NO SURPRISE IN SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE LEGISLATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIBREVILLE 000200 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS KINSHASA PASS BRAZZAVILLE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2016 TAGS: PGOV GB SUBJECT: NO SURPRISE IN SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS-YET REF: LIBREVILLE 180 Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER GLENN FEDZER FOR REASON 1.4 (B) ¶1. (U Summary: The MDFM ("Movement for the Democratic Force of Change" -- the party of President Fradique de Menezes) and the MLSTP ("Movement for the Liberation of Sao Tome and Principe" -- the party of the Prime Minister) split the vote in the March 26 Sao Tome and Principe (STP) legislative elections, with ADI ("Independent Democratic Alliance" -- the party of Patrice Trovoada) finishing third. The MDFM took 22 seats, the MLSTP 20, ADI 12 and Novo Rumo ("New Direction") 1. ADI's strong showing puts Patrice Trovoada in position to negotiate with the MDFM or MLSTP for the best deal to join a governing coalition in Sao Tome's 55 seat assembly. The campaign and election were peaceful, but 26 voting places (out of a total of 232) were shut down by local activists or boycotted on voting day as a means of protesting local economic/infrastructure conditions. International observers noted some minor technical problems during the election and suspected incidents of vote buying, but considered the vote to be generally free and fair. Those polling stations that had to close or were boycotted March 26 are scheduled for a re-vote on Sunday, April 2 (as called for in Sao Tome's voting laws),but the results are not anticipated to affect significantly the outcome of the legislative elections. There were 79,842 voters registered for the elections, out of a total population of approximately 160,000. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Sao Tome and Principe -- considered by many to be one of the few genuine democracies in this part of Africa -- concluded two-weeks of campaigning for legislative elections with large rallies throughout Sao Tome on March 24. The final day of campaigning was virtually a carnival, with singing and dancing widespread and noisy political party rallies taking place just a few blocks apart. The events included a profusion of free hats, T-shirts, flags and paid entertainment. The dirt-poor country seemed awash in campaign paraphernalia As predicted by banker Acacio Bonfim (reftel),the exchange rate for the local currency temporarily strengthened due to inflow of hard currency allegedly to finance the election. A twenty-year old dancer performing at one rally was undecided on which party she would vote for, but said her pay for the day (the equivalent of 40 dollars, the monthly minimum wage) might help her make a decision. Gabonese President Bongo appeared to be one international contributor: on March 23, three days before the election and a week after President de Menezes made a private visit to Gabon, a planeload of campaign material for the MDFM arrived from Libreville on an airline owned by Bongo. Many suspected that the delivery was a sign that Bongo was financially backing Menezes. ¶3. (U) On election day, non-violent community protests, particularly in rural areas of MeZochi province, blocked voting at 26 polling stations. The Electoral Commission rescheduled the voting in those locations for April 2. While the stations accounted for over 9500 registered voters, their votes are unlikely to shift the outcome by more than one or two seats. The protests were only marginally related to the election process; activists in most of the involved communities were demanding water, electricity, and better roads -- one village hung up a banner "no road, no votes" -- and blocked access to the polling stations with trees, old cars, and burning tires as a means of dramatizing their concerns. The protesters were non-violent, non-threatening, and talked freely with electoral observers and security forces; the latter took no action to remove the barricades or arrest demonstrators. One community (a village involved in labor difficulties with the Pestana Group, a Portuguese resort company) allowed the electoral workers to set up a polling station but then boycotted the election completely as a means of publicizing their grievances. ¶4. (U) In a letter delivered to the president of the STP Electoral Commission, international observers, including a team from the US Embassy in Libreville, noted minor technical flaws, such as late openings, inconsistent procedures, or a lack of sufficient ink at some polling stations. There was no evidence or accusations of voter intimidation or threats by the government or security forces, and in most locations the voting occurred peacefully, and the flaws observed were neither intentional nor influential on the results. The observers concluded that "the elections were generally conducted in a manner that met international norms" and that STP voters were free to express their political choices at the ballot box. ¶5. (C) However, observers suspected, but could not definitively prove, that there was some vote buying on election day -- or at least the expectation on the part of some voters that they would be paid for their votes. Voters milling around some polling stations told observers they were waiting for someone to give them money for a vote; some even approached observers with offers to sell their vote. Many of these individuals, frustrated in their intent to get paid, finally gave up and swelled the waiting lines late in the day, ending up voting by candlelight. ¶6. (U) As predicted (reftel),the MDFM, MLSTP and ADI split the vote, with President de Menezes' MDFM the biggest winner with twenty-two seats. The MLSTP won twenty, ADI twelve, and Novo Rumo one seat. Twenty-eight seats are needed for a majority in Sao Tome's fifty-five seat National Assembly. The strong showing by ADI allows it to hold out for the best deal in forming a coalition government in partnership with one of the larger parties. ¶7. (U) We will provide further analysis once the votes of Sunday April 2 are in and the final election results tallied. WALKLEY