LARGE SCALE ASSEMBLIES PLANNED FOR DECEMBER 15

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003369 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: LARGE SCALE ASSEMBLIES PLANNED FOR DECEMBER 15 Classified By: Ecopol Counselor Andrew Erickson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) As its next measure opposing recent GOB strong-arm tactics in the Constituent Assembly (CA) and congress, the eastern departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija (known collectively as the half-moon states) are planning large-scale assemblies ("cabildos" in Spanish) to support departmental autonomy and the two-thirds vote in the CA. Most expect attendance of several thousand, but one high estimate suggested that as many as a million people may gather in Santa Cruz. In Cochabamba, a smaller assembly is planned for December 14 to "defend Bolivian unity, democracy and law." ¶2. (SBU) The GOB has announced that it will respect these demonstrations, but it has also warned against rumored (and isolated) independence movements that seek to divide Bolivia. High level GOB officials have discounted speculation that the Morales administration plans to impose martial law, and have stated that the police/military presence in eastern Bolivia continues at normal levels. However, pro-MAS social sectors are planning "alternative cabildos" to "defend Bolivia's unity" throughout the half-moon states, and perhaps the department of Potosi. ¶3. (C) Comment: The stage is set for potential violence, with pro-GOB social sectors and opposition events to take place within ten blocks of each other in Santa Cruz. Morales' rhetoric and continued attacks on the opposition, eastern Bolivia and the press remain unhelpful, as does the overheated rhetoric from the other side. Opposition political insiders believe the GOB is waiting to see how much political force the opposition can muster on December 15 before evaluating its next steps. End comment. GOLDBERG