GOG EXPERT ON EG-GABON BOUNDARY NEGOTIATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIBREVILLE 000222 SIPDIS SIPDIS KINSHASA ALSO FOR BRAZZAVILLE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV EPET GB EK SUBJECT: GOG EXPERT ON EG-GABON BOUNDARY NEGOTIATIONS REF: A. LIBREVILLE 166 ¶B. LIBREVILLE 184 ¶C. YAOUNDE 491 Classified By: DCM Katherine Dhanani. Reason: 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) Summary: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Legal Advisor Michel Biang reports the GoG and GREG will renew ministerial level maritime boundary negotiations May 2 in New York. The GoG is no longer optimistic about an expeditious resolution. Biang fears that declining Gabonese oil production will weaken GoG resolve and lead to acceptance of an unfavorable joint development zone. End summary. ¶2. (C) DCM met with Ministry of Foreign Affairs Legal Advisor Michel Biang April 6 for an update on border negotiations with Equatorial Guinea. Biang said the GoG negotiating team, led by Foreign Minister Ping, had approached the March 15 meeting in Geneva with misguided optimism, but will attend the next meeting, May 2 in New York, with low expectations (reftels). Biang blamed an obtuse mediator and (predictably) lack of good faith on the part of the GREG for the March 15 debacle. He told DCM that both the GoG and the GREG categorically rejected Fortier's proposed starting point for the March 15 talks. He showed DCM (but would not provide copies of) the GOG's and the GREG's initial offers. The GoG's followed the outlines that Ping described to Ambassador Walkley (Ref A),starting and ending at the 1974 treaty line, but dipping down to include Corisco and Elobey, using a line equidistant from Corisco and Mbanie. The GREG proposal followed the EG's 1999 unilaterally declared EEZ boundary, but conceded to Gabon a vertical crescent of waters east of Mbanie island. (It was not clear, but the GREG proposal may have used a midpoint between Corisco and the Gabonese mainland.) Each country claimed Mbanie Island for itself. ¶3. (C) Biang explained that the 1974 treaty was not found in the French archives until 2000, when he went looking for it after his research uncovered numerous secondary references to its signing. He promised to show DCM on her next visit a photograph taken on the occasion of its signing, in which Obiang features as a staff aide. He noted that both the GREG and GoG act as though they accept the land boundary elements of the 1974 treaty. In his view, the evidence supporting the legitimacy of the 1974 treaty is so strong that the GoG has nothing to fear from pursuing a decision in the International Court of Justice. (Biang argued that there is ample precedent for basing a decision on a copy, including one of the ICJ's most recent decisions.) ¶4. (C) Biang fears, however, that President Bongo will instruct his team to renew discussion of a joint development zone (JDZ). Biang believes that Shell is encouraging this, and that Gabon's impending decline in oil production may give the GoG a sense of urgency that would undermine its bargaining strength. Biang believes that the GREG has seismic data on disputed areas that indicate where the best prospects lie, whereas the GoG would enter JDZ negotiation blind. ¶5. (C) Biang once again strongly asserted the GoG's opinion that the Petronas-commissioned oil rig was drilling in Gabonese waters. WALKLEY