MAS INSIDERS SPECULATE ABOUT MORALES' INTENTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 003178 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: MAS INSIDERS SPECULATE ABOUT MORALES' INTENTIONS REF: LA PAZ 2130 Classified By: Ecopol Counselor Andrew Erickson for reason 1.4 (b). ¶1. (C) Summary: Two MAS insiders independently told poloff November 22 that President Morales intends to close congress and the courts in January 2007. Both said the GOB is gearing up for the next presidential elections, which will likely be set for early 2008. One said if Morales stumbles politically, the MAS may move to crown Senate President Santos Ramirez as its next leader. One insider, a MAS congressional staffer, also told poloff about growing discontent within the MAS party in Congress. The reports of Morales' plans to close Congress and the courts may be indicative of Morales' intentions or may be mere rumors, but his ability to achieve such ends will depend greatly on the cohesiveness of Bolivia's political opposition. End summary. -------------- NEXT STEP IN THE PLAYBOOK? -------------- ¶2. (C) Two MAS insiders independently told poloff November 22 that President Morales intends to close congress and the courts in January 2007. One is a reliable Embassy contact and MAS congressional staffer; the other, a new contact, is a MAS insider who participated in the mid-November MAS congress in Cochabamba. Both said that Morales' agreement to raise Constituent Assembly delegates' salaries was a step toward closing congress. By raising salaries, they said, Morales hopes to have purchased the unconditional loyalty of MAS delegates, which he lacks in congress. The MAS staffer says closing congress is consistent with Morales' plan to restructure the GOB. Instead of merely closing the Senate and adding a fourth branch of government (a nine-member council which would supervise the attorney general, comptroller general, the human rights ombudsman, and the police and military) via a new constitution (reftel),the staffer believed that Morales' end game is to reorganize the GOB around only two branches of government-- the executive branch and the new government council. ¶3. (C) Both contacts said the GOB is gearing up for the next presidential elections, which will likely be set for early ¶2008. The Constituent Assembly is scheduled to end in August 2007 and many analysts expect Morales to resign from office in favor of new elections (which presumably would allow for re-election and a longer presidential term). The MAS staffer said the Bolivian government is planning its biggest campaign to date, likely to start mid-2007, and that the GOB is working to immobilize the possible competition (septel). -------------- ONE BIG HAPPY FAMILY -------------- ¶4. (C) The MAS staffer said that if Morales stumbles politically, the MAS may move to crown Senate President Santos Ramirez as its next leader, with MAS Constituent Assembly delegate Roman Loaiza as his running mate. Loaiza, who suffered a near-fatal fall in the Constituent Assembly on September 1, recuperated in Santa Cruz and then received additional medical treatment in Cuba. The staffer told poloff that Morales has been heavily involved in Loaiza's recovery, even personally visiting him in the hospital, because Morales reportedly has an illegitimate child with Loaiza's oldest daughter. (Note: Another of Loaiza's daughters is married to hardline Education Minister Felix Patzi. End note). ¶5. (C) The MAS staffer also told poloff of growing discontent within the MAS party in Congress. He said that two weeks LA PAZ 00003178 002 OF 002 ago, MAS staffers drafted a letter to President Morales suggesting several courses of action relating to Congress. In response, Minister of the Presidency Juan de la Quintana invited the staffers to a meeting at the presidential palace. When they arrived, however, Quintana abruptly attacked them for having drafted such a "bold" letter. Several days later, the staffers learned that the president had ordered their pay docked. The staffers wrote a second letter to President Morales, essentially challenging the pay reduction. Quintana called one of the staffers to say that they wouldn't be docked a second time, but that he hoped never to hear from them again. -------------- READING COCA LEAVES -------------- ¶6. (C) The MAS staffer also provided insight into Morales' decision-making process, saying that Morales frequently asks five indigenous fortune tellers who he keeps on retainer to read coca leaves to guide his decisions. The staffer said Morales heavily relies on these fortune tellers, favoring their mystical advice over the substance of the issue at hand. For example, he said that when Morales has to make a hiring decision, he refuses to read the candidate's curriculum vitae, instead soliciting advice from the fortune tellers regarding whether the person will support him. -------------- COMMENT: DUBIOUS INTENTIONS -------------- ¶7. (C) Comment: La Paz is awash with rumors, but we report the musings of these two contacts because of their privileged placement within the MAS organization. The reports of Morales' plans to close congress and the courts may be indicative of Morales' intentions or may be mere rumors, but his ability to achieve such ends will depend greatly on the cohesiveness of Bolivia's political opposition. Traditionally fragmented and disorganized, the opposition's current strategy of holding up passage of and demanding changes to the MAS land reform bill as a pressure tactic to win a two-thirds vote for constitutional changes may have some impact. The more difficulty Morales has in getting congress to pass his agenda, however, the more Morales may consider using anti-democratic and unconstitutional measures, such as closing the other branches of government, to achieve his desired ends. End comment. GOLDBERG