A YEAR AFTER ELECTIONS: WHAT IS NEXT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 003401 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: A YEAR AFTER ELECTIONS: WHAT IS NEXT? REF: LA PAZ 3369 Classified By: Amb. Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) December 18 marks the first anniversary of the presidential elections that brought Evo Morales to power. The anniversary comes at a time of high POLITICAL tension, especially between the western highlands and eastern lowlands. On December 15 more than one million people, took to the streets in the departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, and Tarija to support departmental autonomy and the two-thirds vote in the constituent assembly. Some 800,000 protesters marched in Santa Cruz alone. While President Morales continues to enjoy unprecedented popularity in strongholds such as El Alto, his aggressive, uncompromising style continues to alienate large segments of the population, as demonstrated by the enormous numbers of people who took to the streets last week. End summary. -------------- PROTEST ASSEMBLIES IN THE EAST -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On December 15 the four departments that make up the eastern lowlands (half-moon states),Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, and Pando, held large scale outdoor assemblies (cabildo in Spanish) to support departmental autonomy and the two-thirds vote in the constituent assembly (CA). Opposition and government figures estimate that more than one million people attended, including 800,000 in Santa Cruz. This figure represents more than ten percent of Bolivia's nine million population. The assemblies were peaceful, with the exception of rioting when assembly supporters outside of Santa Cruz tried to cross a road blockade and were attacked by MAS sympathizers. -------------- -------------- ASSEMBLIES AGREE TO REJECT CONSTITUTION, CREATE BOARD -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) All four assemblies were carefully managed by departmental and civic leaders so as to avoid mention of independence. The crowds were asked to reject any constitution that was not approved article by article by a two-thirds vote or that did not deal with departmental autonomy as passed by the July 2, 2006 referendum. Attendees were also asked to ratify the creation of the Bolivian Autonomous Democratic Board (made up of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, and Pando) to facilitate and coordinate the consolidation of autonomy. Prefects and civic leaders from the four departments were due to hold their first board meeting in Tarija on December 18. GOB reaction to the assemblies has been restrained until now, with President Morales congratulating the prefects for holding peaceful assemblies and not speaking of independence. -------------- ELECTION ANNIVERSARY -------------- ¶4. (C) December 18 marks the first anniversary of the presidential elections that brought Evo Morales to power. President Morales won with an historic --indeed, unprecedented-- fifty-four percent of the popular vote. Since then, the president has proven masterful at bold public LA PAZ 00003401 002 OF 002 relations strokes directed at his voters . The presidential decree and subsequent "nationalization" of the hydrocarbons industry, passing of the land reform act, and the Juancito Pinto bonus which gave every public schoolchild approximately USD 25 cash at the end of November, were all very popular measures. President Morales' message of indigenous inclusion and promises of a better future for the masses have kept his approval rating high, sixty-two percent according to a study released on December 15. On the negotiations side of the ledger, Morales has been criticized for mishandling the Huanuni mine incident which resulted in sixty deaths; his handling of coca-growers in the Carrasco National Park has also led to clashes. -------------- CHALLENGES FACING MORALES -------------- ¶5. (C) Demands for a two-thirds article-by-article vote of the new constitution and provincial demands for autonomy are just two of the challenges facing the Morales administration. President Morales has said he will nationalize the mining sector in 2007; his mining minister has assured us that American investors have nothing to fear. Another challenge is maintaining the senate presidency, now held by MAS Senator Santos Ramirez, in the January election. Salary negotiations in February with government teachers' and health care workers' unions are expected to be difficult due to the recent large increase given to the miners. In March the GOB faces the six-month counter-narcotics certification review, and ATPDEA benefits are set to expire June 30, 2007 unless the GOB can successfully negotiate a trade agreement with the U.S. -------------- COMMENT -------------- 6 (C) While President Morales enjoys unprecedented popularity in strongholds such as El Alto, his aggressive, uncompromising style continues to alienate large segments of the population, as demonstrated by the enormous numbers of people who took to the streets last week in the east. Until now, Morales has been successful in maintaining the support of his core voters through populist measures. He has been considerably less successful maintaining support among the middle classes, who increasingly fear the very populism that he uses to energize his core of support. So far we have seen no evidence to suggest that that Morales is willing to compromise his agenda or his desire to rewrite Bolivia's constitution in a way that will preserve his POLITICAL position. The growing anger of the eastern provinces however, may force him to do just that. End comment. GOLDBERG