HUMALA EXPANDS LEAD, WHILE FLORES INCHES DOWN AND

UNCLAS LIMA 001197 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PE SUBJECT: HUMALA EXPANDS LEAD, WHILE FLORES INCHES DOWN AND GARCIA INCHES UP REF: LIMA 1080 Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Ultra-nationalist, "outsider," Union por el Peru (UPP) presidential candidate Ollanta Humala gained one percentage point over the past week (to 33 percent) in the latest Apoyo nationwide poll, performed 3/22-24, expanding his lead over center-right Unidad Nacional alliance candidate Lourdes Flores (who fell one point to 27 percent) from four to six points. APRA party candidate (and former President) Alan Garcia gained one point to 22 percent. Given that this poll does not/not reflect the views of approximately 20 percent of the electorate living in isolated rural areas, who are more likely to vote for Humala or Garcia than for Flores, Humala's actual support is probably higher, while the race between Flores and Garcia for a spot in the second-round run-off is likely much tighter than the five point difference reported by Apoyo. In the congressional race, APRA, Unidad Nacional, UPP, the Fujimorista Alliance for the Future party and former President Valentin Paniagua's Centrist Front remained 1-5; President Toledo's Peru Posible party jumped two points, to six percent, safely above the four percent nationwide vote threshold to place candidates in Congress; the centrist Alliance for Progress fell below the threshold to three percent; and the Christian evangelical National Restoration party, which seems to be gaining strength in the presidential race as well, moved up to three percent and could well qualify for legislative representation. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE LATEST POLL RESULTS -------------- ¶2. (U) The Apoyo poll interviewed 2000 registered voters in 79 provinces around the country, representing 81 percent of the Peruvian population. When asked which candidate they would vote for if the election were held that day, the response was: Ollanta Humala 33 percent (up one percent over last week - Reftel) Lourdes Flores 27 percent (down one percent) Alan Garcia 22 percent (up one percent) Martha Chavez 7 percent (no change) Valentin Paniagua 6 percent (no change) Others 5 percent (down one percent) The results are based on the "valid vote" count, which excludes votes cast in blank or respondents who did not name a candidate. In the Apoyo poll, 82 percent of respondents provided "valid votes," which are the ballots that the election authorities will use to determine the final results. This is down from 84 percent last week. ¶3. (U) The Apoyo poll continues to predict that none of the candidates are likely to win a majority of the vote. If this holds true on election day, there will be a second-round run-off between the two candidates receiving the most votes in the first round. According to the poll results, in a run-off Flores would beat Humala 53-47 percent (last week's poll reported they would tie: Apoyo's poll director Alfredo Torres explained that his firm's analysis indicates that, should Garcia not/not make the second-round, most APRA voters would side with Flores over Humala in a run-off.) Apoyo also found that Flores and Humala would both beat Garcia, by margins of 57-43 and 52-48, respectively. ¶4. (U) There was no change in the relative position of the alliances/parties in the congressional race, although several shifted a point or two. APRA remained in front, while second-place Unidad Nacional's lead over UPP fell to one point. The largest gain was posted by President Toledo's Peru Posible party, which increased its vote by 50 percent, from four to six points, safely exceeding the four percent threshold for winning a congressional seat. The centrist Alliance for Progress party fell to three percent, dropping below the three percent mark, thereby imperiling its hopes for legislative representation. The Christian evangelical National Restoration party moved up to three percent (its presidential candidate Humberto Lay Sun is now in sixth place in that race with two percent),and, could well place candidates in Congress if it can keep up the momentum. The following table lists the support enjoyed by each alliance/party, while our calculations of the approximate proportional number of legislative slots that they would take are in parenthesis: APRA 21 percent (32 seats) Unidad Nacional 17 percent (26 seats) Union por el Peru 16 percent (25 seats) Alliance for the Future 11 percent (17 seats) Centrist Front 7 percent (11 seats) Peru Posible 6 percent ( 9 seats) (NOTE: The congressional races will be decided on a proportional basis in each of Peru's 25 electoral districts (the 24 departments and Callao, with metropolitan Lima grouped-in with Lima Department),rather than nationwide. Thus it is possible that the final distribution of seats will differ substantially from our rough calculations on a nationwide basis. In addition, while the law provides for a four percent minimum threshold for a party to place a legislator in Congress, there is an exception for those parties who manage to elect at least five representatives in two or more electoral districts. Consequently, it remains possible that a party with less than four percent of the national vote could obtain representation in Congress. END NOTE). -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Humala keeps gaining support and widening his lead with less than two weeks to go to election day. Flores continues her downward slide, falling one point over the past week, and the chances are increasing that she could be passed by Garcia (whose support inched up one point) in the race to reach the second-round run-off. The Apoyo poll, which acknowledges that it only reflects 81 percent of the voting population, probably understates the effect of the isolated rural vote, which would add to Humala's numbers. Garcia would also likely benefit once one factors in the rural vote, and the APRA leader historically has had a "hidden vote" not reflected in the polls. One positive note for Flores is that her support in her stronghold of Lima went up four percent (from 34 to 38 percent),although her backing in the interior fell by three percent (24 to 21 percent). STRUBLE