. The following table lists the support enjoyed by each alliance/party. Our calculations as to the approximate proportional number of legislative slots that each party/alliance would take are the first number in the parenthesis, while Apoyo's estimate of how many seats each party/alliance would take, based on its analysis of projections in each electoral district is the second number: APRA 19 percent (28-36 seats) Unidad Nacional 16 percent (24-25 seats) Union por el Peru 16 percent (24-31 seats) Alliance for the Future 15 percent (22-15 seats) Centrist Front 9 percent (13-08 seats) Peru Posible 6 percent (09-05 seats) (NOTE: The congressional races will be decided on a proportional basis in each of Peru's 25 electoral districts (the 24 departments and Callao, with metropolitan Lima grouped-in with Lima Department),rather than nationwide. Thus it is possible that the final distribution of seats will differ substantially from our rough calculations on a nationwide basis and the Apoyo projections may be a more accurate prediction. In addition, while the law provides for a four percent minimum threshold for a party to place a legislator in Congress, there is an exception for those parties who manage to elect at least five representatives in two or more electoral districts. Consequently, it remains possible that a party with less than four percent of the national vote could obtain representation in Congress. END NOTE). -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Humala looks like a shoo-in for the second-round run-off as he maintained a strong lead over Flores, although his support fell by two percent over the past week, with his margin over the Unidad Nacional candidate reduced from six to five percent. The drop in Humala's support was based chiefly on a five point decline in rural areas (he fell one point in Lima and gained a point in the urban interior),however, which does not/not have a clear explanation. It could be that negative press coverage of Humala's followers, family and campaign (Ref A) could be influencing this electorate, but one would think that these developments would have a greater effect on urban audiences. Another possibility is that the rural polling performed by Apoyo on these dates happened to concentrate on areas less partial to Humala, leading to a misleading result (Apoyo claims a margin of error of 2.2 percent). ¶6. (SBU) The race for the second spot in the presidential run-off between Flores and Garcia is too close to call, although Garcia looks increasingly capable of coming from behind to pass Flores at the finish line as he did in 2001. Nothing the Unidad Nacional candidate tries has yet proven effective in halting her steady one-percent weekly fall in the polls (a two percent decline in both Lima and other urban areas, offset partially by a one percent rise in rural areas over the past week). Garcia, on the other hand, seems to be picking up the pace for his stretch sprint, gaining one point for the second week running (a one percent rise in Lima and urban areas along with a two-percent rise in rural regions). With Flores' current margin a bare three points, a continuation of current trends would favor Garcia's chances, particularly once one factors in the rural vote not covered by the Apoyo poll (at least 19 percent of registed voters) and the "hidden vote" not reflected in the polls that Garcia has demonstrated in the past. In 2001, Apoyo's final poll also had Flores three points ahead of Garcia, only for the APRA leader to finish 1.5 points in front once the votes were counted. END COMMENT. STRUBLE