MUTHARIKA AT TWO YEARS: A MIXED RECORD

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 LILONGWE 000442 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR MI STATE FOR AF/S, INR/AA USAID FOR AYANNA TOURE SUBJECT: MUTHARIKA AT TWO YEARS: A MIXED RECORD Ref: A) Lilongwe 406 B) Lilongwe 433 LILONGWE 00000442 001.2 OF 004 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: President Mutharika this week marks two years in office, and his record is one of mixed success. Mutharika has undertaken a number of popular initiatives to restore order and accountability in Malawian society, and his program of macroeconomic reforms has won praise from donors. But Mutharika's tenure has been marred by constant political instability, an increase in politically-motivated prosecutions, and serious doubts about his ability to put in place economic policies that will attract investment and improve long-term growth. Our bottom line: Incremental economic reform and political modernization is still possible, but it will be harder than we thought. Real and comprehensive reform awaits a generational change. End summary. Success is in the Eye of the Beholder -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On balance, most Malawians would say that the Mutharika administration has so far been a success, although perceptions differ between Malawians and foreign donors on the government's most important accomplishments. ¶3. (SBU) In a recent op-ed piece, the president's spokesman cited the "restoration of dignity, national pride, discipline and moral obligations" as first on the GOM's list of achievements. The return to a past era of orderliness has been a clear and consistent theme of the Mutharika government. Most Malawians view the first ten years of multiparty democracy under Bakili Muluzi (1994-2004) as a period of disorder, chaos, economic turmoil, and corruption. The period is commonly referred to as "the lost decade," and many Malawians now look nostalgically at the order and discipline that characterized the era of the former dictator Hastings Kamuzu Banda. ¶4. (SBU) Mutharika has seized on that public longing for a return to a perceived era of former glory, with great political success. Reversing the policies of his predecessor, who banished all references to Dr. Banda, Mutharika has restored Kamuzu's name to prominent landmarks, and fast- tracked construction of a $600,000 mausoleum in Lilongwe for Banda, a project that had languished under the Muluzi government. Mutharika dedicated the mausoleum with great fanfare earlier this month, and its construction has won almost universal public approval as a fitting tribute to "the Father of the Malawi Nation." ¶5. (SBU) Other popular Mutharika policies aimed at restoring societal order include his anti-corruption campaign, the forced removal of vendors from city streets, the ordered return of refugees and asylum seekers to refugee camps, the destruction of illegal buildings, and efforts to improve the performance of the civil service. Such measures have been also been popular because of a traditional Malawian affinity for "strong" leaders who give orders and get things done. ¶6. (SBU) A senior presidential advisor recently told us that the average Malawian is concerned about food, health, and education, in that order. Mutharika's most popular policy moves have been in the all-important agricultural sector, and he has concentrated heavily on food security. He instituted a massive fertilizer subsidy that Malawians credit (along with good rains) with giving the country its best maize harvest in the past ten years. Also very popular has been an expansion of a donor funded food-for-work program, and a giveaway of thousands of manual irrigation pumps. Mutharika touts grand food-related infrastructure projects such as large silos to store grain for lean periods, dams, and irrigation schemes, all of which have won solid public approval. One Step Forward, One Step Back -------------- ¶7. (SBU) While most Malawians view these actions as positive, many remain cautious about Mutharika and there is a sense that his good policies have been offset by significant negatives. ¶8. (SBU) Much of Mutharika's tenure has been consumed by political instability that conflict-averse Malawians find instinctively uncomfortable. They applauded the launch of his anti-corruption campaign in 2004, but were uneasy with the resulting open warfare between Mutharika and his former United Democratic Front (UDF) colleagues that persists to this day. LILONGWE 00000442 002.2 OF 004 Most Malawians approved of Mutharika's resignation from the UDF, but were disappointed when he quickly formed another party and attracted many of the same tired politicians to join. Many people viewed the move as business-as-usual Malawian politics, and felt that Mutharika's new party would be little different from its corrupt predecessors. ¶9. (SBU) Many Malawians are unhappy with the clear increase in political prosecutions that has taken place in recent months (ref A). The arrests and prosecutions of a number of opposition MPs, journalists and other political opponents are seen as a worrisome trend that could return Malawi to the denial of political freedom that was standard practice under Dr. Banda. Many people side with Mutharika in the belief that Vice President Chilumpha has neglected his duties, but they are not comfortable with the undignified treatment of the vice president, in which he has been shown in the media riding in the back of police vans and speaking to his family members through prison barbed wire. ¶10. (SBU) The recent visit of President Mugabe was strongly opposed by many Malawians and frowned upon by businesspeople who complained that the visit damaged investor confidence. The government managed to keep a lid on public protests by pacifying human rights NGOs and arresting a number of opposition figures before the visit. Many people worry about Mutharika's close ties to Mugabe, and most Malawians have no interest in emulating Zimbabwe's example on human rights or economic policies. ¶11. (SBU) Concern about the administration's direction is sufficiently widespread to prompt Malawians to question the President's motives, even when they are evidently well- intentioned. Many commentators have expressed concern about a particular Banda-imitation activity: annual "crop inspection" tours. Mutharika wants to encourage the farmers by showing interest in what they do and how their crops are doing. But to many, the inspections evoke the era when Dr. Banda ordered peasants to grow certain crops and meted out punishment for non-compliance, a policy that distorted agricultural markets and contributed to Malawi's overwhelming and unhealthy dependence on maize as a primary cereal crop. In a similar vein, a number of parliamentarians also wonder whether the administration intends to re-invent the unlamented Banda-era "Forfeiture Act" in the form of the