ALAN GARCIA'S ECONOMIC PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001139 SIPDIS SIPDIS WHA/AND, EB/IFD/OMA, WHA/EPSC USTR FOR BHARMAN TREASURY FOR OASIA/INL GSIGNORELLI COMMERCE FOR 4331/MAC/WH/MCAMERON E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2011 TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ETRD PGOV PE SUBJECT: ALAN GARCIA'S ECONOMIC PLAN Classified By: EconOff Timothy Stater for reason 1.4 (b&d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Should center-left presidential candidate Alan Garcia become President of Peru again, he would most likely pursue an economic program similar to other left-leaning Latin American presidents like Brazilian President Lula and former Chilean President Lagos: generally conservative policies with minor leftist tinkering on the margins. Given the Peruvian economy's good performance over the last several years and Garcia's abysmal economic record from his first Administration, he has thus far in the campaign proposed a relatively conservative economic course of low inflation, fiscal restraint and free trade. Regarding the free trade agreement with the U.S., Garcia is supportive in private and vague to mildly negative in public. Like the other candidates, he has the tendency of jumping on the bandwagon if the front-running candidate Ollanta Humala makes a proposal that resonates with voters. As the April 9 election date nears, Garcia may take more extreme positions, perhaps targeting the FTA. End Summary. ¶2. (U) APRA presidential candidate and former-president Alan Garcia is in the running to make it into the second round of voting, but time is running short. Garcia's economic platform is generally conservative, promising to maintain most of the present administration's successful policies while promising to create more jobs in the sierra. However, his first term (1985-1990) was so disastrous that he has little credibility in economic matters among the business community. Letting Bygones Be Bygones -------------- ¶3. (U) When Garcia was elected President of Peru in 1985 at the age of 35, the government was weak, the terrorist war with the Shining Path was spreading, inflation was rampant, and the international debt burden was very high. Garcia vowed to make bold changes, and one of his first acts was to restrict international debt payments to 10 percent of exports earnings. He later attempted to nationalize Peruvian banks and insurance companies and launched large public works projects. The economy responded positively in the first two years, but as international and private capital dried up, the economy collapsed. By the end of his term, inflation had gone from 87 percent to 7,649 percent, per capita income had dropped to below the 1960 level, the GDP had fallen 20 percent and poverty had grown from 41 percent to 55 percent. ¶4. (U) Garcia has tried to put the best possible spin on the fiasco by reminding Peruvians that Peru was in bad shape when he took over, other Latin countries faired worse, and he, at any rate, is wiser for the experience. He now purports a fairly conservative economic agenda, with a mildly populist spin. Garcia - Part Deux -------------- ¶5. (U) Garcia's plan for government is lengthy and somewhat anodyne. He calls for the cutting in half the salaries of the president, ministers, congressmen and mayors, but fails to mention that the President does not control the budget for Congress nor mayors. Like the other candidates, he favors decentralization, calling for granting more resources and responsibilities to the regions. He is for internet connectivity. He wants to continue and expand the housing programs that are working. In the first six months, he proposes to grant 100,000 land titles. ¶6. (U) His governing plan calls for improving government procurement at all levels. The savings from this would be used to expand educational and health programs. He would hire 250 labor inspectors to focus on eliminating abuses in the services sector. He calls for the doubling of the credit of the Banco Agro, a farm credit bank that he created in the 1980s. Garcia also makes a small mention in his plan that he would try to complete the Lima rail project that he started in the 80s and still stands, like Ozymandias' trunkless legs of stone, as a monument to his Administration's failings. Me Too - Contracts, Foreigners and Jobs -------------- ¶7. (U) Like the other candidates, Garcia has done some bandwagon jumping when ultra-nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala hits an issue that resonates with voters. Humala came out against allowing Chileans to invest in Peruvian ports, and Garcia followed quickly with a similar proposal. Humala says that he will review and possibly renegotiate the energy and mining contracts with foreign companies. Garcia has been less sweeping, but he has said that he would review gas and mining contracts to see if there should be greater taxes on what he sees as windfalls ("sobreganancias") from record high global prices. Garcia took a different tack when center-right candidate Lourdes Flores recently and somewhat desperately announced a pledge to create 650,000 new jobs per year. Garcia said that such a promise was undeliverable and all but called Flores a liar. Sierra Exportadora -------------- ¶8. (U) The pillar of Garcia's economic plan, and the subject that interests him most, is a promise to deliver economic growth to the sierra. He has published a small book on the subject called "Sierra Exportadora". The Peruvian economic expansion of the last several years has largely bypassed the sierra, taking place instead in the mining and gas sectors and the coastal areas with agricultural export industries. Garcia proposes to rectify that by connecting the sierra to the coast with highways and transplanting the agricultural programs that have worked in the coastal areas. Economic growth would come from the production and export of products such as asparagus and artichokes. The Trade Deal -------------- ¶9. (C) Garcia has tried to steer away from addressing the free trade accord with the U.S.. In conversations with the Ambassador, he has confided that he supports the agreement and that his party, which holds the most seats in Congress (28 of 120),will vote to approve it. APRA, however, is a broad party, and Garcia avoids publicly supporting the agreement so as not to compromise some anti-trade congressional candidates on his party's ticket. In recent days, his polls numbers lagging, Garcia has made more strident remarks, saying that Peru "negotiated with the U.S. from its knees," and that he would not sign the Agreement if it meant sacrificing the agricultural sector. He mentions that he would seek to renegotiate the agricultural chapter, saying the Colombians got a better deal. Despite statements like these, Garcia appears to appreciate that the economic success of the last several years has been export driven, and continuing that trend will depend on a U.S. trade accord. Comment -------------- ¶10. (U) Chastened by the spectacular failure of his first term and lacking any credibility on economic issues, Garcia has taken generally conservative economic positions. He has said that his Administration would maintain many of the policies of the current Administration, and that is probably true. His support for the trade accord is probably sincere as well, as much of APRA's core regions on the coast are the chief beneficiaries of Peru's agro-export boom. In addition, the trade accord is a sine qua non for the success of his plan to spur export-led growth in the sierra. As he tries to position himself to get into the second round, his positions may veer as opportunities beckon. STRUBLE