CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: EYE ON THE PRIZE

UNCLAS LA PAZ 000443 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR FOR WHA A/S SHANNON AND P/DAS SHAPIRO NSC FOR DFISK USINCSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SOCI PGOV BL SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: EYE ON THE PRIZE REF: LA PAZ 336 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Constituent Assembly (CA) is shaping up to be Bolivia's grand political prize and the Evo Morales administration has devoted itself almost exclusively to passing legislation assuring near total control of the process to the MAS (the governing party),including with threats of social pressure. Meanwhile, the opposition in Congress and the regions has sought to generate alternative projects and to prolong the debate -- to better the chances for a balanced outcome. Whether the CA will simply revise the existing constitution or else (more ambitiously) "refound" the Bolivian state is a central question; the answer will turn on who is in charge. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Long a large but undefined project looming on the political horizon, with some claiming it alone could repair Bolivia's fraying social consensus and others fearing it would inevitably fracture fragile national unity, the Constituent Assembly (CA) is now shaping up to be Bolivia's grand political prize. Many observers see it as the crucial second step in a two-step process that began with the December 18 national elections. Some believe its importance will dwarf that of the elections. In concrete terms, controlling the CA could mean shaping Bolivia's political, social and economic direction for the next generation. ¶3. (SBU) These potentially stratospheric stakes explain why the government has devoted itself to passing its legislative proposal for the CA as quickly as possible, to the near exclusion of any other activity. Many observers have commented that, apart from a few symbolic pronouncements (such as the public austerity plan, not yet approved by Congress),top government officials have done little else but campaign for the Assembly. Moreover, the government's legislative proposal - three representatives per constituency, with candidates achieving more than 50% sweeping all three seats (ref) - seems designed to ensure that the MAS wins the two-thirds majority it will need to control the process outright. On February 15, President Morales again publicly threatened to lead protest marches against the Congress should it fail to approve the government's proposal. According to news reports, MAS legislators (who now have the power to do such things) set February 20 as the deadline to receive additional legislative proposals, a clear attempt to accelerate the process or at least to avoid prolonging it. To many observers, the government is in a hurry because it wants to capitalize on its momentum out of the elections and its near 75% popular support in recent polls. ¶4. (SBU) Meanwhile, the opposition in Congress and the regions has tried to slow the process down. Many observers believe that the longer the initial debate, the more the Bolivian people will become aware of the diverse alternatives and of the dangers of a MAS monopoly of power, the more likely the government's inflated popularity will drop, and therefore the better the odds that a politically balanced CA can emerge. Civic leaders from Tarija, Beni and Pando have threatened that their departments will boycott the Assembly if Congress fails to consider their proposals, which call for representation primarily by region rather than by legislative constituency. Other regional groups, including from Santa Cruz, have given their congressional representatives alternative proposals for Congress's consideration. Some opposition legislators have told us that they might push proposals that feature corporatist representation, particularly for indigenous peoples, but largely for tactical (rather than ideological) reasons -- to attract the support of social sector and indigenous groups who oppose the government's proposal because it does not include such representation. We have heard that congress has received as many as 12 legislative proposals so far. ¶5. (SBU) One central question relates to the scope and limits of the CA; that is, whether it will be simply "derivative," and seek to revise the existing constitution, or else "originary," a much more ambitious effort to clean the slate, restructure the Bolivian state and even "refound" Bolivian society as a whole. The answer to this question will turn on who ends up controlling the CA process, probably the most crucial matter of all. Ricardo Paz, a vociferous proponent of a CA ("as long as it's well done") told us recently that the government's proposal is designed exclusively to secure its hold on power, which, he mused, was not supposed to be the point at all. Should that happen, the government will be able to do just about whatever it pleases -- at least in theory. GREENLEE