draft anti-money laundering legislation, and we and the bill's sponsors have spent significant effort to distinguish a modern money- laundering regime from the tool used during the Banda period to seize houses, businesses, and other property. ¶12. (SBU) Most Malawians are not pleased with the performance of Parliament in the past two years, and deplore the lack of harmony between Mutharika and parliamentary leaders. Last year's impeachment fight was the most prominent example of a Parliament that is seen as bogged down in political squabbles and unable to get any work done. The Foreigners' View of Success... -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Western perceptions of Mutharika's success are rather different. In the eyes of donors, his control of government spending, lowering of domestic debt, and focus on macroeconomic fundamentals are the signal achievements thus far. In the face of IMF pressure, the GOM has allowed the kwacha to depreciate toward a more realistic value. Mutharika's emphasis on fiscal discipline won the confidence of donors early on, and aid flows have increased. The IMF granted a new Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) in August 2005, the World Bank has expanded its program and granted a new structural adjustment loan, and European bilateral donors have augmented budget support. ¶14. (SBU) The GOM won praise from donors for its cooperative and timely response to the past year's food security crisis, and the coordinated action of donors and government averted massive hunger. ... and Failure -------------- ¶15. (SBU) Despite a stated orientation toward reform and some clear successes, the Mutharika government faces many problems, and some of its proposed solutions are cause for concern. LILONGWE 00000442 003.2 OF 004 ¶16. (SBU) Donors are constantly frustrated by painfully slow decision making at the highest levels of government. Major policy documents languish in Cabinet for months at a time, and many important decisions are seemingly never taken. The vicious battle over impeachment in late 2005 has left parliament deadlocked, and Mutharika's minority government has been unable to pass any significant legislation in over a year. There is a large backlog of bills awaiting passage that are critical to any forward movement on reform. ¶17. (SBU) While the GOM has made honest efforts at addressing long term food security problems, its policy solutions, such as massive fertilizer and seed subsidies and construction of costly grain silos, are not necessarily the best prescription for success. Mutharika's emphasis on other fanciful schemes such as his pet project Shire Zambezi Waterway and the construction of a new technology university in Lilongwe exhibit a certain detachment from reality, and an unwillingness to tackle more concrete problems that are within the GOM's power to resolve. ¶18. (SBU) Democracy remains fragile. The above-mentioned political prosecutions are cause for concern, although the recent firing of Attorney General Ralph Kasambara may change the outlook. The GOM has yet to produce any solid evidence against Vice President Chilumpha in his ongoing treason case. Despite significant donor pressure, the GOM shows little interest in conducting long-postponed local government elections. Mutharika dismissed all of the elected district and municipal assemblies last year when their terms expired. This has led to a lack of oversight of local and district administrators, and deprives the country of a feeder system for the development of younger political leaders. ¶19. (SBU) Mutharika's recent pronouncements on economic policy are of particular concern. His mandated minimum prices for tobacco have caused major disruptions in the tobacco market (which provides 60% of Malawi's foreign exchange) and have precipitated an ongoing forex shortage that could have very serious implications for the country's balance of payments later in the year (ref B). Mutharika has announced his intention to intervene in the markets of other "strategic" crops such as tea and cotton, and producers and buyers in those markets are very nervous about the prospect of government interference. ¶20. (SBU) During a recent performance review, a visiting IMF mission expressed serious concern that the GOM's structural reforms in public expenditure have stalled, and signaled that Malawi's anticipated HIPC debt relief may not be as easily achieved as previously thought. ¶21. (SBU) Malawi's business community continues to worry about increased political risk and businesspeople complain that instability is driving away investment and raising the cost of capital on international markets. Among business leaders, Mutharika is no longer seen as the reformer they had hoped for in 2004, when he launched his anti-corruption campaign and promised reforms to stimulate investment. ¶22. (SBU) The GOM has made a laudable effort to correct Malawi's macroeconomic fundamentals, but there has been almost no progress on making essential (and relatively easy) improvements to the business climate that will attract new investment. There are still major problems with transport, electric and water utilities, tax administration, and customs procedures. The lack of GOM willingness to fix these problems is doubly surprising, since a raft of studies have clearly identified the problems and Mutharika himself constantly talks of improving the business environment. The GOM's program for privatization of unprofitable state enterprises is moribund, and only one major privatization has taken place since Mutharika took office. Many observers believe that the president "talks the talk" of economic liberalization, but his actions show that he doesn't really believe the message. Comment -------------- ¶23. (SBU) Clearly the optimism that was present in early months of this administration, on the part of Malawians and foreign observers alike, has been greatly tempered. Mutharika wants to be a reformist president, but his reforms are slow and not terribly dynamic. Ironically, his vision of reform looks backward rather than to the future, and he seems to LILONGWE 00000442 004.2 OF 004 idealize a Malawi of the 1960s rather than pushing his country to be a competitor in the globalized world of the 21st century. ¶24. (SBU) Malawi's transition to democracy is not yet complete. It came about through exhaustion and mortality, and left behind an older generation of leaders who grew up under the Banda dictatorship and who sometimes seem to be struggling not to reform and democratize Malawi but to claim the mantle of the Life President and to restore the perceived order and unity of his era. Mutharika is clearly a politician in this mold. He will achieve some positive steps for Malawi, but it will take longer and be much harder than we thought two years ago. Real and comprehensive reform will probably need to wait for the coming of a new generation of Malawian leaders. EASTHAM