MAS PUSHES FORWARD WITH SIMPLE MAJORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003132 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BL SUBJECT: MAS PUSHES FORWARD WITH SIMPLE MAJORITY Classified By: Ecopol Counselor Andrew Erickson for reason 1.4 (b). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Over the objections of the political opposition, President Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party imposed its proposal for a simple majority vote for constitutional changes, with a two-thirds vote on the final text of the constitution and a limited "veto" for the opposition, on November 17. Reactions to date have included speculation about the opposition abandoning the Constituent Assembly or declaring a parallel Assembly, and angry talk of eastern departments seceding from Bolivia. The MAS' move to secure firm control over Bolivia's new constitution comes as no real surprise (particularly given the Venezuelan experience),but adds to concerns about President Morales' dedication to consensus-based democracy. End summary. -------------- THE MAS STRONG ARMS THE ASSEMBLY -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Over the objections of the political opposition, President Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party imposed its proposal for a simple majority vote for constitutional changes on November 17. Until late November 17, the MAS had been negotiating with the National Unity (UN) party and others on a proposal which provided for a two-thirds vote with the possibility of a minority veto and a popular referendum on controversial measures. However, the GOB sent Vice Minister of Coordination Hector Arce to Sucre November 17 to insist that MAS delegates toe the party line in favor of a simple majority, thus halting negotiations. ¶3. (SBU) The MAS-approved measure provides for a simple majority on constitutional changes, but a two-thirds vote on the final text of the constitution. The measure further provides the opposition with a "veto" which enables it to call for a two-thirds vote on three separate constitutional proposals. If the two-thirds vote fails, the measure would be submitted to the public via referendum. -------------- THE OPPOSITION REGROUPS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Reactions to date have included speculation about the opposition abandoning the Constituent Assembly or declaring a parallel Assembly, and angry talk of eastern departments seceding from Bolivia (Note: not an infrequent threat here. End note). Santa Cruz' civic committee is meeting November 20 to define its official position for the nationwide civic committee gathering scheduled for November ¶23. Many civic committees have declared a state of emergency, and leaders say they will "take irreversible measures" if consensus is not reached. Opposition parties Podemos and the UN are also meeting November 20 to decide on their strategy and the UN party has expanded its hunger strike. The National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) party has asked the MAS to reconsider its position. -------------- COMMENT: NO REAL SURPRISE -------------- ¶5. (C) The MAS' move to secure firm control over the drafting of Bolivia's new constitution comes as no real surprise (particularly given the Venezuelan experience),but adds to concerns about President Morales' dedication to consensus-based democracy. Whether in fact the MAS has the right to move forward on individual amendments on a majority vote is a matter of legal opinion. What is certain is that the Constituent Assembly's enabling legislation does require a two-thirds vote at the end of the process. (This is provided for under the rules approved November 17). While the political opposition has historically been divided and fragmented, Morales seems to be handing it an opportunity to unify against him. The situation is complicated by the prospect of constitutional controversy. In a November 17 ruling, the Constitutional Tribunal confirmed that it has jurisdiction over matters under debate in the Constituent Assembly (except its rules of order). If the MAS doesn't back down, it appears that the Constitutional Tribunal's capacity to resolve Bolivia's constitutional crisis will be tested sooner rather than later. End comment. GOLDBERG